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The top daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on December 28, 2019. Jake Finnen provides NBA DFS analysis and sleeper picks for building optimal DFS rosters.
There's no shortage of games tonight with 13 on the main slate, so get your researching goggles on and get ready. When it comes to strategy for nights like tonight, it's easy. Pick the the top sources of production at each position. The winning lineups are going to be eight players that all scored 40-50 FPTS, so you will not only need your value plays to hit, but they have to crush their projected.
To help you do just that, instead of advising just two players from each position, we've increased the player pool to five per position. That should help you get a better idea of who to play, and let's be honest, who doesn't like having options. As of right now, I'm seeing Trae Young is going to miss Saturday's game, so with that, Kevin Huerter is likely to take his place in the starting lineup. Try and stay updated on the situation before game time because lineups are always likely to change.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 12/28/19. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. Find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Jarrett Culver - PG/SG, vs. CLE ($3,200)
I've written about Jarrett Culver fairly recently in one of these articles and nothing has really changed since then. He has still yet to have a serious breakout game, but look at his opponent. Even if this game remains close, the Timberwolves don't have the talent to just go with their starters every game. If someone has the hot hand, they need to play them. If you look at Culver's game log, he dominates in the games against younger teams with bad defenses. Dominates MIGHT be a bit of an exaggeration.
Since the Timberwolves play the Cavaliers twice this week, there's a good chance they will want to see how their young point guard fares against another budding team. If Culver can post a performance similar to his games against the Grizzlies, he is going to be one of those guys in a ton of winning lineups. As always, the risk is there since he has yet to find that shooting rhythm.
Bryn Forbes - PG/SG, vs. DET ($3,500)
Bryn Forbes has been streaky, but if you have been playing NBA DFS for any amount of time, you know that Spurs point guards are usually a toss up. Forbes has posted some incredible numbers in quite a few games this season, but playing under Gregg Popovic always comes with it's limitations. He will need to be playing well to secure extra minutes, but with his price and upside, I'll take the chance.
Earlier this season, the Spurs were blown out by the Pistons and Forbes failed to get any momentum going. He has been seeing slightly less minutes as of recently, but that doesn't scare me since San Antonio will need scoring against Detroit and he is one of the only Spurs guards that shoots without hesitation
Jeremy Lamb - SG/SF, @ NOP ($4,900)
The Pelicans have Jrue Holiday as a defensive anchor, but outside of him they struggle to stick with athletic guards that fly around the court. Luckily for us, the Pelicans can score with some of the best teams in the league, despite not being able to defend them well or at all. For the first time in about two weeks, Lamb is back to seeing above 30 minutes, but his price doesn't really reflect that minutes increase. Since he is playing the Pelicans, who let up a ton of points in general, there is no real downside here unless he just has a bad game. Lamb is known to explode on a whim, so until his price bounces back up, Lamb has to be considered on a nightly basis.
Anfernee Simons - SG/SF, vs. LAL ($3,600)
After coming off the most well-rounded game of his career, Anfernee Simons is facing a very stingy Lakers defense. Fortunately for us, Los Angeles rank 20th against opposing point guards and that means Simons has some serious upside in a game where Portland will be desperate for scoring. The Lakers will not want to lose two games in a row to divisional opponents, so while they might roll over the Trail Blazers, Simons is almost guaranteed to see minutes no matter where this game ends up.
Ben McLemore - SG/SF, vs. BKN ($3,700)
Ben McLemore might not be posting the same eye-catching stats that he was earlier this season, but that doesn't change his upside on a nightly basis. Truth be told, it still feels weird trying to paint McLemore as a high-upside player given his career path, but playing with the Rockets fits his play style more than any team he has played for. The Nets are still all over the place in terms of offense, but since they are more than capable of beating good teams, Houston will rely on their supporting cast more often than not.
The Nets have solid defenders, but per usual, they won't sacrifice the likes of Taurean Prince, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Garrett Temple strictly to stop McLemore, so his upside remains high. I still find it funny calling McLemore as high-upside player.
DraftKings DFS Forwards
Paul George - SF, vs. UTA ($7,800)
This pick is more because of his price rather than the matchup. Even against the Jazz defense and Rudy Gobert, Paul George is still a safe play seeing how there are very few defenders that can keep up with him, and it just so happens that one player that could limit George happens to be his teammate. If a superstar that you know will produce has a price this low, you just have to take the risk and hope he goes off. It's not hard for George to have a good game and playing against tougher defenses makes it more likely for great player to have better games. More to come from this game.
Danny Green - SG/SF, @ POR ($3,700)
A ton of people on Twitter think that Snoop Dogg was talking about Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green being unable to hit three's when LeBron James passes to them, but I find that hard to believe given Green's track record and Caldwell-Pope going 2-for-3 from behind the arc that game. Regardless, Danny Green responds well to bad games, but there is always risk when you take players who are primarily shooters. In this case, there are not many shooting guards and small forwards that offer value and upside, but Green is known for going off against anybody. The Trail Blazers like to shoot and that plays directly into Green's hand so this is just another value play with plenty of upside.
Derrick Jones Jr. - SF/PF, vs. PHI ($3,700)
The Heat have played the 76ers twice this year, and the one game that Derrick Jones has played in, the Heat managed to pull out a fairly decisive win. He posted medial stats, but it didn't capture the impact Jones had on this game. His athleticism combined with the Heat's talent and shooting created an offensive dynamic that is going to be tough for any team to stop. Add in that Jones will see minutes because of his defense and there is no real reason to pass on him with that price.
Montrezl Harrell - PF/C, vs. UTA ($3,700)
Just because I suggested both Paul George and Montrezl Harrell in the same article does not mean that I take playing against Rudy Gobert lightly. He is still one, if not THE premier shot blocker in the league and there are plenty of stats and charts that outline his defensive impact. While someone like Ivica Zubac might struggle, the Clippers will need their frontcourt to produce and it is going to come down to how well Harrell is playing. He can hold his own against Gobert, but it is going to be consistent fight in the paint all game.
If any of the secondary scorers on L.A. can offer better spacing, Harrell can utilize his strength and speed against someone like Gobert in the paint. It'll be a tough game, but I'm confident in Harrell's ability to produce against anyone simply because of how he plays and how well he is able to play to his strengths against solid defenders.
Bobby Portis - PF/C, @ WAS ($4,500)
Despite the Knicks being one of the most unpredictable teams this season. Bobby Portis has managed to create his own production even when it seems unlikely. He has bounced around to a few teams, but most recently he has played for the Wizards which would make this, you guessed it, A REVENGE GAME. The Wizards have been abysmal in just about every category, but that's expected as a rebuilding team with so many young players that are still learning the ins-and-out of playing defense in the NBA. Portis has been terribly streaky this season, but his big games have been monstrous. His price is a little higher than what I had hoped, but it still seems low given what he can and should do against his former team.
DraftKings DFS Centers
JaVale McGee - C, @ POR ($3,900)
With both teams likely to miss way too many shots, the rebounds will be all over the place. JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard have basically been splitting the minutes so that is always frightening, but McGee also had one of his higher scoring nights against Portland. It might have only been a 13 point night, but he's only managed to score 13 or higher three times this season. The Trail Blazers have the height that is going to force L.A. to run some bigger lineups, so look for McGee, Howard, and Anthony Davis to all have some serious upside in this contest.
Ersan Ilyasova - PF/C, vs. ORL ($4,300)
There is something about playing veterans a game after they have massive outings. Ersan Ilyasova is a special case because not only did he have a high-scoring game, he absolutely crushed the rebounding category as well. That won't be common for him, but now that we know it is a possibility, that price tag looks better and better every second. The Magic have a very talented frontcourt and in general, they have improved across the board. With that, Milwaukee loves their outside scoring and if this game is closer than the first meeting between the two, look for Ilyasova to improve his production even with so few minutes. If what he did in his most previous game is any indication of what he is capable of, I'd be more worried about his ownership rate rather than the risk.
