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Overrated/Underrated Week 8: Sell Shields, Buy Hendricks

Alex Chamberlain provides two underrated/undervalued fantasy baseball players that could replace overrated/overvalued players on your fantasy teams in Week Eight.

Week 1 (OF/SP) | Week 2 (OF/SP) | Week 3 (SS) | Week 4 (1B) | Week 5 | Week 6 (SP) | Week 7 (2B)

* * *

Comin' atcha hot: this week's daily dose of player ownership discrepancies and misvaluations. Depending on the depth and settings of your league, there's a chance you can get through an entire championship season without making a single trade. Per Fleaflicker's data, there are plenty of quality players on the waiver wire to go around.

This week, I look at starting pitchers. There's a ton of them, and the way their good and bad performances crop up overnight make for volatile fluctations in their value -- sometimes warranted, sometimes not. I'm here to sift through the noise.

 

Overrated

James Shields, SDP
80% owned, via Fleaflicker

I don't know how many times I can start off one of these analyses with, "I just don't get it," but: I just don't get it. Now, in Shields' owners' defense, Shields looks better than last year, as far as his 3.07 ERA is concerned. And his 3.96 xFIP is only a few point worse than last year's mark, which was only a few points worse than his usual marks.

But xFIP may not be the appropriate measure here anymore. xFIP assumes pitchers don't have much control over what happens to the fly balls they allow. I don't know if that's a safe assumption to make with Shields. He has always had a bit of a home run problem, and it has been especially bad the last two years. The 4.09 FIP is something closer to what we should expect from him. He's currently benefitting from a nice 83.8% stand rate, or left-on-base percentage (LOB%), helping suppress his ERA.

He's somehow managing the second-best ERA of his career despite what are, by far, his worst-ever peripherals. He lost last year's strikeouts while sustaining the unsightly walk rate (BB%). He's still living outside the zone -- his 42.3% zone percentage (Zone%) is slightly better than last year's mark, according to PITCHf/x, but still way worse than his peak. This isn't a problem when hitters are chasing bad pitches. But they're not; in fact, hitters are chasing Shields' bad pitches less often than ever before.

Meanwhile, Shields' infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) suggests that, despite generally similar batted ball numbers, hitters are squaring him up, too. A high IFFB% correlates well with a low batting average on ball in play (BABIP) and vice versa. That ranks him 12th-worst among 102 qualified starting pitchers in this regard.

Lastly, a reality check: Shields plays for the lowly San Diego Padres. Despite his superficial success, he still only has two wins. It's an archaic statistical category, but your league likely depends on it. It doesn't figure to get any better for Shields once he regresses.

Underrated

Kyle Hendricks, CHC
63% owned, via Fleaflicker

Hendricks was, quietly, an excellent pitcher last year, and he has quietly been excellent this as the de facto #4/5 in a loaded Chicago Cubs rotation. To attest: his 3.28 FIP ranks 22nd among all pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched since 2014. That's better than Garrett Richards, Chris Archer, Cole Hamels, and Danny Salazar, to name a few.

Hendricks pairs a decent, albeit not eye-popping, strikeout rate with pinpoint command. I wouldn't say he "pounds the zone," at least not historically. But he has certainly ramped up his first-pitch strike frequency, which now ranks third among all qualified starters behind the illustrious Johnny CUeto and very hittable Phil Hughes. Fortunately, Hendricks does not suffer the ill effects of the latter.

Right now, Hendricks isn't experiencing quite the same success as he did last year in the strikeout department, as pitchers have managed to lay off on his junk pitches more often than last year. But he has sustained an almost-identical swinging strike rate (SwStr%) since 2014, and his current 7.38 K/9 almost perfectly matches his career 7.40 K/9. Perhaps the low 5.27 K/9 in 2014 and the high 8.35 K/9 in 2015 are outliers here, and his strikeout effectiveness has finally normalized.

That would be fine. Hendricks isn't flashy in this regard, and his lack of strikeouts will keep him on the waiver wire for longer than he deserves to be. Right now, he is limiting hard contact with the best of them, inducing the league's 5th-best ground ball rate (58.1 GB%) and third-best infield fly ball rate (17.2 IFFB%), both of which would represent career-bests for him if the season ended today. He gets Dallas Keuchel's results with an entirely different, entirely safer, method of attack.

And, lastly, to bring it back to team quality: Hendricks pitches for the Cubs, arguably the best team in the world right now. His two wins thus far does not accurately represent a reasonable pace we should expect from him -- although let it be acknowledged that, yes, Hendricks has little control over his run support. Still, bet on him finishing the season ahead of Shields (and many other pitchers more owned than Hendricks) in terms of fantasy value.

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Braden Schneider

Limited in Training Camp
Lars Eller

Recovering From Abdominal Procedure
Nick Jensen

in Danger of Missing Start of Season
Brandon Montour

to Miss Two Weeks After Ankle Surgery
Gabriel Landeskog

a "Full Go" for the Season
Samuel Girard

Avalanche Hope to Have Samuel Girard Available for Start of Season
Mackenzie Blackwood

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Tuch

Day-to-Day With Undisclosed Injury
Jordan Greenway

to Sit Out Training Camp
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Considered Day-to-Day
Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

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