Derek Carr (QB, OAK) - 2019 Fantasy Football Sleeper

August 28, 2019

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr may be a fantasy football sleeper and draft value now that the Raiders have a revamped offense. Antonio Losada analyzes Carr's value as a the leader of these half-new Raiders.

You can convince me about drafting a top-tier running back inside the first four or five picks; we're talking about true game-changers there. You can convince me about drafting a top-tier wide receiver from picks five to 15; there are just a few elite-wideouts available, after all. But will you never convince me of getting a quarterback inside the first three rounds, given how flat and deep the position is and how much value/upside is out there to pick in late rounds? No, sir.

Looking at ADP rankings for the 2019 season (PPR leagues), only Patrick Mahomes has an ADP inside the first two rounds (24, almost a 3rd-rounder) as a quarterback. There are two more QBs projected to be selected inside the first five rounds: Aaron Rodgers (ADP of 56) and Deshaun Watson (ADP of 57). After that, everything goes downwards until we find Sam Darnold at the bottom of the list as the worst-ranked QB with an ADP of 166. Between all of the quarterbacks available this season we find Derek Carr as the 23rd-best one (or 3rd-worst, whatever you prefer). The numbers speak for themselves. He's never topped an ADP of 100 (he peaked at that value when Antonio Brown was traded to Oakland) during the past 12 months, he's only on 26% of Yahoo's rosters, and FantasyPro's experts consider him the 170th-best player overall. Not a good outlook.

Even with such a lowly ranked profile, though, you should take Carr into consideration for your 2019 fantasy aspirations. While Carr won't put his game on par with that of fantasy-darlings Mahomes, Rodgers, and Watson, he should neither be considered on the level of Sam Darnold or Josh Allen, who both rank higher than him right now by ADP. Don't get me wrong, I like Darnold's and Allen's upside as sophomores, but I just can't see how those offenses can overperform Oakland's.

Oakland Has The Tools and Carr Can Exploit Them

Derek Carr is entering his sixth season in the league, and he was a Pro Bowler in 2015, 2016, and 2017. He missed out in 2018 but still finished the year with 4,049 yards (12th-most in the league; min. 150 pass attempts), a 68.9 completion percentage (6th), and a 1.81 interception rate (13th). Although those numbers put him on the upper half of the league, the truth is that he's a twenty-ish QB on average. Both Football Outsiders' DYAR and DVOA ranked him 21st and 22nd respectively for the 2018 season, and he could only get the 29th-best QBR (out of 34 ranked players).

Why should you be higher on Carr than most people are and most stats tell? For one, Oakland was a wasteland last season, yet Carr was able to somehow produce. He racked up 216.8 PPR points finishing the season as the QB18, while the Raiders' WR/TE group was one of the ten-worst in the league. Only two players (Jared Cook and Jordy Nelson) spent the whole season in Oakland while getting more than 150 PPR points. When your best passing-option is Jared Cook, you know you're in trouble. Carr did the most of it and helped Cook have a career-year.

For 2019 the Raiders have revamped their offense at every position. Antonio Brown is the new leader at WR, and Josh Jacobs projects as the leading RB. While most probably none of them will carry Oakland to a championship, they could help you and your fantasy team score big-time points if you have Carr in your roster either throwing to Brown or handing Jacobs the ball so he opens the offensive game and gives Carr better looks. The offensive line is also improved and Carr will have more time to throw better (and deeper; he had the second-worst aDOT in the league last year) passes. If Brown can stay out of off-field trouble, Tyrell Williams can repeat his 2018 level of play, and Darren Waller fulfills his sleeper upside at TE, things look good for Carr to best his ADP and give a great ROI to his owners.

Although there are more reliable options, and Carr could ultimately be no more than a valuable backup in standard-format leagues (those with one QB), the upside he carries given his offensive partners is quite high. To be fair, no one is a safe bet down and past the 10th round, but Carr doesn't strike me as a riskier proposition than any other quarterback available at such depth.

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