Tyler Glasnow (SP, TB) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values

February 23, 2019

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow is a 2019 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and mid-round SP sleeper to target.

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 150

CURRENT ADP: ~175 overall

ANALYSIS: The Rays acquired Tyler Glasnow at the end of July in the Chris Archer trade. Glasnow was only used out of the bullpen for Pittsburgh, racking up 56 innings before the trade. Despite his below average ERA of 4.34 pre-trade, he managed to strike out 11.6 batters per nine innings. Walks were the main issue, as he allowed almost 5.5 free passes per nine.

Once he was shipped to Tampa, Glasnow continued to show his strikeout skills. He sported a 10.4 K/9 and improved his walk rate to a still below-average 3.1 per nine. With the Rays, he pitched to a slightly improved 4.20 ERA, but in came the home run ball. With Tampa, Glasnow allowed 10 home runs over 55.2 innings pitched or 1.63 per nine innings. This is compared to five home runs over 56 IP with Pitt (0.80 per nine). The one stat that catches the eye is his home run per fly ball rate. We mentioned above that the homers came more often with the Rays, but on the season as a whole, he posted a miserable HR/FB rate of 18.3%. The league average is about 10%. With a small sample size of 111 innings, you can almost guarantee that he will begin to post rates closer to the average, improving his ERA going forward. This is also shown in his xFIP of 3.47 which is much better than his ERA of 4.27 on the year. xFIP filters out some of the HR/FB% fluctuations and normalizes the performance. Assuming his ERA drops closer to his xFIP in 2019, the Rays have another ace behind Blake Snell.

The Rays look to have another under-the-radar starting pitcher with the potential to have a massive year. If you could guarantee 170 innings from him (signs point to this being a real possibility), he’d be a surefire SP3 with upside. Glasnow should not be overlooked in any format and will pay off for owners who take him around his 173 ADP, which would mean he’s being drafted as an SP4 or SP5 depending on league size.