2021-2022 Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Guards

October 4, 2021

Alex Burns' 2021-2022 fantasy basketball draft rankings for guards. He analyzes them for potential sleepers and value picks, as well as overhyped players.

Boom! Just like that, we are only three weeks away from the NBA regular season. That can only mean one thing: Fantasy Hoops are back! With tip-off fast approaching, you will need to begin preparing for your fantasy basketball drafts, and what better way to do that than with our draft rankings!

In case you missed it, the NBA Team here at RotoBaller released our 21-22 Rankings last week and while it's mostly what you'd expect, there are a few surprises that stuck out. Rather than simply posting a list of rankings without context, I'll be doing a three-part series to provide some extra insight and analysis to our consensus rankings.

To kick things off, let's take a closer look at the guard position.

Fantasy Basketball Guard Rankings

Note: These rankings are based on our staff's H2H 9-cat rankings.

The Paul George Resurgence

Yes, I'm talking about Pandemic P. The man who NBA Twitter so viciously clowned over the last two seasons is ranked as a top-10 asset according to the consensus. That doesn't sound too crazy when you remember he posted nearly 27.0 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists during the 2020-21 postseason. But can he pick up where he left off?

Kawhi Leonard is still recovering from a torn ACL and will be out of the lineup for most, if not all of the upcoming season. This should give George a clear path to top-10 production, as he saw a staggering 37.6 percent usage rating in the 11 regular-season games played without Kawhi last season. For reference, Stephen Curry finished the season with a 37.9 percent usage rate.

According to BasketballMonster.com, he finished as the 24th-best per-game value in 9-Cat Head-to-Head leagues last season, despite Leonard playing in 52 games. Now with Reggie Jackson, Eric Bledsoe, and Marcus Morris Sr. serving as the only ones standing in his way for production, George could explode.

I know it's 'trendy' to make fun of George on social media to look cool in front of your friends, but don't forget that he is only three seasons removed from finishing third in MVP voting on the backs of 28.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.2 steals in 36.9 minutes per game in 2018-19. Oddly similar to his production in last year's postseason huh? He did all of that three seasons ago with a sub-30 percent usage rating and managed to finish as a top-3 value in 9-Cat formats.

For all that is good and holy, do not be afraid to look PG13's way towards the end of the first round.

The Top Point Guards

Point guards make up more than 50 percent of the top-seven players in our ranks between Stephen Curry, James Harden, Luka Doncic, and Damian Lillard. While each of them isn't too far apart in value, there were some interesting findings in our consensus rankings. One of our four rankers had Harden as low as number nine and another had Luka outside of the first round at number 13! All four rankers had Curry and Lillard within two spots of each other's ranks.

To me, that's significant. It shows us that the consensus views Curry and Lillard as the safer options while Harden and Doncic present a bit more risk. Despite this, it's clear that Curry and Harden are the favorites out of the bunch with Lillard and Doncic not far behind.

With Curry, you know what you are going to get. He finished as the second-best per game value in 9-Cat last season after posting a career-high 32.0 points to go along with 5.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 5.3 three's a game. He finished top-10 in usage rating and finished with 48/42/91 shooting splits. The only area of concern was turnovers (3.4), but that's a by-product of the high usage and fantasy managers will gladly look the other way. Curry should be a no-brainer top-three selection in 9-Cat leagues this season.

Despite the drama-riddled season, Harden shouldn't be too far behind Curry in the ranks. Many thought his fantasy value would greatly diminish in Brooklyn but that was hardly the case. While his scoring dropped nearly 10 PPG from the 2019-2020 season, he provided elite value in assists and rebounding. Harden also managed to shoot 47 percent from the field in his 36 games with the Nets, which was good enough for the second-highest field goal percentage of his career. Those facts alone make him an obvious first-round selection, but the drama surrounding Kyrie Irving and his vaccination status have propped Harden up a bit higher. If Irving is indeed forced to miss all of the Nets' home games this season, The Beard would give Curry a run for his money as the best overall guard on draft day.

Lillard is similar to Curry in safety. He's locked in as the top playmaker for the Trail Blazers and we should expect similar production from his 28.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 7.5 assists on a 45/39/92 shooting split. The importance of health and availability cannot be overstated when drafting in the first round and Lillard has been the poster child. Over his nine-year career, he's played in 682 of a possible 720 (94%) regular-season games. He's a fine selection in the mid-late first round.

The most polarizing of the bunch is Doncic, who fell to number seven in our ranks. The fascinating discrepancy in all of this is that he's consistently being selected as a top-three pick in ESPN, CBS, and Yahoo! leagues. While he is more valuable in points leagues and does have the upside to be the number one player overall, he finished last season as the 37th-best per-game value in 9-Cat according to BasketballMonster.com. He saw the highest usage rate in the league (43.4%) but shot 73 percent from the line and committed 4.3 turnovers per game. Doncic should absolutely be selected in the first round, but his value is a bit lower than the three aforementioned guards.

Who Am I Lower On?

Which guys am I lower than the consensus on?

Bojan Bogdanovic - Utah Jazz
RB Ranking: 113, Alex Ranking: 141

Bogdanovic isn't a bad player by any stretch of the imagination. He was a huge part of the Utah Jazz' 52-20 season after putting up averages of 17.0 points on 39 percent from deep. Unfortunately, that's about all you'll get from him. Throughout his entire eight-year career, he's averaged a mere 0.7 combined blocks and steals per game to go along with 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Again, he's a fantastic real-life player, but he finished at 155 in 9-Cat value last season. I will happily let someone else take him inside the top-120 this season.

Anthony Edwards - Minnesota Timberwolves
RB Ranking: 61, Alex Ranking: 72

This is a tough one because I do believe Edwards will be a fantastic player in this league for many years. With that in mind, let's not forget that he shot 41 percent from the field, 32 percent from three, and 77 percent from the line as a rookie last year. Not to mention he committed 2.2 turnovers in his 32.1 minutes per game. With D'Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Malik Beasley all fully healthy to begin the season, Edwards may have a tough time getting to the 16.8 field goal attempts he saw as a rookie. Even with all the volume and various missing pieces last season, he finished at 119 in per game 9-Cat value. A far cry away from his consensus ranking of 61. He's easily a top-75 asset this year, but his playstyle is better suited for points leagues at the moment.

Marcus Smart - Boston Celtics
RB Ranking: 71, Alex Ranking 82

Smart has been a tough glue guy and one of the better on-ball defenders in the league for the past seven seasons. Unfortunately, his efficiency as a shooter has yet to improve, as he's shot just 37 percent from the field, 32 percent from three, and 77 percent from the line for his career. He should still see upwards of 30 minutes per game but the additions of Dennis Schroder and Josh Richardson in the Celtics' backcourt may limit some of his production. His assist numbers and shot attempts should go down this season and he doesn't post elite numbers in any other category to make up the difference. Smart should claw his way to a top-100 finish but drafting him inside the top-75 is far too early for me.

Who Am I Higher On?

Who are some guys ranked outside of the top-115 who could break into the top-100?

Isaac Okoro - Cleveland Cavaliers
RB Ranking: 166, Alex Ranking: 135

Did you know that Isaac Okoro led all rookies in minutes per game last season? He started slow but ended the season on a tear, putting up 15.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists over the final 13 games. His play was so impressive that Cleveland parted ways with both Larry Nance Jr. and Taurean Prince in the offseason, setting Okoro up for a hefty workload in year two. The only downside was his poor three-point shooting, as he shot only 29 percent from behind the line. Any improvement in that area and Okoro can easily smash his consensus ranking of 166. While I wouldn't recommend taking him in the first 10 rounds (partly because you don't have to), he's a fine selection with one of your last picks.

Killian Hayes - Detroit Pistons
RB Ranking: 136, Alex Ranking: 114

It was a rough rookie season for Hayes, though he showed a few flashes of excellence along the way. He averaged 5.3 assists and played 25.8 minutes per game when healthy, which should only improve in year two. The addition of Cade Cunningham will take away some of his playmaking duties but Hayes' should be the starting point guard and see a ton of playing time. His 6'8" wingspan also makes him a valuable defender, as he has a tendency to get his hands in the passing lane and come up with deflections and steals. Hayes is beaming with upside and if he's able to stay healthy, don't be surprised to see him flirt with top-100 numbers at the season's end.

Dennis Schroder - Boston Celtics
RB Ranking: 119, Alex Ranking: 88

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After turning down $85 million from the Lakers, Schroder completely flamed out and was forced to settle for a one-year, $5.8 million deal with the Celtics. While he did, 'fumble the bag', as the kids are calling it these days, let's not forget we are only two years removed from Schroder putting up 18.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.0 assists for the Thunder in 19-20. Simply put: he's a baller. He should immediately handle starting point guard duties and provide offense behind Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Remember, Kemba Walker was able to average just under 20 points over his two seasons as the Celtics point guard, so there is certainly enough room for a motivated Schroder to produce top-100 numbers in Boston.

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