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Way Too Early Dynasty Mock Draft Analysis - Rounds 16-20


In this space, we will close out our ongoing analysis of RotoBaller's Way Too Early Dynasty Mock Draft by recapping the final rounds, 16-20.

We recently gathered 12 dynasty league experts and RotoBaller writers to conduct a week-long email draft in order to evaluate early ADP values and give readers a sense of what to expect this fall.

If you haven't done so yet, start with our analysis of the first round here. We're reviewing each round in order to give you the best advice on how to approach your early drafts and determine when to target players.

 

Way Too Early Mock Dynasty Draft Analysis

Note: this mock draft was completed on March 11 via MFL10's email draft system.

Round 16

The 16th round presented an interesting mix of veteran and rookie running backs, with Hood and McNichols going ahead of established backs like Stewart and Gore. The best value of them all may turn out to be Rex Burkhead, who looks to claim LeGarrette Blount's role as goal-line back in New England. Torrey Smith and Cordarrelle Patterson had terrible production in 2016, but a change of scenery make both tremendous sleeper candidates.

 

Round 17

The first pick of round 17, Mitch Trubisky, could turn out to be one of the top picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. One would guess that his fantasy stock will rise once he has a team to call home, especially if there is a clear path to early playing time. A pair of Clemson Tigers, including Heisman winner Deshaun Watson, are finally taken late in the round. There is serious bounce back potential with current Jaguar, Blake Bortles, and former Jag, Julius Thomas. Pierre Garcon stands out as one of the best picks in this section of the draft, despite what would appear to be a serious downgrade in team situation.

 

Round 18

Let the tight end run commence! Rookies Hodges and Butt were followed by another popular sleeper, Jack Doyle, and later Vance McDonald. I have totally opposing opinions on the quarterbacks selected in this round. Garoppolo is a smart choice as a breakout candidate, while A.J. McCarron figures to have limited upside, even if he somehow manages to find a starting job.

 

Round 19

A couple of reclamation projects at receiver, Michael Floyd and Dorial Green-Beckham, are lottery tickets in the second-to-last round of this draft. DeShone Kizer was once considered a possible first-round prospect, but a poor combine showing has made him less appealing and available at the tail end of fantasy drafts. The order kickers are drafted is usually meaningless, but it was interesting to see Roberto Aguayo taken ahead of Mr. Reliable, Stephen Gostkowski.

 

Round 20

It's hard to imagine a Manning being labeled Mr. Irrelevant, but that's how this draft played out with Eli as the 240th overall pick. Chris Ivory and Chris Thompson look to be throwaway picks in the final round, as both are likely to be replaced in their respective offenses next season. Pat Mahomes is the last rookie selected at #230 overall - a move that could be valuable depending on his landing spot.

 

Best Picks

Frank Gore (RB, IND) 16.10, 190 overall

33 year-old running backs aren't a hot commodity in any fantasy draft, but this is an exception. Even taking into account the dynasty format, the 16th round is pretty late for Frank Gore after he ran for 1,025 yards and scored eight total touchdowns last season. There is still no threat to his starting job, so he could easily be a low-end RB2 once again. If the Colts finally draft a replacement, Gore still makes for an adequate fantasy backup at this point in the draft.

Pierre Garcon (WR, SF) 17.07, 199 overall

On the surface, moving to a 2-14 team in San Francisco with Brian Hoyer at QB would seem to be a bad career move. However, Garcon currently looks to be the top receiver in a Kyle Shanahan offense and we know how that often turns out. Don't forget that during Shanahan's last season as OC in Washington, Garcon led the team with a league-leading 113 receptions for 1,346 yards. If the Niners manage to land Kirk Cousins in a much-rumored trade... watch out for Garcon to rocket up to high-end WR2 status.

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, NE) 18.05, 209 overall

Sure, he only has two NFL starts under his belt and is stuck behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, but that could all change very quickly. The Bears' signing of Mike Glennon seems to have eliminated them from the Hunt for Jimmy G, but there is a good chance some team (hopefully not the Browns) will make a deal to secure him as their starter. This was the perfect place to take a chance on someone like Garoppolo and could prove to be a savvy move.

Biggest Reaches

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, PHI) 19.05, 221 overall

It's hard to call any 19th round selection a reach, but DGB doesn't even warrant drafting any more. Last season was his chance to show that he had the talent to be a starter, but he flopped instead. He managed to collect less yards (392) on more targets (36) than in his rookie season with Tennessee. The additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith make him an afterthought in Philadelphia.

A.J. McCarron (QB, CIN) 18.08, 212 overall

There is the possibility that McCarron gets traded to a team desperate for a starter. I just don't see it happening. At best, he may get to engage in open competition on a team like the Browns or Jets, but he would then have to win that competition. In fact, even if he were guaranteed to start all 16 games next season, it would still be hard for me to drum up much interest here. He was adequate filling in for Andy Dalton in 2015, completing 66.4% of his passes with a 6/2 TD/INT rate, but any team willing to throw him out there certainly won't have a receiver the caliber of A.J. Green. Hard pass.

Conclusion

The last five rounds of our dynasty mock saw nine QB, 15 RB, 15 WR, 10 TE, five kickers and six defenses selected. including 12 rookies.

Mock drafts are always an interesting exercise in gauging how fellow fantasy owners value players. Our next exercise will be a rookie-only mock to be held shortly after the NFL draft. For those who compete in devy leagues or want to know how this year's rookie crop is being valued, you'll want to follow our continuing analysis closely.




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