RADIO
Matt Terelle offers up optimal high, mid, and low-priced DFS stacks for Week 12 of the NFL season. These GPP tournament stacks are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports games.
Happy Thanksgiving RotoBallers! I don't know about you but my head is still spinning after that epic Chiefs-Rams shootout on Monday night. Hopefully, you selected the right combination of players for the single-game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. This week's main slate is on the lighter side with two teams on bye and six teams playing on Thanksgiving day. That will limit the main slate to 10 games. The main slate also only boasts only two games with over/unders of 50 points or more. That would include the 49ers-Buccaneers game (54 points) and Dolphins-Colts (51). Unfortunately, most of the high-scoring teams are either on bye (Chiefs and Rams) or playing on Thanksgiving (Saints and Falcons).
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize point scoring. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 12 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by salary. The focus will be on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM EST Sunday) games across both sites. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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High-Priced Week 12 DFS Stacks
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown @ Denver
With most of the explosive offenses not on the main slate, it isn't necessary to pay up for an expensive stack. If you do, Pittsburgh is the way to go. The Steelers got off to a painfully slow start against the Jaguars last week, passing for just 53 yards in the first half. After halftime, however, Ben Roethlisberger got it going and wound up finishing as a QB1, partially thanks to his game-winning rushing touchdown at the end of the fourth quarter. Those daily gamers who placed their trust in a Steelers stack probably wound up winning some money in Week 11, even though it wasn't a safe play. Pittsburgh travels to Denver in Week 12 to take on a Broncos defense that has been solid against opposing pass offenses. That being said, Roethlisberger has been mostly matchup-proof this season, as evidenced by his three-score outing against Jacksonville last week. He's also been much better on the road than in past seasons, so take advantage of that false narrative while you can.
As usual, Antonio Brown remains a weekly WR1 and is always worth considering in DFS tournaments. While there has been merit to pivoting to JuJu Smith-Schuster in some weeks, JuJu draws the toughest individual matchup on Sunday as he will run most of his routes against shutdown slot corner Chris Harris, Jr. Brown, on the other hand, has scored 11 touchdowns in 10 games and will run most of his routes against Tramaine Brock or Bradley Roby. Neither has performed well this season, with PFF grades of 67.9 and 59.3, respectively.
New York QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham Jr. @ Philadelphia
Manning has struggled for much of the season but is coming off one of his better performances, which saw him complete 17 of his 18 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers. The Eagles, much like Tampa Bay, have struggled in pass coverage this season. Philadelphia's pass defense ranks 19th in DVOA and is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
The Eagles are also quite banged up at the cornerback position, having lost top cover man Ronald Darby to an ACL tear two weeks ago. Four other cornerbacks were listed on Wednesday's injury report, including Jalen Mills, Sidney Jones, Rasul Douglas, and Avonte Maddux. This all bodes well for Beckham, who has risen above his quarterback's poor play this season. While the Eagles struggled on offense in Week 11, expect them to return to their high-scoring ways against the Giants, setting up a pass-heavy game script which will benefit Odell.
Moderately-Priced Week 12 DFS Stacks
Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans vs. San Francisco
In this week's installment of quarterback carousel, Jameis Winston has regained his starting job for the second separate time this season. This comes on the heels of Ryan Fitzpatrick's three-interception implosion against the Giants last week. While Winston has been quite turnover-prone himself, he returns to the starting role just in time for a tasty matchup against a burnable San Francisco secondary. The 49ers rank 21st in the league in pass defense DVOA and are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Furthermore, Tampa Bay's poor defense almost assures that every game they participate in will develop into a shootout.
Mike Evans bounced back from a two-week lull to hang 120 yards and a score on the Giants secondary in Week 11. While Evans will run some routes at Richard Sherman, the 49ers don't move Sherman around, meaning Evans will also get some shots against Ahkello Witherspoon, who grades out at just a 44.4 over at PFF. A three-man stack including Winston, Evans, and Chris Godwin is also in play as Godwin should see coverage from Witherspoon when Evans doesn't.
San Francisco QB Nick Mullens and TE George Kittle @ Tampa Bay
Mullens has been a feel-good story since taking over for an injured C.J. Beathard ahead of Week 9. The rookie signal-caller is averaging 256 passing yards and has four touchdowns and two interceptions in his two games played. While it is hard to see him keeping this up for the rest of the season, Mullens draws a fantastic matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that has been extremely generous to fantasy offenses this season. The Buccaneers rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Mullens is still cheap across the board and won't see a better matchup for the rest of the season.
George Kittle has been breaking out all over the place no matter who has been his quarterback, ranking fourth in tight end fantasy points per game. The second-year tight end has emerged as the No. 1 option in the San Francisco passing game this year, partially due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness in the wide receiving corps. Tampa Bay's pass defense ranks 30th in the league in DVOA against the tight end position while allowing the second-most points per game to the position. Kittle is in a fantastic spot this weekend and should be a top tight end consideration regardless of whether you want to slot Mullens in as your quarterback in lineups.
Bargain-Priced Week 12 DFS Stacks
Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield and WR Jarvis Landry @ Cincinnati
Let's hope Mayfield wakes up feeling dangerous again on Sunday morning. The rookie signal caller draws his third-straight plus matchup as his team travels to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals for the first time this season. Mayfield has played better since Freddie Kitchens took over as offensive coordinator two games ago and he shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball against a leaky Bengals defense. On the season, Cincinnati's pass defense ranks 18th in DVOA and is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
Jarvis Landry will run most of his routes against the weak link in Cincinnati's secondary, slot corner Darius Phillips. Phillips grades out at 59 at PFF and has allowed big games to Adam Humphries and Tre'Quan Smith in recent weeks. Landry's production has been all over the place this season, with a few big games mixed in with some clunkers. That being said, Landry's target volume is not going away, meaning another explosion could take place at any point.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson and WR Doug Baldwin @ Carolina
After getting off to a slow start this season, as has been typical for Seattle, Wilson has rounded into form over the past few weeks. The Seahawks quarterback has thrown for at least two touchdowns in all but one of his 10 games played this season. While he wasn't rushing much in the early stages of the year, Wilson has picked it up in that department, as he's averaging just over five rushes per game since the Week 7 bye. Carolina's defense has been generous to opposing quarterbacks while Cam Newton's offense is explosive enough to keep the pressure on Seattle to keep passing throughout.
Baldwin admitted that he's feeling the best he has all season after a preseason knee injury and an in-season injury to the other knee slowed him over the first part of the season. Carolina's pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA this season while their No. 12 ranked run defense could slow a Seattle run game that has cut into the team's pass attempts. While Baldwin is the preferred play based on higher expected volume, a three-man stack including Tyler Lockett is also in play. The Seattle passing game stack is shockingly cheap this weekend, opening up plenty of cap space to pay up for studs at other positions.
"YOLO" Contrarian Stack
Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz and WR Alshon Jeffery vs. New York Giants
While it's not all that contrarian to play Wentz and the Philadelphia passing game in DFS, many owners may choose to shy away after they completely choked against the Saints in a fantastic matchup in Week 11. Recency bias will likely play a role here as many daily gamers were burned by Wentz's 156-yard, three interception dud against a weak New Orleans secondary. This is a chance to get a piece of what can be an explosive offense at lower than usual ownership.
Jeffery has cooled off considerably since Week 7 as he hasn't topped four catches or 48 yards in three straight games. That being said, Alshon tore up these same Giants when these two teams met in Week 6, popping off for eight catches, 74 yards, and two scores. Embarrassed last week, expect the Eagles to come out hot against their division rivals this weekend.
