X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Jordan Howard - This Year's Todd Gurley?

Is Bears running back Jordan Howard poised for a third-year breakout in 2018 like Rams RB Todd Gurley last year? Jason Katz compares the two eerily similar situations to determine where Howard should be valued in fantasy football drafts.

Let's not beat around the bush here. You've for sure heard about the parallels between the 2018 Bears and the 2017 Rams, of which there are many. The Rams brought in a new, offensive-minded head coach in Sean McVay to replace one of the worst head coaches in NFL history, Jeff Fisher. The Bears brought in a new, offensive-minded head coach in Matt Nagy to replace one of the worst head coaches in NFL history, John Fox.

The Rams had a sophomore QB that struggled as a rookie, leading many to question his selection as the first QB off the board in the draft. The Bears have a sophomore QB that struggled as a rookie, leading many to question his selection as the first QB off the board in the draft. The Rams brought in some new offensive weapons in Robert Woods via free agency, Sammy Watkins via trade, and Cooper Kupp via the draft. The Bears brought in some new offensive weapons in Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton in free agency and Anthony Miller via the draft.

After struggling in his second season, Todd Gurley exploded in his third year under the new regime en route to an overall RB1 finish. No one is suggesting Jordan Howard has that sort of upside. But Howard has been immensely productive over his first two seasons, rushing for 2,435 yards and 15 touchdowns despite playing for a bad offense. I do think Howard is a much better football player than he gets credit for. Unfortunately, being good at football and good at fantasy football are two very different things. Is Jordan Howard this year's Todd Gurley?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Gurley 2.0?

I won't leave you in suspense. The answer is no. Now let me tell you why.

The first and most obvious reason Howard has no chance at coming even close to Gurley's 2017 production is Howard's hands of stone. The man cannot catch passes. It's truly astounding to watch. He looks like he has flippers for hands. Howard dropped a whopping 18.8% of his targets last season. Without the ability to bolster his fantasy output via receptions, Howard's weekly production is too reliant on rushing yards and touchdowns.

Another important distinction between Howard and Gurley is the secondary running back in each offense. Gurley had no one behind him. The only time Gurley came off the field was when he was too tired to continue. He posted an 83.9% snap share and led the league with 15 goal line carries. Howard only saw a 61.5% snap share and received just five goal-line carries. Howard's problem with volume stems from Tarik Cohen, who is a dynamic satellite back capable of lining up as a receiver. Coach Nagy has described Cohen as a mini Tyreek Hill and seems intent on using Cohen all over the formation. While Cohen will certainly be on the field at the same time as Howard, he will also take snaps away from Howard, particularly when the team is throwing.

And that's the thing with the 2018 Bears - they look poised to be a much more pass-oriented offense. Howard is going to heavily dependent upon game script and situation. Perhaps the Bears are much improved and he does see a lot of carries with the team leading in the second half. Even so, there are scenarios where could find himself on the bench whereas for Gurley, there were none.

Finally, we have the talent. Gurley is just flat-out a better player. Even if you swapped out Gurley and Howard and gave Howard all of the work Gurley gets in the same situation, Howard simply isn't capable of producing at the same level.

The Bears should be a better team and I am a believer in Mitch Trubisky. Howard may very well be a back-end RB1 this season and if the Bears take a step forward like the 2017 Rams, Howard has 15-TD upside, but he does not have top-five upside and is not this year's Todd Gurley.

All of this is not to say Jordan Howard should be off your draft boards. He's severely undervalued as a runner. Unless you think Tarik Cohen will do to him what he did to Jeremy Langford, you should have no concerns about Howard's role on the offense. You're going to see him on first and second down and at the goal line. He could be like a poor man's version of 2013 Marshawn Lynch. In standard leagues, feel free to grab around around the 2/3 turn. Any later than that is a value. In PPR leagues, even though the official Rotoballer Rankings have him just one spot lower at the RB15, I would be much more hesitant, but that's largely because I simply have no interest in RBs that don't catch passes in PPR formats. He would have to fall to the late third/early fourth round before I'd consider it worth it.

 

More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF