Identifying Quarterback Fantasy Football Breakouts: Build-A-Breakout Workshop

August 12, 2025

John's quarterback fantasy football breakouts, draft targets, QB sleepers for 2025. His top undervalued fantasy football quarterbacks based on predictive stats.

Welcome to my quarterback fantasy football breakouts article, looking at undervalued QBs to target in 2025 fantasy drafts. With the summer coming to an end, we have another football season on the horizon, which means plenty of well-defined fantasy lines in the sand between spreadsheet quants, tape bros, and ball-knowers alike. Sure, consensus may agree on the short list of the truly elite players at each position, but fantasy football's won on the margins. Anyone can use auto-draft and find some degree of success by using consensus ADP, but identifying the true breakouts is where your team can come out on top.

This August, we're heading to the Build-A-Breakout workshop for one of my favorite offseason exercises. Without so much as looking at ADP, I create a wish list of ideal statistical parameters — then go back and try to find any matches outside the top 75 overall players for fantasy football bargains.

Today, we begin under center with the quarterback position, one often overlooked in 1-QB formats. Using a combination of production, efficiency, and rushing metrics, we'll whittle down the player pool until we find the very best draft-day value by the numbers.

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Quarterbacks: Production

Nothing's more predictive of future production than fantasy scoring in the past. Of all the quarterbacks in our sample, just a small portion stand out in terms of well-rounded passing performance...

(Stats cover all 44 quarterbacks with +300 attempts going back through 2023)

Only 10 QBs Averaged +18.0 Fantasy Points Per Game

• Lamar Jackson, BAL — 23.1 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Josh Allen, BUF — 22.7 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Jalen Hurts, PHI — 21.0 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Jayden Daniels, WAS — 20.9 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Joe Burrow, CIN — 19.3 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Baker Mayfield, TB — 18.8 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Bo Nix, DEN — 18.7 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Dak Prescott, DAL — 18.4 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Brock Purdy, SF — 18.1 Fantasy Points Per Game
• Jared Goff, DET — 18.0 Fantasy Points Per Game

Only Eight QBs Threw +50 Touchdowns

• Baker Mayfield, TB — 69 Passing TDs
• Jared Goff, DET — 67 Passing TDs
• Lamar Jackson, BAL — 65 Passing TDs
• Joe Burrow, CIN — 58 Passing TDs
• Josh Allen, BUF — 57 Passing TDs
• Jordan Love, GB — 57 Passing TDs
• Patrick Mahomes, KC — 53 Passing TDs
• Brock Purdy, SF — 51 Passing TDs

Only Five QBs Eclipsed +8,000 Passing Yards

• Jared Goff, DET — 9,204 Passing Yards
• Baker Mayfield, TB — 8,544 Passing Yards
• Brock Purdy, SF — 8,144 Passing Yards
• Patrick Mahomes, KC — 8,111 Passing Yards
• Josh Allen, BUF — 8,037 Passing Yards

Only Three QBs Attempted +115 Deep Balls

• Jared Goff, DET — 130
• Brock Purdy, SF — 128
• Baker Mayfield, TB — 118

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Quarterbacks: Efficiency

Unlike composite box score stats that can be compiled through volume, quarterback efficiency metrics offer a more rate-based perspective on success — one that can then be applied across larger samples to identify breakouts. Something like Expected Points Added Per Attempt (EPA/Attempt) in particular helps us highlight positive play that otherwise might get lost in the shuffle.

Only 12 QBs Completed +70% Of Pass Attempts

• Tua Tagovailoa, MIA — 70.8% Completion Rate
• Jared Goff, DET — 69.7% Completion Rate
• Joe Burrow, CIN — 69.2% Completion Rate
• Jayden Daniels, WAS — 69.0% Completion Rate
• Derek Carr, NO — 68.2% Completion Rate
• Baker Mayfield, TB — 67.9% Completion Rate
• Dak Prescott, DAL — 67.9% Completion Rate
• Kirk Cousins, ATL — 67.9% Completion Rate
• Geno Smith, LV — 67.8% Completion Rate
• Kyler Murray, ARI — 67.7% Completion Rate
• Brock Purdy, SF — 67.6% Completion Rate
• Patrick Mahomes, KC — 67.3% Completion Rate

Only Eight QBs Achieved A +100.0 Passer Rating    

• Lamar Jackson, BAL — 111.3 Passer Rating
• Jared Goff, DET — 104.4 Passer Rating
• Brock Purdy, SF — 104.4 Passer Rating
• Joe Burrow, CIN — 102.2 Passer Rating
• Tua Tagovailoa, MIA — 101.2 Passer Rating
• Sam Darnold, SEA — 101.2 Passer Rating
• Baker Mayfield, TB — 100.7 Passer Rating
• Jayden Daniels, WAS — 100.1 Passer Rating

Only Seven QBs Attempted +46% Of Passes Beyond The Sticks 

• Anthony Richardson Sr., IND — 53.4% To The Sticks
• C.J. Stroud, HOU — 48.8% To The Sticks
• Sam Darnold, SEA — 48.4% To The Sticks
• Jameis Winston, NYG — 48.1% To The Sticks
• Brock Purdy, SF — 46.5% To The Sticks
• Bryce Young, CAR — 46.4% To The Sticks
• Trevor Lawrence, JAX — 46.1% To The Sticks

Only Four QBs Posted An EPA/Attempt Over +0.25

• Brock Purdy SF — 0.32 EPA/Attempt
• Lamar Jackson BAL — 0.30 EPA/Attempt
• Jared Goff DET — 0.29 EPA/Attempt
• Tua Tagovailoa MIA — 0.27 EPA/Attempt

Only Three QBs Accomplished +8.0 Yards Per Attempt

• Brock Purdy, SF — 9.1 Yards Per Attempt
• Lamar Jackson, BAL — 8.4 Yards Per Attempt
• Jared Goff, DET — 8.0 Yards Per Attempt

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Quarterbacks: Rushing Ability

The disproportionate manner in which running gets scored for fantasy football QBs borders on unfair, but like they say — if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. While there aren't enough elite quarterbacks for everyone, prioritizing rushing will help build natural floors into your projections and close that weekly gap.

It's no surprise that all the top scorers at the position can post fantasy-viable outputs on the ground. However, the thing often forgotten in the fray is the floor I mentioned briefly above. A quarterback doesn't have to run for +900 yards like Jackson to leave a lasting impact. For reference, Young added a whopping 4.35 fantasy points per game to his 2024 total with a (38-249-6) line.

Only 15 QBs Scrambled For +460 Yards

• Lamar Jackson, BAL — 1,736 Rushing Yards
• Jalen Hurts, PHI — 1,235 Rushing Yards
• Josh Allen, BUF — 1,055 Rushing Yards
• Justin Fields, NYJ — 946 Rushing Yards
• Jayden Daniels, WAS — 891 Rushing Yards
• Kyler Murray, ARI — 816 Rushing Yards
• Patrick Mahomes, KC — 696 Rushing Yards
• Anthony Richardson Sr., IND — 635 Rushing Yards
• Baker Mayfield, TB — 541 Rushing Yards
• Justin Herbert, LAC — 534 Rushing Yards
• Bryce Young, CAR — 502 Rushing Yards
• Russell Wilson, NYG — 496 Rushing Yards
• Caleb Williams, CHI — 489 Rushing Yards
• Daniel Jones, IND — 471 Rushing Yards
• Brock Purdy, SF — 467 Rushing Yards

Only Nine QBs Rushed For +7 Touchdowns

• Jalen Hurts, PHI — 29 Rushing TDs
• Josh Allen, BUF — 27 Rushing TDs
• Anthony Richardson Sr., IND — 10 Rushing TDs
• Lamar Jackson, BAL — nine Rushing TDs
• Justin Fields, NYJ — nine Rushing TDs
• Kyler Murray, ARI — eight Rushing TDs
• Joshua Dobbs, NE — eight Rushing TDs
• Brock Purdy, SF — seven Rushing TDs
• Trevor Lawrence, JAX — seven Rushing TDs

Only Eight QBs Ran For +45 First Downs

• Jalen Hurts, PHI — 130 First Downs
• Josh Allen, BUF — 108 First Downs
• Lamar Jackson, BAL — 95 First Downs
• Justin Fields, NYJ — 62 First Downs
• Jayden Daniels, WAS — 55 First Downs
• Russell Wilson, NYG — 54 First Downs
• Patrick Mahomes, KC — 49 First Downs
• Brock Purdy, SF — 48 First Downs

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Quarterbacks: Conclusion

After spending a productive afternoon in the Build-A-Breakout Workshop dissecting my QB spreadsheet into ribbons, just one player finds himself on ALL 12 of our lists. Yes, Purdy is the cheese that stands alone — and on some sites, he's being taken as the QB14 outside of the top 100 picks by ADP! Can you say massive draft day value?

Purdy is being vastly undersold as a potential fantasy breakout, with the most tantalizing part of the proposition overlooked. In 2024, Purdy stepped up his willingness to take off, more than doubling both his scramble rate (8.3%) and rush yards per game (21.5). Bake that developing aspect into his fantasy game going forward, and suddenly Purdy should be going several rounds earlier than his current ADP.

How can you pass on a real chance to finish in the top-6 at his position outside the elite options?

The answer is that you can't, especially considering we're entering home-league season. Once a QB's rank falls outside the top 12, most fantasy gamers ignore the position outright in favor of high-upside handcuffs — which makes sense! The thing is, Purdy's current ~111 ADP comes from a large sample and is not specifically fine-tuned for your particular league.

I've had experiences where all eleven other GMs already rostered QBs, with the six to my right electing for top options. In other words, a +100 ADP at a onesie position can easily drop past pick 130 under the right circumstances.

System QB Brock Purdypic.twitter.com/odNWNxMZHN

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 21, 2025

So head on a swivel, and draft Purdy this fantasy season!

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