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Overrated/Underrated Week 8: Sell Shields, Buy Hendricks

Alex Chamberlain provides two underrated/undervalued fantasy baseball players that could replace overrated/overvalued players on your fantasy teams in Week Eight.

Week 1 (OF/SP) | Week 2 (OF/SP) | Week 3 (SS) | Week 4 (1B) | Week 5 | Week 6 (SP) | Week 7 (2B)

* * *

Comin' atcha hot: this week's daily dose of player ownership discrepancies and misvaluations. Depending on the depth and settings of your league, there's a chance you can get through an entire championship season without making a single trade. Per Fleaflicker's data, there are plenty of quality players on the waiver wire to go around.

This week, I look at starting pitchers. There's a ton of them, and the way their good and bad performances crop up overnight make for volatile fluctations in their value -- sometimes warranted, sometimes not. I'm here to sift through the noise.

 

Overrated

James Shields, SDP
80% owned, via Fleaflicker

I don't know how many times I can start off one of these analyses with, "I just don't get it," but: I just don't get it. Now, in Shields' owners' defense, Shields looks better than last year, as far as his 3.07 ERA is concerned. And his 3.96 xFIP is only a few point worse than last year's mark, which was only a few points worse than his usual marks.

But xFIP may not be the appropriate measure here anymore. xFIP assumes pitchers don't have much control over what happens to the fly balls they allow. I don't know if that's a safe assumption to make with Shields. He has always had a bit of a home run problem, and it has been especially bad the last two years. The 4.09 FIP is something closer to what we should expect from him. He's currently benefitting from a nice 83.8% stand rate, or left-on-base percentage (LOB%), helping suppress his ERA.

He's somehow managing the second-best ERA of his career despite what are, by far, his worst-ever peripherals. He lost last year's strikeouts while sustaining the unsightly walk rate (BB%). He's still living outside the zone -- his 42.3% zone percentage (Zone%) is slightly better than last year's mark, according to PITCHf/x, but still way worse than his peak. This isn't a problem when hitters are chasing bad pitches. But they're not; in fact, hitters are chasing Shields' bad pitches less often than ever before.

Meanwhile, Shields' infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) suggests that, despite generally similar batted ball numbers, hitters are squaring him up, too. A high IFFB% correlates well with a low batting average on ball in play (BABIP) and vice versa. That ranks him 12th-worst among 102 qualified starting pitchers in this regard.

Lastly, a reality check: Shields plays for the lowly San Diego Padres. Despite his superficial success, he still only has two wins. It's an archaic statistical category, but your league likely depends on it. It doesn't figure to get any better for Shields once he regresses.

Underrated

Kyle Hendricks, CHC
63% owned, via Fleaflicker

Hendricks was, quietly, an excellent pitcher last year, and he has quietly been excellent this as the de facto #4/5 in a loaded Chicago Cubs rotation. To attest: his 3.28 FIP ranks 22nd among all pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched since 2014. That's better than Garrett Richards, Chris Archer, Cole Hamels, and Danny Salazar, to name a few.

Hendricks pairs a decent, albeit not eye-popping, strikeout rate with pinpoint command. I wouldn't say he "pounds the zone," at least not historically. But he has certainly ramped up his first-pitch strike frequency, which now ranks third among all qualified starters behind the illustrious Johnny CUeto and very hittable Phil Hughes. Fortunately, Hendricks does not suffer the ill effects of the latter.

Right now, Hendricks isn't experiencing quite the same success as he did last year in the strikeout department, as pitchers have managed to lay off on his junk pitches more often than last year. But he has sustained an almost-identical swinging strike rate (SwStr%) since 2014, and his current 7.38 K/9 almost perfectly matches his career 7.40 K/9. Perhaps the low 5.27 K/9 in 2014 and the high 8.35 K/9 in 2015 are outliers here, and his strikeout effectiveness has finally normalized.

That would be fine. Hendricks isn't flashy in this regard, and his lack of strikeouts will keep him on the waiver wire for longer than he deserves to be. Right now, he is limiting hard contact with the best of them, inducing the league's 5th-best ground ball rate (58.1 GB%) and third-best infield fly ball rate (17.2 IFFB%), both of which would represent career-bests for him if the season ended today. He gets Dallas Keuchel's results with an entirely different, entirely safer, method of attack.

And, lastly, to bring it back to team quality: Hendricks pitches for the Cubs, arguably the best team in the world right now. His two wins thus far does not accurately represent a reasonable pace we should expect from him -- although let it be acknowledged that, yes, Hendricks has little control over his run support. Still, bet on him finishing the season ahead of Shields (and many other pitchers more owned than Hendricks) in terms of fantasy value.

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Lawlar

Diamondbacks Set to Promote Jordan Lawlar
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Xander Bogaerts

Suffers Foot Fracture, Set to Hit Injured List
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
De'Von Achane

Should be Ready for Week 1
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Alec Burleson

Lands on Injured List With Wrist Inflammation
Emmanuel Clase

Luis L. Ortiz to Remain On Leave for Rest of Season
Kyle Schwarber

has Historic Performance in Rout of Braves
Boston Red Sox

Payton Tolle Expected to Make Debut on Friday
Green Bay Packers

Packers Acquire Micah Parsons, Sign him to Four-Year Extension
Jauan Jennings

Remains Sidelined at Practice
Corey Seager

Undergoing Appendectomy on Thursday
Chris Godwin

to Miss First Month of Season, Possibly More
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering Return to College
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice, Expected to Play in Week 1
Jaylen Wright

Undergoes Surgery, Could be Back "Septemberish"
Tyreek Hill

on Track to Play in Week 1
Kyren Williams

to See Reduced Workload?
Jayden Reed

Dealing with Jones Fracture in Left Foot
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Tyrese Haliburton

Expects to Return in 15 Months
Malik Nabers

Expected to be Full-Go for Week 1
Freddie Freeman

Out Wednesday With Neck Stinger
Alejandro Kirk

Avoids Major Injury, Remains Out on Wednesday
Travis Hunter

Back at Practice, Will be Ready for Week 1
Luis Robert Jr.

Could Miss the Rest of the Season
De'Von Achane

Not Practicing on Wednesday
Trevor Megill

Brewers Place Trevor Megill on Injured List With Flexor Strain
Luis Robert Jr.

Placed on Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Rashee Rice

Accepting Six-Game Suspension to Begin the Year
Kyle Hamilton

Ravens, Kyle Hamilton Finalizing Four-Year Extension
Rashee Rice

NFL Aiming to Place Six-Game Suspension on Rashee Rice
De'Von Achane

Dolphins GM Says De'Von Achane Will be Ready for Week 1
Joe Mixon

Texans GM: "We'll See" if Joe Mixon Plays in 2025
Adam Thielen

Traded to the Vikings
Nick Lodolo

Expected to Return Wednesday Against the Dodgers
Terance Mann

Confident About Having a Big Year in Brooklyn
Zaccharie Risacher

Aims to Improve Ball-Handling Skills
NBA

Pistons And Timberwolves Join Race for Malik Beasley
John Tonje

Signs Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Max Strus

to Miss 3-4 Months After Surgery
Blake Snell

Activated From Paternity List Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Still Expect Micah Parsons to Play in Week 1
Luis Robert Jr.

Exits Early With Hamstring Soreness
Chris Godwin

Passes Physical, Will be Activated From PUP List
Willson Contreras

Issued Six-Game Suspension
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez Placed on Injured List
Nathan Eovaldi

Likely Done for the Season
Yordan Alvarez

Activated and Starting on Tuesday
Oneil Cruz

Back From Injured List
New York Mets

Jonah Tong Promoted to Major Leagues
Nikola Jović

Heat Have High Hopes for Nikola Jovic
Golden State Warriors

Cody Martin Drawing Interest From Warriors
Minnesota Timberwolves

Timberwolves Interested in Reunion With Bones Hyland
Kylor Kelley

Joins Lakers
Colin Castleton

Links Up With Magic
Malik Monk

Kings "Not Actively Engaged" in Trade Discussions Involving Malik Monk
NHL

Jan Rutta Lands in Switzerland
Kirby Dach

Skates on Monday
COL

Tyson Barrie Retires From NHL
Zhang Mingyang

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Johnny Walker

Gets Back In The Win Column
Brian Ortega

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Aljamain Sterling

Proves Too Much For Brian Ortega
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Sergei Pavlovich

Wins Decision At UFC Shanghai
Kevin Borjas

Drops Decision At UFC Shanghai
Sumudaerji

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kiefer Crosbie

Still Winless In The UFC
Taiyilake Nueraji

Gets His First UFC Win
Ryan Blaney

Earns his Second Daytona Cup Series Win
Tyler Reddick

Locks Into the 2025 Playoffs Despite Underwhelming Daytona Performance
Erik Jones

Misses the 2025 Playoffs Despite Top-Five Run at Daytona
Justin Haley

Best Performance of 2025 Falls Short of Victory at Daytona
Kyle Larson

Enters Playoffs As Co-Points Leader
Alex Bowman

Advances to Playoffs Despite Crashing at Daytona
Cole Custer

Finally Shows Signs of Life at Daytona
Daniel Suarez

Lame-Duck Daniel Suarez Delivers Clutch Second-Place Finish

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