MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 6/17/26)

June 17, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 6/17/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

I'm usually team "no days off" when it comes to content, but yesterday was a much-needed reprieve for me, and now I'm refreshed and ready to attack the Wednesday slate. It's a good mix of game bets and player props in today's article!

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-117)

Casey Mize, our cover athlete, makes his return to the Tigers' rotation today and will face off against Astros' righty Peter Lambert in this one. Mize brings a perfect 9-0 NRFI record into this game and an impressive 2.27 ERA this season.

Lambert has been a nice surprise for Houston, too, as he's posted a 3.47 ERA in 10 starts this season. He hasn't been perfect in the first inning, but still has a strong 7-3 NRFI record this season.

Neither offense scares me all that much either. Detroit has scored in the first inning just four times in its last ten games, while Houston has done it just twice in that span. I'm banking on both pitchers' early-inning success in this one.

MLB Over/Under Bets

NYM at CIN OVER 8.5 runs (-132)

This line is sitting where you can either eat some juice for the lower number, or take on some risk by going over 9.5 at plus money. I have a lot of other really good odds on today's card, so I am going to play this one a bit safer with the lower number at 8.5.

Sal Stewart connects for a 3-run homer 💪 pic.twitter.com/75ma1k7vas

— MLB (@MLB) June 16, 2026

We usually love offense when the Reds are at home, and today I think the bats get it done against Nick Lodolo and Nolan McLean. Lodolo enters with an ERA over five and a home ERA of nearly six. Meanwhile, McLean has been on a downward spiral. After starting the year in top form, McLean has now seen his ERA rise to 4.01 on the year. He allowed seven earned runs the first time he faced the Reds and isn't missing bats like he was earlier this year.

TOR at BOS OVER 9.5 runs (-106) 

Max Scherzer is on the bump for the Blue Jays today as they face their division rival, the Red Sox. It was cool to see Mad Max get his 3,500th strikeout in his first start in a month and a half; however, Scherzer was still hit hard as he gave up five earned runs in just 3.1 innings, including this home run to Bryce Harper.

Bryce Harper opposite-field home run 💪 pic.twitter.com/DqTK1WYkUZ

— MLB (@MLB) June 10, 2026

Scherzer's ERA is now over 10, and it looks like his incredible career is finally winding down. He just doesn't have the juice on his pitches anymore and is getting battered out there in nearly every start.

Boston counters with lefty Jake Bennett, who has a 5.28 ERA across three starts. He's not missing bats, either, and the Sox have gone over well over their game total in two of his three starts. Look for the offenses to thrive today against a washed-up former legend and a rookie who has yet to get his footing in the majors.

COL at CHC UNDER 10.5 runs (-127) 

The wind is supposed to be blowing in at Wrigley tonight, so this high total puzzles me, especially when the first two games of this series have ended up with nine and seven total runs, respectively.

Javier Assad is on the bump for the Cubs, and he's been great in two straight starts since rejoining the rotation. The Rockies counter with lefty Shane Sullivan and then likely a healthy dose of their bullpen. Again, there's nothing about this game that stands out to me as an advantage for the offenses, so I'm rolling with the under in this one.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Casey Mize OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+107)

Let's revisit Mize against the Astros! He's having a career year, especially in the strikeout department, as he's sitting at a 26.5% K% this year. Meanwhile, Houston has a 25.6% K% vs. RHP over the last two weeks. Mize should not have his prop set this low in this spot, and if you're wondering if he's fully ready to return, he went five innings with five strikeouts in his lone minor league rehab start.

Shane McClanahan OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Why is McClanahan getting no respect in this matchup against the Dodgers? Sure, they are the Dodgers, but they also have the seventh-worst K% vs. LHP (25.4%) over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, McClanahan has been really good lately, posting six or more strikeouts in two straight starts and raising his K% on the season to 24.6%.

Braxton Ashcraft OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Ashcraft hasn't got to six strikeouts in two straight starts, but still sports some of the best strikeout stats on this slate with a 27% K% and 13% SwStr%. If Mitch Keller can get seven Athletics last night, then I think Ashcraft is a great bet for six here at plus odds. The Athletics are always dangerous in that ballpark, but Ashcraft is having a career year and has terrific stuff.

Sandy Alcantara OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-109)

Sandy has seen his strikeouts tick up lately as he's whiffed seven in each of his last two starts. He'll face a Phillies team that has the worst K% vs. RHP over the last two weeks (28.4%) today in a boom/bust type of matchup. If he can keep the ball in the park, I love his chances as he usually pitches pretty deep into games.

Kyle Bradish UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (+121)

Not only is Bradish facing the same Seattle team two times in a row (usually tough on the pitcher), but he's also failed to get to six strikeouts in four straight starts. He continues to walk nearly three hitters per start and rack up big pitch counts that prevent him from going deep into his starts. Seattle loves to draw walks and gets Cal Raleigh back in the lineup!

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