Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Pitchers On The Rise (Week 14)

July 2, 2026

Are these pitchers fantasy baseball breakouts or fake outs? Dan analyzes advanced pitcher statistics and surging fantasy baseball SPs for Week 14 of 2026, including Ian Seymour, Jake Bennett, and Brandon Sproat.

This week I take a closer look at three (relatively) young starting pitchers who are on the verge of "breaking out" for their respective clubs. Brandon Sproat is on a roll for his new team in Milwaukee, Jake Bennett is showing off impressive control in Boston, and Ian Seymour is proving that he probably should have been in Tampa's starting rotation since the start of the season.

If you are new to this column, remember that the goal is to look at several pitchers each week who are showing signs of "breaking out." That term gets thrown around a lot in our industry, but to me, it means they're flirting with the possibility of improving their baseline performance across a larger sample.

So, while we typically look at younger pitchers as potential "breakouts," I won't limit myself to only youngsters. The concept of the breakout can be applied to pitchers of all experience levels, as we have seen numerous examples of pitchers improving significantly from season to season, even into their 30s. All roster percentages are courtesy of Yahoo! Let's see which of these arms we can trust going forward and where we can expect regression! All statistics were current through Wednesday, July 1.

Brandon Sproat, Milwaukee Brewers

• 21% Rostered
• 2025 stats: 20.2 IP, 4.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 20.2% K%, 8.3% BB%
• 2026 stats: 75 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 25.3% K%, 10.8% BB%

Sproat's season-long numbers aren't much to get excited about, as his ratios are still pretty brutal. But his most recent body of work has been pretty good, and with Milwaukee's track record of maximizing the potential of its starting pitchers, I'm intrigued by Sproat, a former highly rated Mets prospect.

Brandon Sproat over his last four starts:

3.00 ERA
21 IP
26 K https://t.co/LOPCqRrBXT pic.twitter.com/R6dq91j7VC

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) July 1, 2026

His 17 strikeouts over his last two starts came against the K-prone Cincinnati Reds, but is there more to Sproat's recent success? Or did he take advantage of this great matchup for strikeouts?

Sproat's June results were by far the best of his season thus far, as he posted a 3.46 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 21.2% K-BB% across 26 innings. His lone "bad start" came against the Guardians when he allowed four earned runs on only two hits, one of those hits just happened to be a grand slam by Daniel Schneeman.

So what's he doing differently, and can he sustain this recent success?

The biggest difference in his pitch mix is an increase in four-seam fastball usage. Milwaukee recognized pretty quickly that Sproat's 96-97 mph fastball is a better pitch than his sinker, which is missing fewer bats and getting hit harder. He's still technically leading with the sinker and cutter at 25% usage on each pitch, but the four-seamer is quickly catching up at 22% usage, and he's been leading with it at around 30% usage this month.

Sproat's breaking balls are both quite effective. His sweeper is deployed primarily against righties and carries a .153 xBA and 41.5% Whiff%. He goes curveball/changeup to lefties with both pitches carrying a 34% Whiff%, but the curveball has been hit hard when batters make contact, as he's allowed five home runs on the pitch and a .542 xSLG.

More four-seamers and fewer cutters/sinkers are going to bode well for his strikeout potential, but he's going to have to continue showing us better batted ball results before I can truly get on board with the breakout. If he can trim that 10.8% BB% by a few points, that would help considerably, too.

Still, his SIERA of 4.05 and xERA of 4.64 back up a conclusion that he's definitely better than a 5+ ERA. How much better remains to be seen, but I think being bullish on him based on his talent and the Brewers' track record is reasonable.

Verdict: Sproat is well worth adding in fantasy based on his upside, but his range of outcomes is still likely pretty wide. The recent results are encouraging, but we need to see a larger sample size before being too confident that he's found his stride. Add him in deeper formats, but I wouldn't cut anyone who's providing solid stats to chase Sproat's upside either.

Jake Bennett, Boston Red Sox

• 20% Rostered
• 2025 Triple-A stats: 75.1 IP, 2.27 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 21.5% K%, 6.4% BB%
• 2026 MLB stats: 33 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 19.4% K%, 5.4% BB%

It's time now to break down our cover athlete, Boston rookie left-hander Jake Bennett. If you love strikeout pitchers, then Bennett might not be the guy for you. But if you have a thing for ground balls and excellent control, then read on!

Bennett is a product of the Washington Nationals' farm system who was acquired by the Red Sox last winter in exchange for pitcher Luis Perales. Bennett was a second-round pick of the Nationals back in 2022, but missed the entire 2024 season after having Tommy John surgery.

Bennett wasn't a flamethrower before the injury, but had some strikeout success at the lower levels of the Washington farm system. Now, he's remade himself into a very effective groundball pitcher who doesn't rely on fastball velocity as he sits around 92 mph on his four-seamer and sinker.

Jake Bennett twirled a 💎 for the @RedSox against the Yankees at Fenway Park.

Boston's No. 6 prospect kept a no-hitter into the fifth as he whiffed three over 6 1/3 frames of one-run ball. pic.twitter.com/D9apKBGQIE

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 27, 2026

As we can see from his Statcast profile, Bennett leans heavily on his four-seamer, sinker, and changeup while mixing in the occasional curveball or sweeper. This leads to a lot of contact (89.6% Z-Contact%), especially because Bennett pounds the zone with strikes. He's been excellent at getting ahead of hitters, too, with a 64.3% F-Strike%, which allows him to deploy his best pitch - the changeup - in pitchers' counts.

The changeup has a 34% Whiff% and a .144 xwOBA while coming in right around 10 mph slower than his fastball/sinker combo. He tunnels all three pitches quite well, creating more deception and keeping hitters honest.

Bennett's sinker, like most sinkers, doesn't miss many bats. But it does have above-average vertical drop and horizontal run, which means hitters rarely square it up and often pound it into the ground.

While he won't grade out well in Stuff+ (just 91) due to so many sinkers and changeups, Bennett has an elite Location+ grade of 116. We rarely see young pitchers with such pinpoint accuracy. The margins are always thin for pitchers who rely on control, sequencing, and weak contact, but Bennett has done an incredible job so far at pitching to his strengths and maximizing his stuff.

Ultimately, I'd love to see him lean into his breaking pitches more to increase his strikeout potential. And it's good to see him sitting at a 12.2% SwStr% right now, a sign that he could increase that 19% to a more desirable 22-24% range in time.

He should have a spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future with Connelly Early heading the IL, and there's little to no reason for Boston to send him back to the minors this year in what looks like a lost season in terms of the playoffs.

Verdict: I am absolutely buying into Jake Bennett as a breakout candidate. He's an unconventional one, in that we are banking on his elite control and groundball rate more than strikeouts, but I think he could still be a very valuable fantasy asset going forward for the rest of the season.

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

• 23% Rostered
• 2025 stats: 57 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 26.4% K%, 7.9% BB%
• 2026 stats: 50 IP, 4.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 25.1% K%, 9.7% BB%

Seymour started the year in the bullpen for Tampa, where he has worked as a traditional reliever before being transitioned into the "bulk reliever" role lately. He's started only eight games in his young career, and just three games this season. He is scheduled to start against Kansas City today and won't have an opener ahead of him.

Seymour was a very effective pitcher in 57 starts last season, so it was a bit of a surprise that he didn't break camp as at least the fifth starter for Tampa this year. That's neither here nor there now, and his recent production as a starter and bulk reliever has put him in contention to stick in the rotation going forward.

Ian Seymour today:

6.2 IP
0 H ‼️
0 R
1 BB
7 K’s

He carried a no-hitter through the 8th for Tampa! pic.twitter.com/u3BZI14V8G

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) June 25, 2026

Seymour's arsenal consists mainly of four pitches - his changeup, sweeper, four-seamer, and sinker. He throws his slider, cutter, and curveball so rarely that it's hardly worth digging into those other pitches. This year, he's reduced his four-seamer usage, while throwing a few more sinkers instead and drastically increasing his sweeper usage.

The sweeper increase likely has a lot to do with being a 1-2 inning guy for much of the early part of the season. However, you can't ignore how good the pitch has been (.174 xBA, 39.6% Whiff%). His trademark pitch is still the changeup, however, which he's leading with (33% usage) and getting solid results (.141 BA, 33.3% Whiff%).

His four-seamer has actually been a better pitch than his sinker, which has been hit hard. Even at only around 91-92 mph, the four-seamer can be effective with 17.7 inches of induced vertical break and because he has hitters sitting on his changeup at 83 mph so often.

Unlike Bennett, Seymour does have some tantalizing strikeout potential. He's sitting at a 25.1% K% on a 13% SwStr%. His walk rate is up a bit this year, but is still under 10%, so not a total red flag.

Both his SIERA (3.90) and xERA (3.35) are lower than his current 4.32 ERA, and nothing jumps out at me in terms of BABIP, LOB%, or HR/FB either.

If Tampa allows Seymour to settle into a full-time starting role, he's absolutely a young pitcher with plenty of potential - both in real life and fantasy baseball. His profile reminds me a lot of Joey Cantillo in terms of being a lefty who doesn't throw hard, but has an elite changeup that can do a lot of damage.

We know Cantillo can be volatile, and his fastball is vulnerable to getting pulverized, and Seymour is also a guy who is heavily reliant on offspeed pitches, too. But these types of left-handed pitchers are certainly worth pursuing in fantasy baseball.

Verdict: I am tentatively buying into a Seymour breakout, but he certainly has some bust potential, too. I like him a bit more than Sproat, I think, but I view him as a little less safe than Bennett - if that makes sense!

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