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It is still far too early in the season to be certain of a player’s long-term fantasy football outlook. Unfortunately, judgments and tough decisions must be made as productive prospects are available on waivers and disappointing assets are clogging your bench.
One player firmly in the latter category that has been the subject of much discussion lately is New York Giants wide receiver Kadarius Toney.
Is it time to cut bait and release Toney, or should fantasy managers continue to be patient with him? The answer may not be so obvious, so let’s take a closer look.
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Kadarius Toney's Elite Ceiling
Toney flashed incredible upside in his 2021 rookie campaign, both from a fantasy and real-life football perspective. He looked electric and passed the eye test every time he had the ball in his hands. Toney started to get involved in Week 3 but was only able to play on 50% or more of snaps in seven games from that point on. In those games, Toney accumulated 52 targets, good for over seven per game.
The number that jumps off the page, though, is his targets per route run. Targets per route run is an interesting metric because it disregards snap counts and games played and only focuses on how often a player is getting looks when he is a receiving option. For the season, Toney was targeted on just under 29% of his routes which was seventh-most in the NFL. This outpaced many superstars including Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. Sure, we don’t have a huge sample size, but clearly, Toney had no trouble getting open.
Another metric that sets Toney apart from his peers is juke rate. If you’ve seen him play, it should be no surprise to learn that he evaded more tackles than any other player in the league last season on a per-touch basis. Toney was more difficult to bring down than Deebo Samuel or Jonathan Taylor.
KT 🕹
📺: @NFLonFOX & Giants App pic.twitter.com/f1JFzOZZmf
— New York Giants (@Giants) October 3, 2021
We could dive deeper into advanced analytics and peripheral statistics, but what about actual, cold, hard production? Toney was a fantasy WR3 or better in PPR scoring three times last year and peaked as the WR5 overall in a Week 5 breakout performance in which he posted 10 receptions for 189 yards on 13 targets.
Again, there isn’t a large collection of data to work with here, especially when you consider the fact that Toney was not a full-time player to start the season and was hampered by numerous injuries throughout it. Still, his abilities were on full display when he was healthy, and he showcased an elite ceiling.
This ceiling had many fantasy players excited to select Toney in the double-digit rounds of 2022 drafts. They may now be regretting that choice, though.
Kadarius Toney's Slow Start In 2022
In two games so far this season, Toney has played on just 35 snaps, turning his four touches into 23 yards. If there is one positive to take away from his slow start, it’s that he saw a large uptick in snaps in Week 2 after barely seeing the field in the season opener.
The #Giants played six different receivers today
- David Sills (64 snaps)
- Sterling Shepard (61 )
- Richie James (30 )
- Kadarius Toney (26 )
- Darius Slayton (4 )
- Kenny Golladay (2 )Golladay 2021 cap hit: $21.15m
Sills + Shepard + James + Toney + Slayton cap hit: $12.27m— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) September 19, 2022
Fellow Giants receiver Kenny Golladay saw his snap count decrease from 46 in Week 1 to two last week. This could be a good sign for Toney as Golladay has likely fallen out of favor with the Giants’ new coaching regime and may request a trade. It will be hard for the team to move on from him given the massive contract that pays him like a top-20 wideout, but Toney should retain a higher spot on the depth chart if he can stay on the field.
Sadly, this is a huge "if."
Kadarius Toney's Injury History
As mentioned previously, Toney didn’t see many opportunities until Week 3 last season, but he still suited up and played in Weeks 1 and 2. He exited in the fourth quarter of Week 5, left Week 6 on the first drive, and missed seven full games due to various injuries throughout the season.
What’s even more concerning is that Toney’s laundry list of injuries dates back to his freshman year at Florida. He dealt with shoulder injuries that forced him to miss multiple games in 2017 and 2019.
The range of injuries Toney has dealt with in his young career is worrisome. In addition to his shoulder, Toney has had issues with his hamstring, ankle, quad, oblique, and knee. The phrase "injury-prone" is probably thrown around too often in such a violent sport that causes players to go down randomly on any given Sunday, but it's difficult to make a case against using this phrase to describe Toney.
Despite missing some training camp and preseason action due to injuries, Toney, in his own words, was "100% healthy" to begin 2022, but it didn't take long for him to pop up on the injury report. He was questionable with a hamstring injury ahead of Week 2 and is now dealing with soreness after playing, leaving him questionable for Week 3.
There have been 19 games during Toney’s career. He’s been on the injury report in 14 of those weeks. Of the five weeks he wasn’t on the injury report, he left two of those games with injuries https://t.co/zfdXRxZ2QF
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) September 16, 2022
Toney is undoubtedly a fun player to watch, so fans are rooting for him to stay healthy and on the field. It's just becoming increasingly difficult to have faith in him to do so.
What To Do With Kadarius Toney In 2022 Fantasy Leagues
I do believe that Toney is going to get an opportunity to be a featured player on the Giants' offense this season. Although he was not selected by the team's current general manager or head coach, he was still a first-round draft pick and has shined on numerous occasions.
Even with minimal involvement to begin the season, Toney has kept a positive attitude and supported his teammates. When asked about his lack of playing time after a Week 1 victory, Toney shut down the reporter and said that it did not matter to him because the Giants got the win. When the team improved to 2-0, Toney celebrated with his quarterback despite finishing the game with two receptions and zero yards.
KT means what he says, he just wants to WIN. He had 2 catches today for 0 yards.
Great Teammate! He will get it going. Love to see this. #TogetherBlue pic.twitter.com/gNFqXASwEE
— Lᴀᴡʀᴇɴᴄᴇ Tʏɴᴇs (@lt4kicks) September 18, 2022
Golladay, on the other hand, cleaned out his locker and left immediately following the Giants' win. Later in the week, he made it very clear to the media that he feels he should be on the field more.
Why is any of this relevant to your fantasy football team? It's very possible that the Giants are trying to ease Toney into a greater workload given his injury history. He should be rewarded with playing time due to his dedication to the organization and simply because he is too talented to continuously bench for players like Richie James and David Sills.
Even still, the risk that is associated with putting Toney in your lineup cannot be ignored. He already has an injury designation two weeks into the season and is liable to exit a game early the very week you decide to start him.
If you are in a deep league with unattractive free agents, hanging onto Toney for the time being feels like the right move. If he starts to get integrated into the offense and plays a few games in full, he will certainly be worth a roster spot as we have seen his potential.
In more traditional leagues, however, Toney can absolutely be dropped for a hot commodity on the waiver wire. Let another manager take the chance on him while you roster a backup running back or a wide receiver that is actually producing.
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