RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
Brian Harman has taken a commanding four-stroke lead heading into the weekend, having recorded two rounds of 6-under. He is followed by Keith Mitchell, who is at 8-under after carding a 72 in Round 2. Close behind are Sam Ryder, Matt Wallace, and Ryo Hisatsune, all at 7-under. Harman has only made three bogeys over the first two rounds, making it challenging for others to catch up as long as he maintains a somewhat clean scorecard through the weekend. Mitchell has a real opportunity to close the gap if he can replicate the performance he displayed in Round 1, where he made seven birdies, one eagle, and no bogeys.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The weather forecast for tomorrow predicts windier conditions than in the first two rounds, and it should remain steady throughout most of the day.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners hasn't been stellar in his first two rounds, but we know he can go low. In Round 1, Conners gained 0.36 strokes on approach and 1.12 strokes putting, but he lost 1.44 strokes around the green. In Round 2, he lost 0.18 strokes on approach, which is generally one of the strong points of his game. He also struggled with his putting, losing 1.27 strokes in Round 2. Conners is capable of much better in his approach game, and I'm hoping tomorrow he'll show us what we saw in Round 1 and sink more birdies.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Keegan Bradley recorded a 3-under 69 in Round 2, with his only blemish being a double bogey on hole one. Generally, Bradley has been one of the top putters on tour this season, but he struggled with his putting, losing 1.91 strokes in Round 1 and 0.52 in Round 2. On a positive note, he gained 0.67 strokes on approach in Round 1 and 0.90 in Round 2. Although he was better with the flat stick in Round 1 than in Round 2, Bradley is EXACTLY the kind of bounce-back candidate we want to target for our lineups tomorrow.
Other Options: Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay
Monday Qualifier Austen Christiansen HOLE OUT on his PGA debut!! pic.twitter.com/t3BigWJzJ9
— Valero Texas Open (@valerotxopen) April 4, 2025
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Maverick McNealy has been solid in both of his rounds so far. In Round 1, on approach, he gained 1.98 strokes, but in Round 2, he struggled with his approach game, losing 2.07 strokes. However, his putting has been impressive; he gained 0.75 strokes on the greens in Round 1 and improved by gaining 1.71 with the flat stick in Round 2. Although he had a solid day putting in Round 2, he needs to execute on approach tomorrow to have a chance to go low. If McNealy can match the approach play we saw in Round 1, he will create the opportunities he needs to score low.
Other Options: Tony Finau, Ben Griffin, Harry Hall
WHAT AN ACE. FINAU TO GET INSIDE THE NUMBER 🔥🤯#ValeroTexasOpen I #VTOpic.twitter.com/EMrf8MD27k
— Valero Texas Open (@valerotxopen) April 4, 2025
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Brian Harman has been OUTSTANDING in both rounds so far. As I mentioned earlier, he has only recorded three bogeys over the first two rounds. Most importantly, his approach play has been EXCELLENT—he gained 2.94 strokes in Round 1 and 2.44 strokes in Round 2. Additionally, he gained 2.98 strokes putting and 1.72 strokes in Round 2. I don’t see any reason for Harman to take his foot off the gas tomorrow; I expect him to stay aggressive and position himself to win on Sunday.
Other Options: Andrew Novak, Ryan Gerard, Sam Ryder, Sami Valimaki
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Carson Young posted a 1-under par 71 today. In Round 1, he had only one bogey and six birdies, gaining 2.76 strokes on approach. However, in Round 2, he lost 0.38 strokes on approach. He played well with the flat stick in both rounds, gaining 1.56 strokes putting in Round 1 and 1.14 strokes in Round 2. Similar to McNealy, he has demonstrated that he has the greens figured out and is it rolling it well with the flat stick. Young has positioned himself well off the tee, executed on approach, and created opportunities for birdies.
Other Options: Adam Svensson, Cameron Young, Doug Ghim, Alejandro Tosti
CAMMMM with a 67-foot putt for eagle! 🦅pic.twitter.com/W8KO0PQuc3
— Valero Texas Open (@valerotxopen) April 4, 2025
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Aldrich Potgieter lost 0.24 strokes on approach in Round 1 but gained 2.13 strokes putting. In Round 2, he bounced back by gaining 0.63 strokes on approach, although he lost 0.67 strokes putting. He is exactly the type of golfer we want to target in this section of the article—someone who can excel with their approach game and has demonstrated the ability to perform well on the greens, but left some birdie opportunities out there.
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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