RADIO
Is Ubaldo Jimenez Worth Drafting?
Why, you ask, would I waste my time writing about Ubaldo Jimenez? First and foremost, because I’m an Orioles fan. But more importantly, from a fantasy perspective, are the following two reasons:
- He has the most room for improvement among Orioles’ starters.
- Even though he had a horrible 2014, he had an amazing second half of 2013 (84 IP, 1.82 ERA, 100:27 K/BB ratio). Let those numbers sink in.
History and 2014
Although the schedule he faced in the second half of 2013 was anything but tough, those numbers are good against any major league competition. Still, some have argued the second half of 2013 was a fluke, as it was his first success since 2010. That may be fair. While Ubaldo was by 2010 one of the best pitchers in baseball, from 2011 through the first half of 2013 he was one of the worst. The end of 2010 seemed to represent the end of stage one of Ubaldo’s career, which was a pitcher who was very successful relying on a fastball averaging 96 mph.
Until midseason 2013, it appeared that the rest of his career would be that of a pitcher who lost his fastball and could not succeed without it. His fastball velocity dipped dramatically from 96.3 average to 93.9. In 2012 it dropped further to 92.5, and was experiencing a further drop in the first half of 2013. Why then, in the second half of 2013, was he as good as or better than he had ever been? Was it a fluke, or had he entered the third stage of his career, finally learning how to succeed without his dominant fastball of yesteryear?
GMs pondered this question, and most were skeptical, with Ubaldo not signing until after pitchers and catchers reported, and fetching far less than he reportedly was seeking. In 2014 he was awful, to put it kindly. Because his second half of 2013 was so dominant, this article explores all the indicators objectively, albeit with hopes of answering that Ubaldo is more what he showed in the second half of 2013 than what he showed in 2014.
Who is the True Ubaldo?
The two factors that stand out most between the second half of 2013 and 2014 are his velocity decline and increased walk rate. Those two will be explored in depth, with a list of other short reasons to follow.
Velocity Decrease
While 2013 Ubaldo suggested he could succeed at his new, lower velocity, 2014 presented a new challenge – another significant velocity decline. However, there are reasons to suggest that his velocity will be higher in 2015 than 2014. Ubaldo’s season-long velocity was pulled down by a low August velocity, which was the month he returned from a DL stint with an ankle injury. He also did not have a full offseason's worth of work, since he was not signed until after pitchers and catchers reported. A full offseason with a team could potentially lead to increased velocity as well as better feel on his pitches. Realistically, I predict that Ubaldo’s velocity will fall between his 2013 and 2014 levels.
Can Ubaldo succeed with this diminished velocity? Probably, but the stars will need to align. However, his most successful months in 2013 were when his velocity was highest, and his worst month in 2014 is when his velocity was lowest, so there probably is a link. Thus, while there can be a successful Ubaldo with diminished velocity, the higher his velocity is, the more likely he is to be successful.
Walk Rate Increase
Ubaldo’s 2014 walk rate was 5.53/9 IP. His career walk rate is 4.16, with his previous high coming in 2012 (4.84). Such a drastic change in only a season's time could certainly be a fluke. Pitching coach Dave Wallace helped Jimenez make a mechanical change late last season, and the Orioles have had previous success with poor control pitchers (see: Bud Norris). These are promising factors moving forward. I will expect his walk rate to near his career average, and will project his 2015 rate to be near his career rate of 4.16, and if I had to bet, I’d take the under.
Other Factors
Positive
- Due to Ubaldo’s wide array of pitches, he needs both a consistent catcher and a full offseason.
- Even though his groundball rates have dropped from the beginning of his career, his 2013 second-half success came with a low ground ball rate.
Negative
- Jimenez is not assured of a spot in the 2015 rotation.
- AL East foes like the Red Sox and Jays have revamped their lineups.
Conclusion
As a tall pitcher (6’5), Ubaldo is likely to have more trouble repeating his delivery. Thus, his inconsistency is not completely unexpected. But as he showed in 2013, he can put it all together for stretches, and when he does, he can be dominant. While the smart money is on him being no more than a streaming option as a cheap source of strikeouts at the expense of other categories, he is worth a speculative add in deeper leagues and worth a spot on watch lists in other leagues.
Because March/April has historically been his worst month by traditional metrics, I would not lose complete hope if he struggles out of the gate. A look at Jimenez's overall numbers in 2014 puts him in the same conversation as pitchers like Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson. In other words, when he’s on, he is very capable of striking out a batter an inning, while walking under four batters per 9. However, as an early offseason projection, I would expect 8.5 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 4.20 ERA, and 11 wins, with room for both upside and serious downside.
