LIV Golf Betting Picks- 2025 Adelaide

February 11, 2025

Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for 2025 Adelaide event at The Grange Golf Club. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.

The LIV Golf League returns to Australia this week for its LIV Adelaide event at The Grange Golf Club. Last year over 94,000 fans attended the event, making it LIV’s highest attended event of the season. It’s fair to say LIV Adelaide has become LIV’s flagship event with the rowdy Australian crowd and party atmosphere. The tournament should be a must-see this weekend if you are a fan of golf.

Talor Gooch took home the inaugural LIV Adelaide event in 2023, shooting -19. Gooch opened with consecutive -10 rounds of 62, before struggling a bit in round three but still doing enough to win the tournament. Last season Brendan Steele won at -18. There are plenty of low scores out there at this course, so I expect that the winner will once again reach the high-teens under par.

The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the new broadcast network Fox Sports. Due to the tournament being played in Australia, the start time for round one will be 9:15pm EST. The tournament can also be viewed through LIV Golf plus and the LIV Golf App.

LIV Golf Adelaide Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

The Grange Golf Club will play as a 7039-yard par-72. The Grange has two courses (East and West) and both will be used as a composite layout for LIV Adelaide. According to LIV Golf’s Mike McAllister, holes 9-10 and 12-18 of the East Course will provide holes 1-9 of the composite course. The back nine of the West Course will be used for holes 10-18 this week. Former LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman was involved in the redesign for the East Course in 2012 and Mike Clayton was responsible for the redesign of the West Course.

Hole number 12, known as the Watering Hole, will return this year as the party hole. The Watering Hole has been a huge success over the past two years. The party atmosphere is similar to hole number 16 at TPC Scottsdale. Chase Koepka made a hole in one at this hole in LIV’s inaugural LIV Adelaide event and the crowd reaction was wild. We’ll be sure to see some more fireworks here this week.

As seen on the scorecard, The Grange Golf Club is not a long course. The tree lined fairways and strategically placed bunkering throughout are the main defenses of the course. However, the lack of distance allows players to club down off the tee and put more emphasis on accuracy. Birdies are certainly going to be out there this week for players. Last year, thirteen players finished at -14 or better on the week.

To have a chance to win this week, players are going to have to make birdies. It’s one of those events where you need multiple low rounds to even have a shot at winning on Sunday. While accuracy is more important than distance this week, it is important to understand that simply looking at fairway percentage could be misleading. Many guys will be clubbing down off the tee, leading to a higher percentage of fairways hit.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Adelaide

Below are the current odds of winning, as presented by BetUS. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change.

LIV Golf Betting Strategy & Selections - Adelaide

Dean Burmester +2600 (FanDuel)

First things first, shoutout to my guy Blake Tirlia, who put this thought into my mind Monday morning. It makes a ton of sense and frankly I’m surprised he’s available at these odds. Burmester had a great 2024 LIV season, highlighted by his win at Doral. He had three additional T8 or better LIV finishes as well. He’s won four times worldwide since November 2023 and registered top 20 finishes at the PGA Championship and Open Championship last year.

Final round scores for the team in Riyadh.#golf #livgolfriyadh pic.twitter.com/8KYQwB5Nxd

— Stinger GC (@stingergc_) February 9, 2025

On top of the South African establishing himself a legitimate threat any time he tees it up, he’s been fantastic at this event. In 2023 he finished T7 and last year he finished T3. He was second in total birdies at this event last year despite hitting just 61% of his fairways. In six rounds at the Grange Golf Club, Burmester has shot 67 or better in five of them. He is by all definitions, a horse for the course.

Burmy is coming off a T4 finish last week under the lights in Riyadh. He ranked T3 on the week in GIR percentage and T9 in total birdies. I see no reason to think that Burmester won’t continue that success this week at a course he’s completely dominated the past two seasons.

Patrick Reed +3300 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed let me down last week. That said, I still believe everything I said about the current state of his game to be true. He’s played nine events since the close of the 2024 LIV season, with multiple top ten finishes, including a win in Hong Kong. I am looking for Reed to get back on track this week at a course he’s played well at.

Patrick Reed shot rounds of 65, 68, 59 and 66 to win the LINK Hong Kong Open by 3 shots from defending champion, Ben Campbell at 22 under. It’s his first win since the 2021 Farmers, first worldwide since joining LIV Golf and first time ever shooting 59 in a tour event. What a… pic.twitter.com/scQ3tJMheT

— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) November 24, 2024

Reed finished T3 at this event in 2023, despite a first round 71. Last year’s T22 finish was a bit of the same, with one bad round doing him in. Reed was in the mix to start Sunday but fired a final round 72 to stumble all the way outside the top 20 on the leaderboard. If Reed can just get rid of that one bad round, he’s proven to be able to go low at this event. Four of Reed’s six rounds at the Grange Golf Club have been 65,65,66 and 67.

The 4Aces star is also no stranger to playing in rowdy atmospheres. Reed has been dubbed “Captain America” for his performance at the Ryder Cup and has no problem mixing it up with European fans. If anything, I expect Reed to thrive off the energy this week.

Dustin Johnson +6500 (FanDuel)

Full disclosure, this is probably a really bad bet. There’s no statistical reason to back DJ coming off a week that he was simply horrible. I just can’t shake seeing Dustin Johnson at this number. The talent is too great to not take a shot at it.

Dustin Johnson and TaylorMade have ended their lengthy run.

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 10, 2025

Despite the negative above, I’m going to attempt to spin zone this into a somewhat reasonable decision. DJ’s problem has been for quite some time, the driver. Mike McAllister of LIV Golf wrote an article prior to the start of the LIV season about Dustin Johnson and the problem with his game last year. In the article he stated that the former world number one broke his driver after the Las Vegas event and hasn’t been able to figure it out off the tee since.

The good news is you don’t really need to rely on the driver to get around the Grange Golf Club. Brendan Steele won here last year finishing the week T48 in driving distance, Talor Gooch 41^st on his way to victory in 2023. I’m partly convinced that Johnson has had zero chance at winning simply because of how bad he’s been off the tee. He doesn’t give himself enough birdie looks and puts himself into far too many bogey positions. If he can club down here and play out of the fairway this week, maybe the rest will fall into place.

Graeme McDowell +27000 (FanDuel)

This is complete Hail Mary but at this number, why not? We have a course that doesn’t require distance off the tee and focuses on good approach play and the ability to make birdies. McDowell finished T5 last week in GIR percentage, hitting 83%. Unfortunately, the putter didn’t cooperate for G-Mac and his good iron play was not awarded on the overall leaderboard.

Graeme McDowell suggests simple way to end pro golf's slow play problem https://t.co/LBTgvb6q1K

— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) February 11, 2025

At 270-1 in a 54-man field, I’ll take a stab on someone who was top five last week in GIR percentage. It is a key stat to perform well in this week if players want to have any chance at winning.

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