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Way Too Early Dynasty Mock Draft Analysis - Rounds 16-20

In this space, we will close out our ongoing analysis of RotoBaller's Way Too Early Dynasty Mock Draft by recapping the final rounds, 16-20.

We recently gathered 12 dynasty league experts and RotoBaller writers to conduct a week-long email draft in order to evaluate early ADP values and give readers a sense of what to expect this fall.

If you haven't done so yet, start with our analysis of the first round here. We're reviewing each round in order to give you the best advice on how to approach your early drafts and determine when to target players.

Editor's Note: The FFPC Playoff Challenge is back with a massive $500,000 grand prize and $1.35 million total prize pool, paying down to 800th place. Here's the deal: no salary cap, no draft, no pickups, no subs. Choose 10 players, and as NFL teams get knocked out so will your players, so choose your team wisely. The 7,250 entries will sell out quickly, and registrations will close on Saturday January 10th at 4:30 pm ET . Don't wait - get your team now and end your fantasy football season with a shot at $500,000! Sign Up Now!

 

Way Too Early Mock Dynasty Draft Analysis

Note: this mock draft was completed on March 11 via MFL10's email draft system.

Round 16

The 16th round presented an interesting mix of veteran and rookie running backs, with Hood and McNichols going ahead of established backs like Stewart and Gore. The best value of them all may turn out to be Rex Burkhead, who looks to claim LeGarrette Blount's role as goal-line back in New England. Torrey Smith and Cordarrelle Patterson had terrible production in 2016, but a change of scenery make both tremendous sleeper candidates.

 

Round 17

The first pick of round 17, Mitch Trubisky, could turn out to be one of the top picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. One would guess that his fantasy stock will rise once he has a team to call home, especially if there is a clear path to early playing time. A pair of Clemson Tigers, including Heisman winner Deshaun Watson, are finally taken late in the round. There is serious bounce back potential with current Jaguar, Blake Bortles, and former Jag, Julius Thomas. Pierre Garcon stands out as one of the best picks in this section of the draft, despite what would appear to be a serious downgrade in team situation.

 

Round 18

Let the tight end run commence! Rookies Hodges and Butt were followed by another popular sleeper, Jack Doyle, and later Vance McDonald. I have totally opposing opinions on the quarterbacks selected in this round. Garoppolo is a smart choice as a breakout candidate, while A.J. McCarron figures to have limited upside, even if he somehow manages to find a starting job.

 

Round 19

A couple of reclamation projects at receiver, Michael Floyd and Dorial Green-Beckham, are lottery tickets in the second-to-last round of this draft. DeShone Kizer was once considered a possible first-round prospect, but a poor combine showing has made him less appealing and available at the tail end of fantasy drafts. The order kickers are drafted is usually meaningless, but it was interesting to see Roberto Aguayo taken ahead of Mr. Reliable, Stephen Gostkowski.

 

Round 20

It's hard to imagine a Manning being labeled Mr. Irrelevant, but that's how this draft played out with Eli as the 240th overall pick. Chris Ivory and Chris Thompson look to be throwaway picks in the final round, as both are likely to be replaced in their respective offenses next season. Pat Mahomes is the last rookie selected at #230 overall - a move that could be valuable depending on his landing spot.

 

Best Picks

Frank Gore (RB, IND) 16.10, 190 overall

33 year-old running backs aren't a hot commodity in any fantasy draft, but this is an exception. Even taking into account the dynasty format, the 16th round is pretty late for Frank Gore after he ran for 1,025 yards and scored eight total touchdowns last season. There is still no threat to his starting job, so he could easily be a low-end RB2 once again. If the Colts finally draft a replacement, Gore still makes for an adequate fantasy backup at this point in the draft.

Pierre Garcon (WR, SF) 17.07, 199 overall

On the surface, moving to a 2-14 team in San Francisco with Brian Hoyer at QB would seem to be a bad career move. However, Garcon currently looks to be the top receiver in a Kyle Shanahan offense and we know how that often turns out. Don't forget that during Shanahan's last season as OC in Washington, Garcon led the team with a league-leading 113 receptions for 1,346 yards. If the Niners manage to land Kirk Cousins in a much-rumored trade... watch out for Garcon to rocket up to high-end WR2 status.

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, NE) 18.05, 209 overall

Sure, he only has two NFL starts under his belt and is stuck behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, but that could all change very quickly. The Bears' signing of Mike Glennon seems to have eliminated them from the Hunt for Jimmy G, but there is a good chance some team (hopefully not the Browns) will make a deal to secure him as their starter. This was the perfect place to take a chance on someone like Garoppolo and could prove to be a savvy move.

Biggest Reaches

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, PHI) 19.05, 221 overall

It's hard to call any 19th round selection a reach, but DGB doesn't even warrant drafting any more. Last season was his chance to show that he had the talent to be a starter, but he flopped instead. He managed to collect less yards (392) on more targets (36) than in his rookie season with Tennessee. The additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith make him an afterthought in Philadelphia.

A.J. McCarron (QB, CIN) 18.08, 212 overall

There is the possibility that McCarron gets traded to a team desperate for a starter. I just don't see it happening. At best, he may get to engage in open competition on a team like the Browns or Jets, but he would then have to win that competition. In fact, even if he were guaranteed to start all 16 games next season, it would still be hard for me to drum up much interest here. He was adequate filling in for Andy Dalton in 2015, completing 66.4% of his passes with a 6/2 TD/INT rate, but any team willing to throw him out there certainly won't have a receiver the caliber of A.J. Green. Hard pass.

Conclusion

The last five rounds of our dynasty mock saw nine QB, 15 RB, 15 WR, 10 TE, five kickers and six defenses selected. including 12 rookies.

Mock drafts are always an interesting exercise in gauging how fellow fantasy owners value players. Our next exercise will be a rookie-only mock to be held shortly after the NFL draft. For those who compete in devy leagues or want to know how this year's rookie crop is being valued, you'll want to follow our continuing analysis closely.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nico Collins

Suffers Concussion Against Steelers
Nico Collins

Carted to Locker Room for Concussion Evaluation
Christian Braun

Unavailable Tuesday
Aaron Gordon

Probable to Play Tuesday
Jamal Murray

in Danger of Missing Another Game Tuesday
Coby White

Sits Out First Leg of Back-to-Back
Josh Giddey

to Remain Out Tuesday
Norman Powell

Uncertain for Tuesday
Jerami Grant

Listed as Doubtful for Tuesday
Deni Avdija

Ruled Out for Tuesday
Jose Alvarado

to Miss Two More Weeks
Brandon Williams

Sits Out Second Consecutive Game
Moussa Cisse

Cleared to Play Monday
Daniel Gafford

Won't Play Against Nets
P.J. Washington

to Miss One More Week
Baylor Scheierman

Makes First Start of Season
Brandon Ingram

Available Monday
Paul George

Good to Go Monday
Joel Embiid

Active on Monday
Sam Hauser

Cleared for Monday
Jaylen Brown

Won't Play Monday
Egor Demin

Inactive Monday
Moussa Cisse

Upgraded to Probable on Monday
Kyle Tucker

Mets Meet With Kyle Tucker
Dalton Kincaid

"Should be Fine" for Divisional Round
Conor Garland

Returns From Five-Game Absence
Kiefer Sherwood

Out Monday, Could Miss Several Weeks
Marco Rossi

to Miss 2-3 More Weeks
Louis Crevier

Back for Blackhawks Monday
Jordan Eberle

Available Against Rangers
Joel Eriksson Ek

Out Monday
Brad Marchand

Misses Third Straight Game
Jamie Benn

Returns to Action Monday
Brooks Koepka

Officially Returning To PGA Tour
Tucker Kraft

Hopes to be Ready for Week 1 of Next Season
CFB

Georgia Lands Kentucky Transfer Dante Dowdell
Matthew Stafford

has "Little Sprain," Should be "Good to Go"
CFB

Sam Leavitt Expected to Sign with LSU
Green Bay Packers

Packers Expected to Work Out New Deal With Matt LaFleur in the "Coming Days"
CFB

Dylan Raiola Commits to Oregon
CFB

Isaiah Horton Landing with Texas A&M
Jet Greaves

Beats Mammoth With 25 Saves
Roman Josi

Ends Dry Spell With Three-Point Effort
Joonas Korpisalo

Shuts Door on Penguins
Jack Hughes

Has Two Helpers in Losing Effort
Tomas Hertl

Matches Vegas Record With Five Points
Justin Sourdif

Exits With Injury Versus Predators
Denton Mateychuk

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Sunday
George Kittle

Suffers Torn Achilles on Sunday
Omarion Hampton

Active for Wild-Card Round Against Patriots
George Kittle

Ruled Out After Non-Contact Achilles Injury
Cole Perfetti

Contributes Two Assists in Sunday's Win
Carl Grundstrom

Misses Sunday's Practice
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Request Interview With Ejiro Evero
Travis Konecny

Hurt at Sunday's Practice
Thatcher Demko

Lands on Injured Reserve
Colin Miller

Injured Versus Devils
Bryan Rust

Remains Out Sunday
Los Angeles Rams

Mike LaFleur to Interview With Raiders and Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers

Steelers Open to Re-Signing Aaron Rodgers?
Matthew Stafford

X-Rays Come Back Negative
MacKenzie Gore

Yankees Pursuing Trade for MacKenzie Gore
Alex Bregman

Cubs Sign Alex Bregman to Five-Year, $175 Millon Contract
Freddie Freeman

Withdraws from World Baseball Classic
Max Kepler

Receives 80-Game PED Suspension
CFB

Cam Coleman Visiting Alabama on Friday
Omarion Hampton

Expects to Play Sunday Night
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Enters Transfer Portal, Trending to Land at Florida
CFB

NCAA Denies Trinidad Chambliss a Sixth Year of Eligibility
Omarion Hampton

Questionable for Wild-Card Weekend
Kyle Tucker

Mets Remain in Mix for Kyle Tucker
Ketel Marte

Will Remain With Diamondbacks
Rashee Rice

to be Reviewed Under League's Conduct Policy
Daniel Jones

Colts Plan to Re-Sign Daniel Jones
Davante Adams

Off the Injury Report, Will Play Against Carolina
Bo Bichette

Phillies to Meet With Bo Bichette
Rome Odunze

Will Return for Wild-Card Game on Saturday
CFB

DJ Lagway Commits to Baylor
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Fire Head Coach Mike McDaniel
Sam LaPorta

Plans to be Back for Training Camp
Owen Caissie

Shipped to Miami as Centerpiece of Trade
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Officially Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Finalizing Deal to Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
CFB

Jackson Arnold Signs with UNLV
CFB

Sam Leavitt Scheduled to Visit Tennessee

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