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Joe Williams' MLB betting picks for 8/10/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Saturday, Aug. 10th edition of RotoBaller's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
- Last Tuesday's Picks: 0-3 (0.0%) -370
- Year-to-Date: 31-21 (59.6%) +852
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to contact me on Twitter @JoeWilliamsVI if you have any questions or if you'd like additional content and occasional gambling notes and tidbits.
Here are my picks for Saturday, Aug. 10th. Be sure to check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Atlanta Braves (-230) @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 8.5
The Braves and Marlins lock horns in Miami, and it's a battle between a pair of All-Star right-handed starters.
RHP Mike Soroka has managed a 10-2 record, 2.45 ERA and .287 opponent on-base percentage with 97 strikeouts across 121 innings. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but his movement has been tremendous this season. The Braves have posted a 13-0 record across Soroka's past 13 starts against teams with a losing record, and they're a perfect 9-0 in his past nine road assignments against teams with a losing overall mark. They're also 11-1 in his past 12 starts against National League East foes, while going 6-1 in his past seven overall away from home. The Braves have been victorious in 18 of his past 23 starts overall, too.
For the Marlins, it has been the complete opposite. While Miami has won seven of their past 10 at home against teams with a winning overall record, they're just 1-6 in the past seven overall while going 1-4 in the past five at home against winning teams. They have also managed just two victories in the past 13 tries against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or under. The Marlins have won just seven of RHP Sandy Alcantara's past 26 starts, they're 1-6 in his past seven at home and they're 0-4 in the past four tries by Alcantara against divisional foes.
My Pick: Braves (-1.5, -130)
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-105)
O/U: 8
The splits have been stark for LHP Patrick Corbin of the Nationals this season. He has managed a sparkling 6-1 record with a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP across 75 2/3 innings at home. Unfortunately this start is on the road, where he is a dismal 3-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, and he has .339 opponent OBP as opposed to a .239 OBP at home. He has also allowed 12 homers in 66 innings on the road as opposed to just three long balls allowed at Nationals Park across 75 2/3 innings.
Roll with the Mets in this one, as they're inexplicably short 'dogs at Citi Field. They look to carry over the momentum after picking up a stunning walk-off victory with four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning on Friday.
New York has posted four wins in the past five outings by RHP Noah Syndergaard at home, while going 7-2 in his past nine assignments overall. They're also 20-7 in the past 27 games overall, 9-2 in the past 11 at home vs. LHP and 6-0 in the past six games inside the division. They're also 5-1 in Syndergaard's past six starts against divisional foes.
My Pick: Mets (-105)
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (-140)
O/U: 10
The Indians have pulled square with the Twins after winning the first two games of their four-game set at Target Field. They send RHP Adam Plutko to the mound looking to move into first place, while the Twins counter with RHP Jake Odorizzi, trying to hang onto the top spot.
In this game, play the total, which is rather high despite plenty of over results for both lately. The over is 4-0 in Cleveland's past four road games, and 6-2-1 in the past nine on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. However, the under is 5-1 in the past six overall, while going 4-1 in the past five vs. RHP. The under is also 4-1 in the past five starts by Plutko, and 6-2 in his past eight against teams with a winning record and 5-2 in his past seven inside the AL Central.
For the Twins, the over is 9-2 in the past 11 at home, including 7-1 in the past eight at home against winning teams. The over is also 7-2 in the past nine games overall for Minnesota. However, the under is 4-1 in the past five starts by Odorizzi, 12-3-1 in his past 16 starts inside the division and 11-4-1 in his past 16 starts at Target Field. The under is also a perfect 5-0 in Odorizzi's past five assignments against the Indians. The under is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings at Target Field, while going 14-6-1 in the past 21 meetings overall in this series.
My Pick: Under 10 (+100)
