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Hello everyone! I am so excited to be back here cooking up some hot football analysis with the freshest ingredients in the NFL. That’s right, we’re talking rookies just in time for your rookie drafts.
Today, we have a 10-team half-PPR Superflex mock draft. I have assigned pick ranges to these players as I understand team need is always a factor. These ranges will demonstrate the earliest I would take a player if I am desperate at the position and where I can’t see him dropping any farther. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is my sixth year writing NFL content with RotoBaller. I also contribute to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings and create fantasy content on TikTok (@firesidefantasy_ffl).
Most of my dynasty fantasy football experience is in a 10-team, half-PPR, Superflex league. Although I have participated in others, this is my home league, and I have been very invested in their evaluations of players. As a result, I am approaching these evaluations with a personal lens as well as predicting how my league mates may draft. With that said, let’s start drafting!
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1.01 - Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)
Range: 1.01
Everyone is probably tired of hearing Williams’ name at the top of rookie lists. However, if that’s the case, I encourage you to watch his highlights. This guy is electric. His ability to create plays and manipulate defenses makes him one of the best QB prospects in recent memory. Now, he goes to a team that has done everything right to create a supporting cast where he will flourish. Don’t overthink this one; even if you are set at QB, you can’t pass up on a player like this.
Chicago Bears 2024 NFL Draft Picks Highlights #NFLDraft #DaBears
1 Overall Pick: USC QB Caleb Williams
9 Overall Pick: Washington WR Rome Odunze
75 Overall Pick: Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie
122 Overall Pick: Iowa P Tory Taylor
144 Overall Pick: Kansas DL Austin Booker pic.twitter.com/GwxVzUlRr9
— Tyree Holland (@TyreeLHolland) April 27, 2024
1.02 - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI)
Range: 1.02-1.03
I know there are a lot of great QBs in this draft; however, even in a Superflex league, MHJ is that dude. Kind of like Williams, MHJ goes to the perfect landing spot. Immediately, he is catching passes from a top-15 QB with limited outside options. We have seen Kyler Murray hyper-target his top options and support WR1 performances from DeAndre Hopkins and, at times, Marquise Brown. There are never “can’t-miss prospects”; however, Williams and Harrison Jr. are about as close as it gets.
1.03 - Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS)
Range: 1.02-1.03
To start the next tier, we have another QB that is primed for a massive fantasy impact. Daniels is often hyped due to his rushing ability. Although he is a great rusher, it’s his pocket passing that I believe is the best part of his game. His rushing ability often overshadows his passing ability in fantasy leagues, but this guy can huck. He is now passing to Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, who create a formative duo. Plus, Kliff Kingsbury, a known passing enthusiast, is their offensive coordinator.
Daniels is primed to make an immediate fantasy impact. The only concern is if he can stay healthy, but it’s never fun predicting injuries. He’s a slam dunk at 1.03 or 1.02 if you are a QB-needy team.
1.04 - Malik Nabers (WR, NYG)
Range: 1.04-1.06
Nabers is electric. The only issue is he is linked to a shaky Giants team and Daniel Jones for at least one year. If you can overlook that or somewhat believe Jones is a decent QB (I’m guilty of that), Nabers is a smash pick. His ability to make defenders miss and find separation on all of his routes is elite.
This team has a weird amount of slot WRs and limited competition on the outside. I expect Nabers will be moved all over the formation and is by far the top target all season long. Even if you don’t believe in the team, this is the perfect talent > situation pick.
1.05 - J.J. McCarthy (QB, MIN)
Range: 1.04-1.06
McCarthy may not have the fantasy ceiling as Drake Maye, but his production will be immediate. McCarthy is in a perfect spot, with the talent surrounding him and a skill set that perfectly fits Kevin O’Connell’s scheme.
Over Kirk Cousins' last three seasons on the Vikings, he averaged over 18 fantasy points per game. For perspective, that’s the same as C.J. Stroud last year. McCarthy won’t be as prolific as Cousins, at least in his rookie season, but the path is there to have a fringe top-10 QB for years to come.
1.06 - Drake Maye (QB, NE)
Range 1.05-1.06
Do I think Maye is the better prospect than McCarthy? Yes. Usually, I don’t like factoring in situations over talent; however, when the situation seems like a perfect fit, it’s hard to have McCarthy below Maye.
Maye has all the attributes to be an above-average NFL QB for years to come. Although the Patriots are not the best landing spot, I think it’s important to note that for the first time in two decades, we have a different regime. As a result, what we think we know about the Patriots may have nothing to do with who they are this season. QBs are gold, and Maye could be a great value due to the Patriots carrying the Mac Jones baggage.
1.07 - Xavier Worthy (WR, KC)
Range: 1.07-1.08
My first surprise of this draft is Worthy. I love Worthy as a player. Yes, he has NFL-breaking speed, but he is also a better WR than people think. If you forget his record 40-yard time and watch his highlights, you’ll be impressed with his fluid route running and ability to create separation. If you don't believe me, check out the highlights I've linked below.
He now steps into a role with the best QB in the NFL throwing him the ball. Plus, the pass-catching situation is very ambiguous around him. It was reported that the Chiefs expect Rashee Rice to miss a significant portion of the season, which lines up with their trade-up to draft Worthy. Additionally, Travis Kelce’s new deal is more of a one-year deal with the option for a second season, and Marquise Brown is only on a one-year deal.
Not only do I believe Worthy has a massive opportunity to produce immediately, but he also has a clear path for increased involvement as soon as next season. I’m telling you, he is more of a complete WR than people think, and he is in the perfect situation to produce for fantasy.
Xavier Worthy was a GREAT add for the Kansas City Chiefs 🔥
You remember how well Mahomes got the ball to SPEEDY TYREEK?
🔹 Xavier Worthy ran the fastest 40 time in NFL combine history, clocking in a 4.21 🐆
At Texas Worthy:
▪️scored 26 career touchdown receptions, third… pic.twitter.com/iYz4vHZSHs— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) May 4, 2024
1.08 - Rome Odunze (WR, CHI)
Range: 1.07-1.08
Odunze is a really interesting prospect. Not only is he an athletic monster, but he also is one of the only players to participate in all of the Combine drills. I believe as a top prospect in this class, that says a lot about who he is as a person. He also landed in a very intriguing situation with Caleb Williams, and the team is loaded with offensive talent.
Unfortunately, that’s where my dynasty philosophy drops him a little in my rankings. I try to view dynasty in a 2-3 year window. I find projecting the past as unreliable as the NFL is constantly changing.
Even though I love Odunze as a prospect, he is behind two star NFL WRs in Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore, as well as a solid receiving TE in Cole Kmet. Allen is on a one-year deal, which opens the door for Odunze to become the team’s second option. Although possible, it’s a big ask to think he will overtake Moore as the top option. Plus, we are banking on Williams to support two top fantasy WRs. Once again, this is all possible, but for me, I like the mix of talent and opportunity of Worthy over Odunze.
1.09 - Brock Bowers (TE, LV)
Range: 1.09-2.01
This is as low as I can place a talent like Bowers. However, if the contending teams are holding these late first-round picks, I can easily see him sliding and becoming the perfect pick for a rebuilding team at the 2.01.
I’m projecting a similar start to Bowers' career as Kyle Pitts. Although that may deter many fantasy managers, he is an outstanding prospect in a situation that is ready to start building around him. We only have one or two more years of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, which opens the door for Bowers to be the top option in a few years.
This team will also try and find its franchise QB over that stretch, ideally allowing Bowers to start being a consistent fantasy producer in a year or two. Having said that, he’ll still flash and could become a top-12 option as a rookie, but his true potential upside will likely be hidden for his first few years.
1.10 - Jonathon Brooks (RB, CAR)
Range: 1.09-2.02
I think Brooks is a very safe rookie draft pick. If you are picking this low, you likely have a championship-worthy team, which makes Brooks even more valuable. The first question is if you believe in the new Panthers this season. After addressing their offensive line and adding a lot of offensive talent, it’s enticing to “buy low” into this offense.
Brooks was my favorite back in this class and immediately stepped into a potential workhorse role. With Sherwood Park native Chuba Hubbard in a contract year and this team having buyer’s remorse over Miles Sanders, this backfield is primed for the taking. Plus, Brooks’ pass-catching prowess fits Bryce Young’s dynamic perfectly. I think Brooks is a lot like Najee Harris and could be the perfect steady piece for a contending team.
Don’t worry, I didn’t forget that he tore his ACL. However, I wanted to leave that to the end because I don’t think it impacts his long-term outlook. Maybe he starts the year slower than he should, but by Week 3, he should be just fine.
Thank you for checking out the first round of my rookie mock draft! I'll have two more articles predicting the second and third rounds, so stay tuned!
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