RADIO
Happy Friday to all of you, fellow Rotoballers. We made it to the weekend, it's finally warm in the northern half of the country, and we have an awesome 13 game Main slate to play with this evening. There's not much to complain about in the DFS world, as we've got good-to-great pitching options and a few stacks that look appealing as well. It's a nice shake up from the past two days, in which there was really just one clear cut pitcher on each slate.
I try to keep this - my Vegas section - updated throughout the day. As moneylines and spreads shift, it's important to realize where and why those are happening (especially in tournaments) so you can adjust accordinly. For now, let's take a look just at the top run projections of the night, starting with the red hot Red Sox at 6 (!!), followed by the also hot Angels (5.3), Astros (5.2) and Nationals (5.2). That Red Sox line opened up at 5.4, so there has been some serious action on the OVER in that space. The Angels and Astros are also up .5 and .4 from their intitial projections, respectively. Half-a-run may sound small, but it's absolutely significant in this regard.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 4/13/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLUCH.
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Gerrit Cole - SP, vs TEX ($10,000)
Admittedly, I was not the biggest fan of Cole leaving the pitching cathedral that is PNC Park to come to the American League and play half off his games in a better hitter's park - but I've changed my stance a bit. Cole has done some great work of taking Brent Strom's advice in throwing his off-speed pitches more frequently, and the results (albeit a small sample) in 2018 have been excellent. He's my top cash game pitcher tonight, for a number of reasons. Quick glance at Vegas shows us he's a massive -285 moneyline favorite tonight and while there are a few games without run projections, his opponent, the Rangers, currently have the lowest projected total at 3.3 runs. Last season, Cole did a pretty good job of inducing ground balls (45%), and even more importantly, keeping the ball out of the air (33% fly ball rate). He's also improved his swinging strike rate (19.6%) and has been missing more bats, building where he left off last season, with a mark of 23% soft contact. The soft contact rate in 2017 is the second best mark of all the other pitchers throwing tonight, too. On top of his run prevention skills, he's become more of a strikeout artist and boasts a 9.3 K/9, and faces a Rangers team that just loves to strike out against right-handed pitching, with their current projected lineup going down 29% of the time.
Also Consider: Andrew Triggs - SP, at SEA ($8,000) - CASH; Eduardo Rodriguez - SP, vs BAL ($6,600) - GPP only
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Gary Sanchez - SP, at DET ($3,700)
A little expensive for my taste, but I think he's the best shot at grabbing a home run from the position tonight. A lot of people may not realize this, but Comerica Park is an excellent park for right-handed power hitters - and ranks third among all stadiums today in that regard. Sanchez, who started the season ice cold, has really warmed up the past two nights, smashing baseballs and his price implied value in each. Tonight, he faces Mike Fiers - a pitcher that posted a 4.46 SIERA last season and a .358 wOBA to right-handed batters. I like Sanchez and his .253 ISO split in tournaments quite a bit this evening.
Also Consider: Buster Posey - C/1B, at SDP ($3,700)
Mitch Moreland - 1B, vs BAL ($3,300)
The Red Sox lefties should have a ball tonight against Chris Tillman, who struggles immensely with lefties. I'm not even sure struggles immensely is accurate - it might sell those struggles short. In 2017-18, Tillman allowed a .449 wOBA to lefties (ad a .393 to RHB) and will face a lineup tonight loaded with talent on both sides. Moreland will have great lineup context and he's priced as a value play relative to the ceiling he offers tonight. Last season, he posted impressive splits against righties, highlighted by a .212 ISO.
Also Consider: Matt Olson - 1B, at SEA ($4,100)
Whit Merrifield - 2B, vs LAA ($3,100)
Look, Andrew Heaney may end up reaching his potential and I think he could be a fine pitcher at some point. Tonight, however, I'd love to pick on his sore elbow with some right-handed bats, seeing as he allowed a slate high .476 wOBA to them over the last 12 months. Merrifield is pretty damn cheap today, hits high in this order and posted a .342 wOBA and .206 ISO split against southpaws last season.
Also Consider: Yoan Moncada - 2B, at MIN ($4,000)
Rafael Devers - 3B, vs BAL ($4,100)
The Red Sox have the highest run projection of the night. It's rpetty easy to see why if you just look at the Orioles starter for tonight, Chris Tillman. Devers brings power and upside here, sandwiched by the safety of great lineup context. Last season, he posted big numbers against righties, highlighted by .215 ISO. This season, he's been smashing baseballs too. The 48% hard hit rate is outstanding. If you need extra convincing here, look at the stats I threw out regarding Tillman's struggles with lefties under Mitch Moreland.
Also Consider: Anthony Rendon - 3B, vs COL ($4,400)
Jordy Mercer - SS, at MIA ($3,100)
Shortstop is a position I am not too enticed by the spend-up options tonight. It's not that there aren't any spots where the higher priced SS could succeed, but I'm not going to break the bank if it isn't a fantastic matchup and there are other positions I'd rather spend up at. Mercer faces a pitcher that allowed a .343 wOBA to righties last season and Mercer, who should be in the two-hole for the hot hitting Pirates, did pretty well over the last year against lefties, too. He posted a .328 wOBA, .176 ISO and has a 20% line drive rate this season.
Also Consider: Marcus Semien - SS, at SEA ($3,000)
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
FanDuel did a tremendous (see also: frustrating; annoying) job of pricing up the elite outfield options today. The number that exceed 5K in price is perhaps more than I have ever seen. There are a number of those guys I want to get in my lineups, including but not limited to - J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Rhys Hoskins, and so on. Spend up at the outfield where you can. But! When you can't, take a look at these value options with more reasonable price tags and a good chance to provide high return on investment.
Jackie Bradley, Jr. - OF, vs BAL ($3,300)
This is nice way to get exposure to the top projected offense of the day. And, while Tillman struggles with batters from both sides, Bradley is a lefty with solid numbers last season in both wOBA and slugging percentage (.310, .410, respectively). If Jackie ends up at the bottom of the order, might I suggest a wrap-around stack with Bradley and then the top of the order in cash games or tournaments.
Nick Williams - OF, at.354 TBR ($2,400)
I am a fan of Jacob Faria quite a bit, but the kid is struggling right now and has allowed 48% hard contact this season in a few starts. Williams, on the other hand, is starting to warm up and provides very nice upside tonight at a bargain bin price. He also happens to boast strong splits in wOBA (.354) and ISO (.224).
Also Consider: Brian Goodwin - OF, vs COL ($3,000)
