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Ben Rolfe analyzes optimal DFS cash game value plays for Week 5 of the NFL season. These players are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports cash games.
Week 5 brings a fresh new look to the NFL as the games head to London for the first time. The good news is that the game remains in the 1 pm window and therefore ensures we have a nice juicy 12-game slate for our perusal. However, with the Lions on the bye this week we lose some interesting names, and with the Dolphins also getting a week off we also lose a great option to pick against.
This week is another fasciating week total wise. We do not have a single game projected to be in the 50s, but we have six games over the 45-point mark. However, we also have a couple of games projected to be low scoring, including the Titans and Bills, which has a projected line of just 38. You will not be finding many picks from that game in this article!
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, usually when you look at value plays for GPP you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets or carries. Let's take a look at the cash value plays for Week 5 of the 2019 NFL season.
Week 5 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays
Andy Dalton, CIN vs. ARI | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,500
Never has a game between two 0-4 teams had the potential to be such a much watch game of football. Both the Bengals and Cardinals have issues defensively, and that could lead to a lot of points, and a lot of back-and-forths. The Cardinals Defense is allowing over 25 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and Dalton could be in a position to take advantage in this one. Usually, we are looking for volume here, but this time I can see Dalton having success even if he only throws the ball 25 times. The Cardinals defensive backs are a complete mess, with ther original top-two cornerbacks currently suspended and injured respectively.
Teddy Bridgewater, NO vs. TB | DK: $5,200, FD: $7,200
Ok, so Bridgewater has not been very good this season since taking over from Drew Brees, but you could argue the Saints have not really needed to force him to make plays. The Seahawks game was a situation where the Sants got up big, and the Cowboys game they really controlled the script and never needed to open up the offense. The Buccaneers are likely to pose a VERY different challenge. This Buccaneers team is fresh off hanging 55 points on the defending champion LA Rams, and their offense is not going to sit back. That is going to force the Saints and Bridgewater to let off the shackles and open up the passing game a little more. This could be a bargain price for a QB with the potential to be involved in a shootout facing a defense which has allowed close to 20 fantasy points a game to opposing QBs, while limiting the threat from some very good opposing running games. Brdgewater is going to need to be good to win this game, and he could be throwing 40 or perhaps even 50 times this season.
Week 5 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays
Devonta Freeman, ATL @ HOU | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,200
This game has desperation written all over it for the Falcons, and it those situation teams tend to ride their trusted options. Freeman is exactly that, despite his struggles this season. The Texans have struggled against opposing number one backs, allowing over 20 points per game on average. Freeman demonstrated with his 88 yards against Indianapolis that given the right situation he can make an impact. Look for Freeman to be a big part of the game plan for the desperate Falcons this week, and perhaps he can even find the end zone for the first time.
David Montgomery, CHI @ OAK (London) | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,700
This game has the makings of a wet low-scoring game of football in London, and that is the perfect situation to fire up Montgomery. Since the diabolical first game of the season, Montgomery has seen double-digit carries in each of his last three starts. Additionally, he is also averaging 3.66 targets per game over the last three games, so he should be in line for 15-20 touches. London games have had a trend of being grind-it-out type affairs and with the weather set to be rainy this weekend, this could be a game where the Bears look to control it on the ground. In that type of game Montgomery can even have value if he is not hugely efficient with his touches.
Ronald Jones II, TB @ NO | DK: $4,600 FD: $5,900
Yes, the Saints shut down Ezekiel Elliott last week. Yes, Eliott is a better running back than Jones. However, the difference here is that with the superb receiving weapons the Buccaneers have, the Saints will not be able to key on the run as much, and this should open up some holes for Jones. Jones has seen double-digit touches in three of the four games this season and should be in line for that again. Last week he sprung a handful of big plays which were called back for penalties but demonstrated just how effective he can be with the ball in his hands.
Week 5 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @ CIN | DK: $6,000, FD: $5,800
Ok, so maybe this is a little more expensive than you might want for a value play, but make no mistake Fitzgerald is absolutely a value play. Fitzgerald has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of the four games this season, found the end zone twice, and averages an impressive nine targets per game on the season. This game has the potential to be a shootout and the Bengals are allowing 13.3 points per game to WR1's and 14.5 FPPG to receivers out of the slot.
Curtis Samuel, CAR vs. JAX | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,500
Samuel is coming off a down game in Houston but has rea bounce back potential in this one. Samuel has averaged nine targets per game over his last three starts, which means he will always have the chance to put up numbers. The Jaguars have bee susceptible to number one receivers at times this season, allowing 22.6 FPPG to them. You could argue that Samuel is not the number one, but he certainly sees enough targets to be considered the number one, and at this price that safety in the target numbers is worth the gamble.
Auden Tate, CIN vs. ARI | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,300
Tate has seen 16 targets in the last two weeks, and with John Ross on the injured reserve that could increase this week. I spoke about how I think this game could be a shootout with both Dalton and Fitzgerald, and Tate has the potential to be a massive value, especially if the Cardinals try to double-team Tyler Boyd out of the game.
Week 5 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays
Jared Cook, NO vs. TB | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,300
There have been some promising signs that Cook is becoming a bigger part of this offense, having seen seven targets in Week 2 and another six in Week 4. The Buccaneers have given up 18.8 FPPG against opposing tight ends this season and let Gerald Everett have a solid week for the Rams last week. This game could be a shootout and Cook has a great chance to see 6-to-10 targets, as well as potential to find the end zone.
Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. ARI | DK: $3,300, FD: $4,600
It has not been a great start to the season for Eifert this year, but that could all change this week. Every single week this season we have seen a tight end have a big week against the Cardinals. Number one tight ends have averaged over 25 FPPG against this Cardinals defense, and this price for Eifert is far too good to pass up.
