RADIO
Week 14 of the NFL season is in the books, and what a week it was. First, we saw the Chiefs bounce back in a big way beating the Raiders by almost 40 points. Next, the Seahawks put together their second straight strong week, but it was the Texans, so we will have to see how Russell Wilson and company fare this week against the Rams. Next, in typical Chargers fashion, we saw them bounce back against the Giants, but can they do it for multiple weeks in a row? Lastly, we saw the 49ers-Bengals and the Bills-Bucs both have fantastic overtime battles. It was another wild week in the NFL, and Week 15 should be no different.
For Week 15, we will stick with the usual cash gameplan of looking for a solid floor and going from there, especially when it comes to value plays. Value this week is quite spread out. The popular moves will be paying up at quarterback for the likes of Kyler Murray and others. However, there is a good chance that most will also pay up at the tight end and wide receiver. There is an insane amount of mid-priced value at running back and, as always, some decent value at wide receiver. Pay close attention to the ever-changing news as COVID is running rampant, and even more, the value will likely open as the weekend gets closer to lock.
This article will look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are somewhat swinging for the fences. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, passing attempts, targets or carries. So, let's look at the cash value plays for Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season.
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays - Week 15 Cash Games
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. TEN | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,600
Big Ben season is in full force as he has been a fantasy stud in recent weeks and has another solid matchup this week versus the Titans. Over the last four games, he has thrown at least 236 yards with nine touchdowns and 19 or more fantasy points in three of the four games. He has been a steady producer who has done it in close games and even with late garbage time. This week it should be another close one versus the Titans.
He will take on a Titans team that ranks 26th on the season versus opposing quarterbacks. They allow an average of 269 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, and over 20 fantasy points. Ben has been targeting Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris, and Pat Freiermuth a ton, which should not change this week. Ben may not be the most comfortable play and for the most part, you will be paying up at quarterback in cash, but you can use Ben if choosing to save some money and pay up elsewhere.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NYJ | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,400
It's Tua time once again. He was playing some great football over the last month and now coming off a bye week should pick up where he left off. Over his previous three games, he has completed at least 27 passes with a completion percentage of 73% or better. Tua also has five total touchdowns over the three-game stretch and has 18 or more fantasy points in two of three games. It is also very nice that he again takes on the Jets, who he torched just three games ago.
He will take on this Jets defense that ranks 24th over the last four games versus opposing defense, which should not get any better this week. They allow an average of 1.5 passing touchdowns and 20 fantasy points per game over the stretch. It is also an excellent matchup for Tua as the Dolphins are 10 point favorites with an implied team total of 26. The Dolphins should often be scoring and, more importantly, scoring in the passing game as nearly every running back on the roster is out with COVID.
Running Back DFS Value Plays - Week 15 Cash Games
Javonte Williams, DEN vs. CIN | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,000
So many of us have been screaming for Javonte to take over the Broncos' backfield, and over the last three weeks, we have seen him go nuts with the right opportunities. He even went nuts last week as he shared the role with Melvin Gordon, who is hurt again and is expected to miss this weekend. Over the previous three games, Williams had 16 or more touches in each game with at least one touchdown and over 20 fantasy points.
It's already awesome that Williams should be the lead back with Gordon hurt, but it's also a great matchup versus the Bengals. A Bengals defense that ranks 22nd on the year versus opposing running backs. They are allowing most of the damage in the passing games to backs which Williams can excel in and the Bengals are allowing an average of 25 fantasy points per game. This week, the Broncos are nearly field-goal favorites with a 23.5 point implied team total. Look for another heavy workload for Williams, which will equate to cash game goodness.
Sony Michel, LAR vs. SEA | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,800
This play is all about Darrel Henderson missing another game due to COVID. With Michel getting the start over the last two games, he has balled out with 20+ carries and 79+ yards in each game. The touches bring quite an outstanding cash game floor. If he finds the end zone, then he could put up a massive cash game value, but for now, the floor is excellent. The matchup versus the Seahawks is also outstanding.
Michel will face a Seahawks defense that ranks 28th over the last four games versus opposing running backs and 31st on the season. Over the previous four games, they allow an average of 85 rushing yards, over eight receptions, and nearly 30 fantasy points per game. The Seahawks defense is getting torched in all aspects of the game, and it should be no different this week. The Rams are seven-point favorites with an implied team total of 27. Those numbers could climb even more with Tyler Lockett and Alex Collins going on the COVID IL. Look for the Rams to dominate and get Michel plenty of touches for that cash game goodness.
James Robinson, JAX vs. HOU | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,300
I liked Robinson going into this week before the big news, but now that the massive, worthless distraction known as Urban Meyer is gone, I am all in. Over the last two weeks, Robinson has only had 14 carries but was getting the lead back workload in the previous weeks. In those games, he was continuously putting up double-digit fantasy point games. That should return this week in a juicy matchup versus the Texans.
Robinson will take on a Texans' defense that ranks 30th over the last four games versus opposing backs. In the previous two games alone, they have let Jonathan Taylor and Rashaad Penny run wild on them. Over the last four games, they allow an average of 150 rushing yards per game and 1.5 touchdowns and over 32 fantasy points. If the Jags want to cover the 3.5 point spread, they will need to utilize their lead back. Lastly, it helps that Carlos Hyde will be out, which makes one less distraction for the coaches. Just feed Robinson.
Keep an eye on- Antonio Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, AJ Dillon, Rashaad Penny, and a few more as there is a ton of value at running back this week and more that may open due to all the COVID issues around the league.
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays - Week 15 Cash Games
DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800
This is quite simple; IT'S DEVANTE PARKER CHALK WEEK!!!! A significant part of cash games is following the chalk, and Parker will be chalk: exquisite chalk. It was already an excellent matchup for Parker, but with the news of Jaylen Waddle going on the COVID IL, it became a fantastic matchup. Parker was targeted five times last game and seven or more times in every other game he has played this season. The Jets defense is banged up and missing players, so look for Parker to get fed early and often for the Dolphins. CASH GAME LOCK!!!
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. AZ | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,900
There are many options at receiver this week, and St. Brown makes for quite the play. Some may prefer him in tournaments, but his floor and matchup bode well for cash this week. Over the last two games, St. Brown has made 18 receptions on 24 targets, which should continue this week. Jared Goff's other main target, T.J. Hockenson, is now out for the season, leaving St. Brown as the man receiving threat for the Lions.
St. Brown will take on a Cardinals defense that ranks 24th over the last four games versus opposing wide receivers. They have allowed an average of 1.5 receiving touchdowns and 38 total fantasy points among opposing receivers. It also bodes well for St. Brown as the Lions are 13.5 point underdogs and will be throwing a ton to try and keep it close. Garbage time still counts in fantasy, and there should be plenty of it for St. Brown.
A.J. Green, AZ at DET | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,700
I wrote Green up in this article earlier this season, and people thought I was crazy, but it worked out. I like him even more this week. With DeAndre Hopkins now out for the season, Green will get a full workload in the Cardinals receiving game. He was targeted ten times last week, catching seven of them, on his way to 20 fantasy points. Green has scored double-digit fantasy points in seven of 12 games this year and should find his way to another quality performance in what should be a Cardinals route in Detroit.
Tight End DFS Value Plays - Week 15 Cash Games
Brevin Jordan, HOU at JAX | DK: $2,800, FD: $4,900
More and more "cheap" tight ends may be coming into play due to more COVID positives around the NFL, but for now, I am rolling with Jordan as my value tight end this week. He is coming off a monster game last week where he caught four of his seven targets to 12 fantasy points. Jordan has been targeted three or more times in three straight weeks, has found the end zone in two of the three weeks, and has scored double-digit fantasy points in those two games. Jordan is third on the team in targets over the last three games, second with nine receptions, and tied with Nico Collins for the most red-zone targets. Jordan has carved out an excellent role in this Texan offense, and he should be in play again this week versus the Jaguars.
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