X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Risers/Fallers - wOBA - xwOBA (Week 5)

We continue our RotoBaller series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and I enlighten myself on the information and tools at my disposal.

With a month of baseball in the books, most starting pitchers have logged at least five starts and the impact of single-game results on season statlines are becoming less volatile. Sure, a disastrous outing can still wreck your ratios, but stabilization is settling in. wOBA and xwOBA are two metrics popular with the hitting vernacular. Today we'll flip the script and observe pitchers with a wide delta between their wOBA and xwOBA (wOBA-minus-xwOBA).

Since wOBA measures the actual outcome value of an at-bat and xwOBA observes expected outcomes based on Statcast information (i.e. exit velocity, launch angle), we'll draw conclusions on players with large differences between the two metrics. Our argument is simple: pitchers with a lower wOBA than their xwOBA are due for a downturn. Likewise, a wOBA in excess of xwOBA means unlucky batted-ball events, and these pitchers' fortunes may become more favorable. For reference, out of 122 pitchers that have thrown over 400 pitches this season, the median xwOBA is .339.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

Due for a Turnaround

All stats as of April 30, 2018

Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves (1-1, 4.23 ERA, 1.48 WHIP)

Sean Newcomb has posted two quality starts in five total outings. His last start against Cincinnati was great until he unraveled in the fifth, allowing four runs and taking a no-decision. Through 27.2 innings, Newcomb is 21st-best in xwOBA at .290 but carries a .318 wOBA. His delta of .028 ranks fourth unluckiest in the majors.

Newcomb holds a solid 3.65 FIP and 11.06 K/9 in 2018. He owns a below-average Hard% of 28.8% and is 17th-best in Soft% at 24.7%. He's also limited barrels (Brls), with only 2.5% Brls per plate appearance and 4.1% Brls per batted-ball event (BBE). Newcomb's batted-ball distribution suggests he's pitched better than the headline numbers, the results just haven't caught up. A 67.9% LOB% has also not been kind.

Newcomb has battled wildness, placing some blame on his account. A poor 4.55 BB/9 dilutes the strikeout prowess and has likely restricted him from unleashing his putaway pitches at will. The pitch burden of too many BBs and Ks have also limited his ability to exceed six innings in any start, further deferring the taste of sweet victory. If Newcomb can harness the walks, his strikeout talent could lead to better results. He'll get the New York Mets in his next start.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (1-4, 4.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)

Dallas Keuchel also sports a respectable .293 xwOBA but a .314 wOBA has resulted in an unfavorable delta of .021. Keuchel was knocked around for six earned runs on April 27 against Oakland but aside from that, it's been a hum-ho start for the former Cy Young winner.

Keuchel is currently in the top quartile of pitchers in Brl data, allowing only 3.3% Brls/PA and 4.4% Brls/BBE. He's not giving up much hard contact (23.9% Hard%) but the outlier in 2018 has been a 27.4% FB% that's the highest since his rookie season in 2012. Throughout Keuchel's career, he's held an elevated 15.5% HR/FB but this year it's 19.4%. Combine the bloated FB% with the inflated HR/FB and the concoctions for undesirable consequences are apparent.

The case for Keuchel is his long-term resume. Unlike Newcomb, Keuchel's FIP (4.79) isn't helping him in the argument. However, the prevailing HR/FB and FB% anomalies should normalize over a full season. Keuchel's fastball velocity seems fine, and the normally-killer sliders and changeups are being punished by opposing batters. Keuchel gets a tough draw against the New York Yankees this week, but his track record and promising batted-ball quality have his arrow pointing (somewhat-convincingly) up.

Other potential underachievers: Chris Archer (TB, .025 wOBA-xwOBA), Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU, .018), Jon Gray (COL, .015)

 

Due for a Downturn

Jarlin Garcia, Miami Marlins (1-0, 1.00 ERA, 0.81 WHIP)

Jarlin Garcia's anonymity was outed on April 17 when he achieved a victory in the Bronx against the Yankees. In his next outing, Garcia followed-up by outdueling heralded phenom Walker Buehler in a no-decision versus the Dodgers. But under the pristine hood, Garcia's 34th-worst xwOBA (.364) pairs oddly with an extraordinary wOBA of .197. His -.167 delta is the widest in the majors by a significant margin.

Garcia's ERA is currently second best in the majors, but his FIP (4.00) is 44th. The smoke and mirrors are further embellished by a .121 BABIP and 99.0% LOB%. The batted-ball results do not mesh with the Statcast data. Garcia finds himself amongst the highest in exit velocity (89.4 MPH), Brls/BBE (11.8%) and Brls/PA (8.0%). A substandard 4.0 BB/9 affirms his WHIP has wholly been attributed to lucky BBEs.

Garcia's surprise emergence has been the result of very strong pitch values for his slider and changeup. However, he's still a contact pitcher with a mediocre 6.67 K/9. Garcia could remain serviceable intermittently this season, but the present run-rate doesn't feel sustainable. Last season in 68 relief appearances, Garcia's FIP was 4.23, in-line with 2018. That seems like a realistic target for his landing spot by season's end. His next start comes at home against the Phillies.

Jake Junis, Kansas City Royals (3-2, 3.34 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)

Jake Junis started the season with 14 innings of shutout baseball and two victories. Since then, the magic has eroded gradually, culminating in a six-run implosion against the lowly White Sox where he allowed five homeruns. In terms of wOBA (.281) and xwOBA (.371), Junis holds the eighth-largest discrepancy at -.090.

After the clunker against the Southsiders, the variance in Junis' expected and actual performance has already narrowed meaningfully. While his exit velocity is average, Junis is third-highest in Brls/BBE (14.1%) and fourth in Brls/PA (10.2%). This is partially explained by the five long balls surrendered in his last outing, but batters appear to have no trouble squaring him up (19.0% HR/FB). Junis has also been the beneficiary of a 96.0% LOB% and .155 BABIP. His existing ERA is a far cry from a 5.78 FIP that is sixth-worst in the majors.

Unlike Garcia, Junis exhibits great control (1.95 BB/9) that embodies a portion of the strong WHIP. But a low-90s fastball complemented by a modest arsenal seemingly justifies the unremarkable 6.96 K/9. Junis' HR/FB clip could shrink, but batted-balls will inevitably find grass before glove; his 14.1% LD% is too depressed to hold serve. Junis gets his next opportunity against the Red Sox in Boston.

Other potential overachievers: Sean Manaea (OAK, -.109 wOBA-xwOBA), Bartolo Colon (TEX, -.075), Trevor Williams (PIT, -.071)

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zac Gallen4 hours ago

Gets Opening Day Nod
Nolan Schanuel5 hours ago

Injury Isn't Serious
Isaiah Stewart6 hours ago

Injured Against Boston
Duncan Robinson6 hours ago

Doesn't Return On Monday
Jackson Chourio6 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Anthony Davis6 hours ago

Cleared To Meet Atlanta
Blake Snell7 hours ago

Heading To The Giants
Onyeka Okongwu7 hours ago

To Return On Monday
Bryce McGowens8 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Tyus Jones8 hours ago

Won't Play On Tuesday
Deni Avdija8 hours ago

Unavailable For Tuesday
Nick Martinez8 hours ago

To Open The Year In The Rotation
OG Anunoby8 hours ago

Set For Multi-Game Absence
Kyle Kuzma8 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday
Luka Doncic8 hours ago

Considered Probable For Tuesday
Matt McLain8 hours ago

Scratched With Shoulder Soreness
Bilal Coulibaly8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of Season
Kenley Jansen8 hours ago

Scheduled To Make Four More Spring Appearances
Jackson Chourio8 hours ago

"In The Mix" For Roster Spot
Rudy Gobert8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Scoot Henderson8 hours ago

Returns To Starting Unit Without Restrictions
Matisse Thybulle9 hours ago

Available Again On Monday
Jerami Grant9 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Monday
Lauri Markkanen9 hours ago

Returns To Action On Monday
Alex Caruso9 hours ago

Ready To Roll Monday
Coby White9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Kristaps Porzingis9 hours ago

Returns To Celtics Lineup
Jaylen Brown9 hours ago

Ready To Go On Monday
Jayson Tatum9 hours ago

Won't Play Against Detroit
Teuvo Teravainen10 hours ago

Misses Second Straight Game
Joshua Dobbs10 hours ago

49ers Reach Agreement With Joshua Dobbs
TOR10 hours ago

Mitch Marner To Miss At Least Two More Games
Jacob Markstrom10 hours ago

Could Return This Weekend
Rico Dowdle10 hours ago

Staying With Cowboys
Mikhail Sergachev10 hours ago

Skates On Monday
Dustin Wolf10 hours ago

Between The Pipes Monday
New Orleans Saints10 hours ago

Saints Expected To Sign Chase Young
Alexander Mattison10 hours ago

Signing With Raiders
DJ LeMahieu12 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Opening Day
Buffalo Bills12 hours ago

Taron Johnson Re-Signs With Bills On Three-Year Deal
José Urquidy12 hours ago

Jose Urquidy Has Forearm Strain, Will Begin On Injured List
Justin Verlander12 hours ago

Expected To Face Hitters "In The Next Day Or Two"
Corey Seager12 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice Monday
Aaron Judge12 hours ago

Likely To Play In Four Of Final Six Spring Games
Garrett Crochet12 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Nolan Schanuel12 hours ago

Scratched With Back Tightness
Dallas Cowboys12 hours ago

Leighton Vander Esch Calling It A Career
DJ LeMahieu13 hours ago

Still Pretty Sore
Aaron Judge14 hours ago

To Return On Wednesday
Jhoan Duran14 hours ago

To Begin Season On Injured List
Bryan Battle14 hours ago

Bout Ends in Controversy
Ange Loosa14 hours ago

Fight Ruled A No-Contest After Accidental Eye Poke
Ovince Saint Preux14 hours ago

Wins Split Decision In A Back-And-Forth Fight
Kennedy Nzechukwu14 hours ago

Suffers Split-Decision Loss To Ovince Saint Preux
Gerald Meerschaert15 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Shohei Ohtani15 hours ago

Cleared To Begin Throwing Program
Bryan Barberena15 hours ago

Submitted In The Second Round
Kyle Manzardo15 hours ago

Sent To Minor-League Camp
Jackson Merrill15 hours ago

Wins Center Field Job
Denny Hamlin16 hours ago

Emerges Victorious For Second Bristol Win In A Row
Alexander Mattison16 hours ago

Visiting With Raiders
Dak Prescott16 hours ago

Cowboys Restructure Dak Prescott's Contract
Dmitry Orlov17 hours ago

Collects Four Points In Big Win
Tyler Toffoli17 hours ago

Dominates Against Columbus With Three Points
Lucas Raymond17 hours ago

Pots Pair Of Goals Versus Penguins
Kaz Grala17 hours ago

Finishes 19th At Bristol Motor Speedway
Bo Horvat17 hours ago

Scores Twice In Losing Effort
Brad Keselowski18 hours ago

Exceeds Value In DFS At Bristol Motor Speedway
Pavel Buchnevich18 hours ago

Delivers Three Assists In Sunday's Win
Ryan Lindgren18 hours ago

Suffers Leg Injury Versus Islanders
Kyle Larson18 hours ago

After 5th at Bristol: "I Hope I Never Have To Run A Race Like That Again"
Chase Elliott18 hours ago

Earns First Top 10 Finish Of 2024
Justin Haley18 hours ago

Earns Best NextGen Short Track Finish for Rick Ware Racing
Ty Gibbs19 hours ago

Has Dominant Day at Bristol but Fades Late
John Hunter Nemechek23 hours ago

Found Speed At Bristol
Chris Buescher23 hours ago

Secures Top 10 At Bristol
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Late Charge to Fourth Masks Early Race Struggles
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Ran Well, But His Teammates Were All Better
Martin Truex Jr1 day ago

. Matches Career-Best Finish At Bristol
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Fades to 16th at Bristol After Handling Struggles
Russell Wilson2 days ago

Still Considered The Starter
William Byron2 days ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Bristol
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Starts 19th At Bristol After Damage In Practice
Justin Haley2 days ago

Scores A Starting Position Of 32nd For Bristol
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Should Compete For The Win At Bristol
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

History Indicates Brad Keselowski Being A Favorable Bristol Play
Joey Logano2 days ago

Should Be Rostered With Caution At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Is Tyler Reddick Worth Rostering At Bristol This Week?
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Could Work As A Tournament Play At Bristol
Alexander Nylander2 days ago

Totals Three Points In Saturday's Win
Sebastian Aho2 days ago

Leads Hurricanes To Victory In Toronto
Owen Tippett2 days ago

Delivers Three Assists In High-Scoring Loss
Steven Stamkos2 days ago

Extends Scoring Streak With Four-Point Performance
Nick Schmaltz2 days ago

Records Three Assists In Win Over New Jersey
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Racks Up Five Points In Saturday's Win
Brady Tkachuk2 days ago

Sinks Islanders With Third Hat Trick
Pannie Kianzad2 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Macy Chiasson2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Isaac Dulgarian2 days ago

Suffers First Career Loss
Christian Rodriguez2 days ago

Overcomes Early Adversity At UFC Vegas 88
Tai Tuivasa2 days ago

Suffers Fourth Straight Loss
Marcin Tybura2 days ago

Gets First-Round Submission
Justin Fields2 days ago

Traded To The Steelers
NHL2 days ago

Lukas Reichel Will Be In The Lineup Sunday
Cale Makar2 days ago

A Game-Time Decision Saturday
Zach Parise2 days ago

Likely To Return Saturday
Michael Gallup3 days ago

Panthers Bringing In Michael Gallup For A Visit
Mike Williams3 days ago

Panthers To Host Mike Williams On A Visit
New York Jets3 days ago

Jets Expected To Sign Tyron Smith
AJ Dillon3 days ago

Officially Re-Signs With Packers
Van Jefferson3 days ago

Steelers Signing Van Jefferson
Jakobi Meyers3 days ago

Raiders Restructure Jakobi Meyers' Contract
Jimmy Garoppolo3 days ago

Rams Agree With Jimmy Garoppolo On One-Year Deal
Gerald Meerschaert3 days ago

To Fight In Main Event Of UFC Vegas 88
Bryan Barberena3 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Kennedy Nzechukwu3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Ovince Saint Preux3 days ago

Set For 27th UFC Appearance
Bryan Battle3 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Ange Loosa3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 88
San Francisco 49ers3 days ago

De'Vondre Campbell Heading To San Francisco
Dallas Cowboys4 days ago

Leighton Vander Esch Being Cut By Cowboys
Michael Gallup4 days ago

Cowboys Releasing Michael Gallup
Kenny Pickett4 days ago

Steelers Sending Kenny Pickett To Eagles
Pannie Kianzad5 days ago

Looking For Redemption At UFC Vegas 88
Macy Chiasson5 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Vegas 88
Isaac Dulgarian5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 88
Christiaan Bezuidenhout6 days ago

Looking To Put It All Together At TPC Sawgrass
Eric Cole6 days ago

Rebounding Well In The Sunshine State
Brian Harman6 days ago

Playing The Dark-Horse Role Again At The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick6 days ago

Searching For Answers Thus Far In 2024
Sahith Theegala6 days ago

One Of The Tour's Fastest Risers To Start The New Year
Sam Burns6 days ago

Brings A Stellar Run Of Form Into TPC Sawgrass
PGA6 days ago

Sungjae Im Trending Up After Arnold Palmer Success
Jason Day6 days ago

Facing Iron Hiccup Heading To The Players
Tom Hoge6 days ago

Brings Strong Form And History To Sawgrass
Min Woo Lee6 days ago

Ready For Second Trip To Sawgrass
Will Zalatoris6 days ago

Working Toward A Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Free Agency Tracker - Updates On Every Free Agent Signing (2024)

The legal tampering period for NFL free agency begins on March 11 at noon EST, so news of signings will be flying in all week. Veterans like Russell Wilson and Jonnu Smith were released before their contracts expired, meaning they got a head start on free agency and have already reached agreements with new organizations.... Read More


Rome Odunze - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Coach Knows Ball: Rome Odunze NFL Draft Film Breakdown of Washington WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Winners and Losers of 2024 NFL Free Agency (Teams)

Well, strap in, folks, because the first week of 2024 NFL Free Agency was a rollercoaster ride. Some teams made power moves while others seemingly snoozed at the switch. The Houston Texans, for instance, came out swinging, pulling off some of the savviest deals that could very well tilt the scales in their favor this... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Next Gen Stats Review: 2023 Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

A while back, we covered the Next Gen Stats for running backs, including rushing yards over expected and the percentage of plays with eight or more defenders in the box. Check out the running back review of the Next Gen Stats, as it adds a layer to player analysis. We love the advanced stats for... Read More


Keenan Allen - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Keenan Allen Traded To Bears: Fantasy Football Impact

Star wide receiver Keenan Allen has been one of the more underrated players in the NFL over the past few years. He spent the first 11 years of his career with the Los Angeles Chargers, playing for the franchise since their days in San Diego. However, the team reportedly asked Allen to take a pay... Read More


Marquise Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Marquise Brown Signs With Chiefs: Fantasy Football Impact

Veteran wide receiver Marquise Brown signed a one-year contract with the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday. Brown hopes to follow JuJu Smith-Schuster’s footprints by playing on a one-year deal with the Chiefs and earning a multi-year big-money contract the following offseason. The former Oklahoma star spent the first three years of his career with the... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Will The Vikings Trade Justin Jefferson? 2024 NFL Outlook

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is one of the top players in the NFL. The superstar was part of an impressive 2020 NFL Draft class. Yet, he was the fifth wide receiver off the board. Jefferson has been a superstar since his rookie year, making three consecutive Pro Bowl teams and All-Pro rosters to... Read More


Marquise Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Top Free Agency Fits For Marquise Brown – 2024 Free Agent Outlook

Free agent wide receiver Marquise Brown is one of the more explosive players in the NFL. The veteran wide receiver ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at his Pro Day coming out of Oklahoma. He was a first-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens in the 2019 NFL Draft. Brown has spent most of his career as... Read More


Nico Collins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings For 2024 Best Ball Leagues (Tiers 4-9)

We have now entered the process of free agency, which is providing pathways for some wide receivers to seize significant roles in their new landing spots. The player movement that has ensued will also decrease the stock of other receivers whose roles will decrease within their reshaped depth charts. Participation in the best ball draft... Read More


Cade Otton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2024 Best Ball Tight End Sleepers

Top tight ends such as Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce are bound to put up quality fantasy football numbers weekly, but most tight ends are unpredictable. The top tier of tight ends are reliable for fantasy football purposes, but most tight ends are boom-or-bust type of players. Even though it is hard to hit on... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

D'Andre Swift Signs With Bears: Fantasy Football Impact

Newly signed Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift has been one of the most promising, but also underperforming running backs across the NFL and the fantasy landscape in recent years. After three injury-riddled seasons in Detroit where he showed flashes of greatness but didn't quite live up to the hype, Swift was traded to the... Read More


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Top 50 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings After the 2024 NFL Combine

With the NFL Combine in our rearview mirror, now is a logical time to put out an up-to-date rankings for this year’s NFL Draft. Below, you will find my top-50 players who have declared for this NFL Draft. Below those ranks, you will also find several fantasy-relevant notes I have on this class, and on... Read More


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Calvin Ridley Signs With Titans: Fantasy Football Impact

The Tennessee Titans made a huge move once NFL free agency officially opened. They signed wide receiver Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million contract with $50 million fully guaranteed. Ridley was the top receiver on the open market. The Titans swooped in out of left field and signed him to give second-year quarterback Will... Read More