RADIO
There have been numerous instances over my years of playing/writing about DFS where I have made a strong recommendation in my writing and eventually gotten off the idea by the time Sunday came around. Usually, this is because the play was a volatile/uninspiring play in the first place -- but that’s the beauty of DFS tournaments. Embracing those cringe-worthy plays can make all the difference.
Last week, I wrote up Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney… and proceeded not to play them in DFS. I also landed on Joe Mixon in one lineup… and still didn’t cash in a tournament. So that’s how Week 9 went for your boy. But we return to the laptop for some research and DFS prognostication nonetheless.
Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Tua Tagovailoa ($6700) + Tyreek Hill ($9100) OR Jaylen Waddle ($7600)
Each season, some teams are just head and shoulders above the rest of the available options in terms of fantasy friendliness. The Miami Dolphins are one of those teams in 2022. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both rank top-five in receiving yards midway through the season. The Dolphins are pushing the ball down the field and putting up points, a recipe for fantasy frenzies.
Their Week 10 opponent is the Cleveland Browns. Both teams are bottom 10 in yards per pass attempt allowed thus far. Miami has amassed a league-leading mark of 36 completions of 20+ yards (tied with Kansas City) and they rank third in 40+ yard completions (eight). Cleveland’s injury report features some notable names, including CBs Denzel Ward (concussion), Martin Emerson (illness), Greg Newsome (oblique), and LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (knee).
A banged-up Browns defense combined with Mike McDaniel’s aggressive, progressive, and explosive offensive attack is not a welcome sign for Kevin Stefanski’s club. Additionally, the Browns and Dolphins rank fourth and fifth, respectively, in total yards per game offensively, so points should be plentiful here.
The other side has plenty of firepower to respond adequately, starting with Amari Cooper -- who has 20 or more DraftKings points in half of his games this year. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have shown game-breaking speed and playmaking ability in the past. And Cleveland could get David Njoku back in this spot as well. Fire this game up. You won’t be disappointed.
Preferred bring-back: Amari Cooper ($6500)
Leverage piece: Nick Chubb ($8100)
Combining the aforementioned Chubb with some mistakes from Tua is about the only way this game could fail from a fantasy-scoring perspective. If Hill and Waddle are expected to draw some ownership this weekend, the best path to them failing would be Cleveland feeding Chubb 25-30 carries and controlling the game script. This narrative is unlikely to play out, but it’s not impossible.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes ($8500) + Travis Kelce ($8500) OR JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7000)
Kansas City is positioned as a 9.5-point favorite over Jacksonville this weekend. Many times, when people see a big spread, they are afraid of the blowout factor and a rush-friendly game script. But Patrick Mahomes and his bevy of weapons are known for throwing the ball -- even when games get out of hand. It’s extremely likely a Chiefs pass-catcher finds himself in the winning lineup this weekend.
Andy Reid’s team leads the league in passing yards per game (311.8) and points per game (30.4) while ranking second in total yards per outing. The Jaguars have yielded the eighth-most completions and eighth-most passing yards in 2022. Davante Adams showed last week exactly where this defense is exploitable (even if Josh McDaniels failed to stick with it in the second half).
The Jags have been surprisingly stout defending tight ends in 2022, surrendering just one touchdown to the position, and they are one of five teams that have allowed 30 or fewer receptions to tight ends. But let’s be serious: That means absolutely nothing when talking about Travis Kelce, their next opponent. Along with that, the Jags have faced Foster Moreau, Greg Dulcich, Daniel Bellinger, and Kylen Granson over the last four weeks.
Jacksonville has been vulnerable to strong wide receiver options, so this could be a big spot for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has notched at least 13.8 FanDuel points in three consecutive games. He’s seen eight or more targets in six-of-eight games this season. Against a Jags team that has given up the third-most touchdown receptions to receivers (11), JuJu’s a solid Week 10 bet.
Preferred bring-back: Christian Kirk ($6800)
Leverage piece: Mecole Hardman ($6000)
All of the notes regarding JuJu also apply to Mecole Hardman. Though he’s dealing with an abdominal injury and appears on the Chiefs’ injury report, the fourth-year pro has been heavily involved in recent weeks for Reid’s offense. Would it shock you if I told you Hardman has seen SEVEN red-zone targets over the last four games? Though he’s underwhelmed for much of his career, the Chiefs might finally be carving out a role for Hardman.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Justin Fields ($6500) + Darnell Mooney ($5500) AND/OR Chase Claypool ($4800)
I hate when I don’t take my own advice. As stated before, I wrote up Fields in Week 9 -- only to not play him and miss out on his 45-DraftKings-point performance and his single-game quarterback NFL rushing record. Ouch.
What is there left to say about Detroit’s defense? They’re putrid (and that might be underselling it). Along with how poor they are against the pass (a league-worst 7.8 yards per attempt allowed and just 12 sacks), they are equally bad against rushing QBs -- an area that Fields is built to exploit; Detroit has seen the fifth-most rushing attempts by QBs (44) and allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to signal-callers.
In a matchup that is shaping up to make Fields comfortable in the pocket, his passing upside is higher than usual here. His top weapons, Darnell Mooney and now Chase Claypool, are very cheap (20th and 31st in terms of price among WRs on DK). Both are capable of breaking big plays, and the matchup is conducive to that. Believe in these two young receivers in this spot.
Claypool ran just 15 routes in his debut with Chicago. However, he drew a whopping six targets on those opportunities, and his involvement will only grow the more familiar he becomes with the playbook. We always want to be early on ceiling performances; I think this might be one of those rare opportunities with the 24-year-old.
Preferred bring-back: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6900)
Leverage piece: Khalil Herbert ($5900)
Only the Bears themselves have allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Lions (13). Khalil Herbert has four 20+ yard carries on just 98 carries this season, compared to David Montgomery’s one on 106 carries. Montgomery out-snapped Herbert percentage-wise 70 to 30 in Week 9, so Herbert is a very risky play. But he’s capable of ripping off big plays in limited opportunities.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett ($7000) + Amari Cooper ($7800) AND/OR Harrison Bryant ($4800)
The passing attack for Cleveland is set up fairly well in Week 10, with the Dolphins allowing a 68.5% completion percentage. Miami has also yielded the fourth-most completions (215) of any team. Cleveland is one of the more run-centric teams in football, but they may have no choice but to play from behind here against Mike McDaniel’s high-powered offense.
Jacoby Brissett, the career journeyman backup, has totaled 258 or more passing yards in three straight games. The Dolphins lead the league in FanDuel points allowed per game to the QB position, so Cleveland’s QB is set up to succeed here. As mentioned earlier, his top target, Amari Cooper, is having a heck of a year -- and the game script could be conducive to more dropbacks.
David Njoku was a DNP on the injury report once again on Thursday, and he ranks second on the Browns with eight red-zone targets behind only Cooper’s 10. The 28-year-old WR1 could be force-fed the ball -- especially if Cleveland falls behind big early. Harrison Bryant’s involvement did not improve with Njoku out last week (just 12 routes run and zero targets), but going back to the well if Njoku sits again isn’t the worst dart throw.
Preferred bring-back: Tyreek Hill ($9000)
Leverage piece: Donovan Peoples-Jones ($5700)
Here are some stat lines for receivers against the Dolphins in recent weeks: Darnell Mooney (7/41/1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (7/69/0), Kalif Raymond (3/76/0), and George Pickens (6/61/1). None of these stat lines are insanely eye-popping, but they’re certainly solid. Donovan Peoples-Jones has played 87.1% of the snaps for the Browns this season, and he’s tallied double-digit PPR points in 5-of-8 games.
DPJ has hauled in a catch of 37 yards or longer in four games this year. With elevated passing volume expected for the Browns, the former Michigan Wolverine could see additional deep targets in this contest -- increasing his DFS upside.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Andy Dalton ($5500) + Chris Olave ($6800)
Pittsburgh has been absolutely bullied by high-quality receivers in 2022, and Olave fits the bill. Gabe Davis (3/171/2), A.J. Brown (6/156/3), Jaylen Waddle (4/88/0), and Tyreek Hill (7/72/0) have had their way against Mike Tomlin’s group in recent weeks, and Olave is next in line.
The Steelers are allowing the second-most yards per attempt of any team (7.5). With Michael Thomas shutting it down early to have surgery, and Jarvis Landry not quite right with an ankle injury (he’s at least practicing in a limited fashion again), Olave is the undisputed No. 1 receiving option in Dennis Allen’s offense. The rookie has snared at least five catches in every game since Week 1.
The once-vaunted Pittsburgh defense is serving up top-three marks for receiving yards, touchdowns, and DraftKings points to opposing wideouts. Defensive end T.J. Watt is slated to return -- which should be a boost for the Steelers’ pass rush -- but Olave is winning all over the field, not just deep. It’d be shocking to see him post less than 15 DraftKings points.
Preferred bring-back: George Pickens ($5000)
Leverage piece: Najee Harris ($5500)
Talk about a hold-your-nose kind of play. Najee Harris is currently the RB26 in PPR for 2022. He has not yet posted a game averaging more than 4.1 yards per carry. This is the same guy that was a consensus first-round pick during draft season. So why is a player that has underwhelmed so badly among my recommendations for Week 10? Hear me out.
Because the matchup is surprisingly quite good for Harris. New Orleans has historically been a strong run defense, but that has not been the case this season; the Saints have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to backs, and they are fresh off getting run all over by Kenyan Drake (24/93/2). Opponents have also dropped 27 or more points against New Orleans’ defense in five of the last six weeks. Nobody will click Najee in Week 10.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Matthew Stafford ($6700) + Cooper Kupp ($9200) AND/OR Allen Robinson ($5700), Tyler Higbee ($6000)
Poor Budda Baker and his passionate speech in the Cardinals’ locker room. I would like to give a similar pep talk to this Rams offense, especially after what they showed all of last year as one of fantasy’s top shows to watch each week. This year, Los Angeles is averaging nearly 11 points less than they did a season ago on their way to a Super Bowl victory. But a date with Budda and Arizona could be the elixir that Matthew Stafford and Co. need to revive their offense.
Kliff Kingsbury’s defense has conceded the third-most completions (223) and third-highest completion percentage (68.6%), and they’re one of just five teams to have allowed at least 16 passing touchdowns. L.A.’s offensive line has been putrid, but Arizona also boasts a bottom-10 pass rush with just 16 sacks.
Cooper Kupp has been the only consistent piece for the Rams’ offense all year, and the Cardinals don’t possess anyone that can stop him here. After that, Allen Robinson and Tyler Higbee are shaky bets. Though A-Rob has played over 91% of the offensive snaps for Sean McVay’s club, he has yet to post a game of at least 18 PPR points -- and has just two above 10.
Preferred bring-back: Rondale Moore ($5800)
Leverage piece: Van Jefferson ($5100)
With Los Angeles struggling to find a secondary contributor to help Kupp, Van Jefferson could be turned to in this advantageous spot. He hasn’t recorded a single catch -- let alone a fantasy point -- since his return from injury, but the underlying metrics looked good in Week 9. He saw five targets for 142 air yards. That means the Rams were looking his way -- deep down the field.
At a pretty solid price tag in a game that should feature plenty of possessions, I can think of worse dart throws than Van.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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