Identifying Running Back Fantasy Football Breakouts: Build-A-Breakout Workshop

John's running back fantasy football breakouts, draft targets, RB sleepers for 2025. His top undervalued fantasy football running backs based on predictive stats.

Another football season on the horizon means plenty of well-defined fantasy lines drawn in the sand between spreadsheet quants, tape bros, and ball-knowers alike. Sure, a short list of the most elite players in the game draws consensus, but fantasy football's won on the margins. Anyone can auto-draft a fantasy squad through a half dozen rounds with some degree of success — and though imperfect, ADP's mostly accurate atop draft boards.

We're spending August at the Build-A-Breakout workshop for one of my favorite offseason exercises. Without so much as looking at ADP, I create a wish list of ideal statistical parameters — then go back and try to find matches for fantasy bargains.

Now that we have our QB breakout in the bag, I'll pick up where we left off with the RB1 position. Using a combination of volume/production, rush efficiency, and receiving metrics, we'll whittle down the player pool until we find the very best draft-day value by the numbers.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
• Best ball fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Running Backs: Volume and Production

Of the 37 running backs with +150 touches in 2024, just a small portion stand out from the pack when compared under the microscope. Remember, nothing's more predictive of future production than fantasy scoring in the past — so let's start with the workload leaderboards.

Only 11 RBs Averaged +18.0 Touches Per Game   

• Saquon Barkley, PHI — 23.6 Touches/Game
• Jonathan Taylor, IND — 22.9 Touches/Game
• Kyren Williams, LA — 21.9 Touches/Game
• Bijan Robinson, ATL — 21.5 Touches/Game
• Alvin Kamara, NO — 21.1 Touches/Game
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 20.2 Touches/Game
• Joe Mixon, HOU — 20.1 Touches/Game
• Josh Jacobs, GB — 19.8 Touches/Game
• Chuba Hubbard, CAR — 19.5 Touches/Game
• Tony Pollard, TEN — 18.8 Touches/Game
• Kenneth Walker III, SEA — 18.1 Touches/Game
• Aaron Jones, MIN — 18.0 Touches/Game

Only 10 RBs Scored +17.0 Fantasy Points Per Game

• Saquon Barkley, PHI — 22.2 Pt/Game
• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 21.4 Pt/Game
• Bijan Robinson, ATL — 20.1 Pt/Game
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 19.8 Pt/Game
• Alvin Kamara, NO — 19.0 Pt/Game
• De'Von Achane, MIA — 17.6 Pt/Game
• Jonathan Taylor, IND — 17.5 Pt/Game
• Josh Jacobs, GB — 17.2 Pt/Game
• Joe Mixon, HOU — 17.2 Pt/Game
• Kyren Williams, LA — 17.0 Pt/Game

Only Seven RBs Earned +60.0% Of Team Rush Share

• Kyren Williams, LA — 72.6% Team Rush
• Bijan Robinson, ATL — 63.1% Team Rush
• Chase Brown, CIN — 62.4% Team Rush
• Jonathan Taylor, IND — 62.3% Team Rush
• Chuba Hubbard, CAR — 62.3% Team Rush
• D'Andre Swift, CHI — 60.4% Team Rush
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 60.2% Team Rush

Only Six RBs Commanded +50.0% Touch Per Snap Rate  

• David Montgomery, DET — 57.9% Touch/Snap
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 56.7% Touch/Snap
• Najee Harris, PIT — 54.2% Touch/Snap
• Joe Mixon, HOU — 52.4% Touch/Snap
• Josh Jacobs, GB — 52.2% Touch/Snap
• James Cook, BUF — 51.6% Touch/Snap

Only Five RBs Handled +25 Goal-To-Go Attempts

• Josh Jacobs, GB — 34 GTG Attempts
• David Montgomery, DET — 29 GTG Attempts
• Kyren Williams, LA — 28 GTG Attempts
• James Cook, BUF — 27 GTG Attempts
• Bijan Robinson, ATL — 26 GTG Attempts

Only Four RBs Scored +0.55 Fantasy Points Per Snap

• David Montgomery, DET — 0.58 Points/Snap
• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 0.58 Points/Snap
• James Cook, BUF — 0.58 Points/Snap
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 0.56 Points/Snap

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Running Backs: Rushing Efficiency

Sometimes I think we're too quick to handwave the importance of backfield talent. Sure, touches usually translate directly into points — but we've seen plenty of RBs fail to provide weekly viability despite heavy workloads. Look no further than Javonte Williams out in Denver last year, posting RB1 touch counts for a month straight but just a backend RB3 finish to show for it.

Having access to all sorts of fancy per-snap data opens the door to a slew of new efficiency stats. While none can replace a 20-touch contest apples to apples, it's undoubtedly helpful in distinguishing between the game's elite runners.

Only Eight RBs Eclipsed +4.8 Yards Per Carry

• Derrick Henry, BAL — 5.9 YPC
• Saquon Barkley, PHI — 5.8 YPC
• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 5.6 YPC
• Bucky Irving, TB — 5.4 YPC
• Jordan Mason, SF — 5.2 YPC
• James Cook, BUF — 4.9 YPC
• Chuba Hubbard, CAR — 4.8 YPC
• Bijan Robinson ATL — 4.8 YPC

Only Seven RBs Achieved +3.4 Yards After Contact Per Attempt

• Bucky Irving, TB — 4.0 YAC/Att
• Tank Bigsby, JAX — 3.7 YAC/Att
• Tyler Allgeier, ATL — 3.6 YAC/Att
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 3.5 YAC/Att
• Chuba Hubbard, CAR — 3.5 YAC/Att
• Josh Jacobs, GB — 3.5 YAC/Att
• Tony Pollard, TEN — 3.4 YAC/Att

Only Six RBs Exceeded +50.0% Success Rate

• Bijan Robinson, ATL — 56.0% Success Rate
• Tyler Allgeier, ATL — 54.0% Success Rate
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 53.0% Success Rate
• David Montgomery, DET — 52.0% Success Rate
• Chuba Hubbard, CAR — 50.0% Success Rate
• Rico Dowdle, DAL — 50.0% Success Rate

Only Six RBs Topped +10.0% Explosive Rush Rate

• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 13.6% Explosive Rush
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 11.4% Explosive Rush
• James Conner, ARI — 11.0% Explosive Rush
• J.K. Dobbins, LAC — 10.8% Explosive Rush
• Jordan Mason, SF — 10.5% Explosive Rush
• Tyler Allgeier, ATL — 10.2% Explosive Rush

Only Four RBs Earned +0.10 Expected Points Added Per Rush

• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 0.14 EPA/Rush
• Derrick Henry, BAL — 0.11 EPA/Rush
• Bucky Irving, TB — 0.11 EPA/Rush
• Saquon Barkley, PHI — 0.10 EPA/Rush

DERRICK HENRY. 44 YDS. TD. WOW. ⚔️

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/W1NbVzsc0Y

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 12, 2025

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Running Backs: Receiving Upside

While I've consistently complained that running back receptions get weighted disproportionately, you can't always fight city hall. Like it or not, RBs that produce in the pass game provide a simultaneous ceiling and floor — especially on bad teams that constantly find themselves down late. Ignore dual-threat tailbacks at your own risk.

Only Eight RBs Earned +11.0% Team Target Share

• Alvin Kamara, NO — 17.2% Team Target
• De'Von Achane, MIA — 15.3% Team Target
• Bijan Robinson, ATL — 13.4% Team Target
• Breece Hall, NYJ — 12.9% Team Target
• Javonte Williams, DEN — 12.8% Team Target
• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 12.1% Team Target
• Aaron Jones, MIN — 12.0% Team Target
• Tony Pollard, TEN — 11.2% Team Target

Only Seven RBs Caught +7 Receptions Aligned In The Slot

• De'Von Achane, MIA — 25 Slot Rec
• Alvin Kamara, NO — 12 Slot Rec
• Bijan Robinson, ATL — nine Slot Rec
• Bucky Irving, TB — eight Slot Rec
• Rachaad White, TB — eight Slot Rec
• Brian Robinson Jr., WAS — eight Slot Rec
• Tony Pollard, TEN — seven Slot Rec

Only Five RBs Averaged +1.6 Yards Per Route Run

• David Montgomery, DET — 2.3 YPRR
• Alvin Kamara, NO — 1.8 YPRR
• Jahmyr Gibbs, DET — 1.7 YPRR
• Bucky Irving, TB — 1.7 YPRR
• James Conner, ARI — 1.6 YPRR

Alvin Kamara made this look so easy
pic.twitter.com/uj8lqaFpv4

— CHANNEL TN (@CHANNEL_TN_) May 9, 2025

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Running Backs: Conclusion

There's a lot to unpack in the RB1 discussion, but what got my wheels turning is that you won't hear me complaining about the work. Oversimplifying this relatively wide array of statistics down to sheer appearances yields two crystal clear backfield values. However, each comes with associated red flags that come with existing on the edges.

First, it's King Henry lighting up the rush-related spreadsheets. Obviously, we all know he's excellent. However, you'll need to commit to age as just a number — at almost 32 years old, the only hole in Henry's game exists in the pass game (with a disproportionate punishment attached). Given the relative discount compared to other clear RB standouts like Robinson and Gibbs, I'd strongly assert any deficiencies are baked into the price.

As someone who hasn't drafted Henry yet this season, I'm getting extremely uneasy right now.

Conversely, Kamara's fantasy pendulum swings in the opposite direction, making up for a lack of volume and explosivity on the ground with elite utilization in the pass game. Similar to Henry, you can squint and see warts — but once again I'd argue all downsides being accounted for at ADP ~55 (especially in PPR formats).

So, depending on your digestion of this exercise, there are different answers to a difficult question. Regardless of your flavor, it has essentially narrowed the pathway for our 2025 RB plan. If you're in a pole position to draft Robinson or Gibbs, do that. If not, circle Henry and Irving in the second round as potential first-round returns.

In the event you miss out again or decide to pass on Hero-RBs, queue up Kamara, Hubbard, and Pollard. Suddenly, our laundry list of stats more closely resembles a roadmap.

Granted, you probably didn't need me or some robust database to tell you Robinson and Gibbs could break fantasy football this year. That said, after much deliberation, Atlanta's backup Allgeier just earned a spot as my top handcuff in the game. First off, I refuse to put any bad injury vibes into the universe. So let's say Robinson decides to pursue a life of silent meditation for some reason, Allgeier's stuff pops with RB1 potential.

Don't forget when Robinson missed Atlanta's 2023 Week 7 tilt in Tampa Bay with an illness, Allgeier touched the rock 24 times for over 110 scrimmage yards. Currently going off the board as the RB52 around pick 175, Allgeier's a perfect low-risk, high-reward lotto ticket with all the data to support it.

Tyler Allgeier appreciation post 😤pic.twitter.com/cNEEAd65Y8

— Rise Up Walker (@RiseUpReader) June 9, 2025

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