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Frank identifies five potential SP fantasy baseball busts based on ADPs - expensive starting pitchers to avoid in 2026 drafts. These pitchers may disappoint.
Part of building a championship-caliber fantasy baseball team is not only nailing breakout players but also avoiding potential busts. Staying away from landmines can be just as valuable as locking in someone who hits their ceiling.
In this article, we're going to focus on five starting pitchers who are clear avoids for me this season. Each of these pitchers is drafted in the first five rounds of NFBC drafts, so they come with hefty price tags. In my eyes, none of these pitchers is worth this cost, given the various risks, including injury, age, and performance.
With that in mind, find out why Bryan Woo, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Logan Webb, and Joe Ryan are my five starting pitcher busts to avoid in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. We'll use Draft Champions NFBC ADP since February 6, as it is the most active platform right now.
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Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners
NFBC ADP: 36.32
Bryan Woo is coming off a phenomenal season, in which he logged 186 2/3 innings, posting a 2.94 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. The advanced metrics look great as well, including a 3.30 SIERA, a 12.4% swinging-strike rate, and a 105 Stuff+ and 110 Location+. Entering his age-26 season in a pitcher-friendly environment, there's a lot to love about Woo this year. So why am I fading him?
The answer is simple: you're paying a premium price for a pitcher with significant injury risk. Not only did Woo deal with a pectoral injury that affected his usage in the playoffs, but he's also dealt with elbow inflammation back in 2024. Just because Woo turned in a high-volume year in 2025 doesn't mean that we should feel overly confident that it will happen again.
You have to use a third-round pick in order to secure Woo this year. If I wanted to bet on an injury risk, I'd just wait a few picks and target Cole Ragans, who has more strikeout upside. In short, this is not a bet against Woo's skills. It's about avoiding paying a premium for high-injury-risk assets. If you don't want to go with Ragans here, there are other high-end hitters available at this cost, including Yordan Alvarez.
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
NFBC ADP: 38.55
Chris Sale is coming off an injury-plagued season, where he was limited to only 125 2/3 innings after dealing with a rib issue. However, the numbers looked great, including a 2.58 ERA and 1.o7 WHIP with 32 walks and 165 strikeouts. Due to this strong production, we're not getting any discount on Sale as he enters his age-37 season.
Why would I pay a premium price on a 37-year-old who missed time as recently as last year? I get it, there have been no signs of decline, but "Father Time is undefeated." I don't want to take a risk on a player approaching 40, especially at this price. If you look at the list of pitchers in the top-50, Sale is one of two who are over 36 years old, joining Jacob deGrom.
I'm often targeting Ragans at Sale's ADP, so I'm never getting the veteran lefty in drafts. I know that Sale is healthy right now, but he's dealt with injuries throughout his career. I need a bigger discount to buy in at his advanced age. The problem is, most of the competition is high on Sale, so you don't often see him fall in your drafts. For that reason, I'm out.
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
NFBC ADP: 49.16
Jacob deGrom finally stayed healthy last season, putting up a 2.97 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in 172 2/3 innings, which was his most since 2019. You have to love that deGrom is in a pitcher-friendly environment, demonstrating elite command and high-end ratios.
However, similar to Sale, this is a case where I don't want to pay up for a pitcher who is entering his age-38 season. What's worse with deGrom compared to Sale is that we're starting to see a decline in skill. Last season, deGrom's 27.7% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2016. He put up a 111 Stuff+, which was his lowest since they started tracking that in 2020.
In other words, not only are we taking on age and injury risk, but also a pitcher who is trending downward. I don't want to invest a fourth- or fifth-round pick in this type of profile. I prefer to take a hitter or an elite closer (depending on the format) at this price point. The time to buy deGrom is when you get an injury discount, not after a 170+ inning season. Let someone else take a chance on this veteran.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
NFBC ADP: 55.23
Logan Webb is a high-volume starter who always feels like a high-floor pick. He's coming off one of the best seasons of his career, where he put up a 3.22 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 224 strikeouts in 207 innings. You may be reading this and asking, " How can such a consistent pitcher, who continues to play in a pitcher-friendly environment, be viewed as a potential bust?
My response: I don't want to pay a premium price for a pitcher who has put up a sub-23% strikeout rate in his three previous seasons before last year. Yes, he bumped that up to 26.2%, but is that the new norm, or just an outlier? I don't want to pay a top-60 pick to find out. If Webb goes back to his career norm in strikeout rate, he's not going to pay off this ADP.
It's also worth noting that Webb has consistently been damaging to your WHIP, putting up a 1.23+ WHIP in each of the last two seasons. The time to take Webb was last year, when he was priced at a discount. You don't want to be buying in at peak prices on pitchers like this. You can just wait a few rounds and target Framber Valdez if you want a high-volume, groundball specialist with a strong track record. Let your opponents get enamored with Webb's volume.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
NFBC ADP: 67.14
Joe Ryan is another pitcher coming off a strong season, registering a 3.42 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. The peripherals look great as well, as highlighted by a 3.32 SIERA. Entering his age-30 season, there's a lot to like with Ryan. So why does he find himself on my list of five starting pitcher busts? For one, it's his issue with home runs.
Ryan has allowed a 1.37, 1.27, and 1.78 HR/9 in his last three seasons. This is because he consistently allows a lot of hard contact, including an 11.5% barrel rate last year, which ranked in the sixth percentile, per Baseball Savant. If I'm paying up for a frontline starter, I don't want him to have the risk of a bloated ERA due to a home run problem.
On top of that, Ryan is playing for a team that is trending downward. There's a good chance that the Twins will be among the worst teams in the American League this season, especially after losing Pablo Lopez to Tommy John surgery. That means it could be tough for Ryan to rack up wins this season. At this cost, I'd rather target a pitcher like Jesus Luzardo, who at least plays for a contending team like the Phillies and should be in a far better situation to earn wins.
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