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Andrew Ericksen analyzes Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran as a sleeper for the 2022 Fantasy Baseball season.
While Marcelo Mayer, Triston Casas, and Nick Yorke are regularly ranked as the top-hitting prospects for the Boston Red Sox, there’s only one hitting prospect on the team who warrants your attention going into drafts for season-long leagues this year, and that’s 25-year-old outfielder Jarren Duran.
Casas will likely find his way to the majors at some point this year, while the 19-year-old middle infielders, Mayer and Yorke, could be another year away, if not more. Meanwhile, there’s a good chance the Red Sox open the season with Duran in their starting lineup. Or at least as a primary bench bat.
Duran torched Triple-A last year and wound up getting the call to make his MLB debut in mid-July. He went on to disappoint over 33 games in the majors, slashing .215/.241/.336 with two home runs. However, fantasy managers shouldn’t be discouraged by that small sample size. Duran has the ability to be a contributor in a number of stats for fantasy managers as soon as this year and if things all go right for him, he could be one of the biggest steals at the end of your draft.
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Power Breakout
Prior to the COVID-shortened 2020 season, there was already plenty to like about Duran. As a 21-year-old at Low-A and Single-A in 2018, he slashed .357/.393/.516, and in 2019, at High-A and Double-A, he slashed .303/.367/.408.
However, there was some concern in the power department. He only hit a total of eight home runs across the 199 minor league games he played in 2018 and 2019.
Then, in 2020, the Red Sox organization made some tweaks to Duran’s swing, helping him add more strength and lift to it. He was making big strides at the team’s alternate site in 2020, then he put his new approach on display while playing in Puerto Rico’s LBPRC during the 2020-21 season. He was named MVP of the LBPRC Final Series after hitting 5-for-15 and blasting two home runs.
Jarren Duran was awarded the 2021 Final Series MVP🥇:
5-for-15
2HR
2D
6RBI#LBPRC⚾️🇵🇷 pic.twitter.com/HG40VAAlpB— Edwin Hernández Jr. (@LBPRCinEnglish) January 25, 2021
Duran went on to continue his power outburst after rejoining the Red Sox for Spring Training 2021. Here’s an absolute missile from the end of Spring Training:
Jarren Duran closing out Spring Training with a 💣. pic.twitter.com/DGS80UUJMt
— Red Sox Player Development (@RedSoxPlayerDev) March 30, 2021
Duran spent the bulk of last year in the minors. Over 60 Triple-A games in 2021, he hit 16 home runs, absolutely shattering his home run pace in the minors in 2018 and 2019. That stretch at Triple-A last year was full confirmation that he had rounded out his game for both real-life and fantasy purposes. Now, we just need to see if it will translate to the majors.
Stolen Base Upside
While Duran’s power breakout came late in his minor league career, his speed on the base paths was on display from the very start. He stole 24 bases in 2018, then snagged a whopping 46 bases in 2019.
There was no question that Duran was running the base paths at an elite speed during his time with the Red Sox last year. His average sprint speed of 29.3 feet/second-ranked is in the 96th percentile. For comparison purposes, Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Myles Straw clocked in at the same exact speed and that duo combined for 55 stolen bases over 268 games in 2021.
But enough with the numbers. An eye test should tell you all you need to know about Duran’s speed on the base paths. Here he is during his time in the majors last year turning what looks like a double, maybe a triple, into an inside-the-park home run:
Thesis: Jarren Duran is fast.
Exhibit A: pic.twitter.com/qIRdIAhGuE
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 29, 2021
Path to Playing Time
The Red Sox have a lot of decisions to make for their starting outfield for 2022. Alex Verdugo is the only sure thing everyday starter in the outfield for now, while the mix for the other two outfield spots includes Kike Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Duran.
Hernandez plays everywhere on the field and the team may need him more in the infield this year, particularly at second base where Christian Arroyo is the only other primary option. Martinez will get some starts in left field but should be the team’s designated hitter more often than not. Bradley will certainly be a bench bat, especially coming off of such a dreadful year during which he slashed .163/.236/.261.
So, as of now, Duran really doesn’t have a huge blockade in front of him for playing time. His primary position is center field, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him open the year as the team’s starter in center, with Verdugo in right and either Hernandez or Martinez in left, depending on how the rest of the lineup pans out.
Potential Concerns
The lack of clarity amidst Boston’s opening day lineup right now is both a positive and a negative for Duran. Once transactions open again, the Red Sox could be on the hunt for an outfielder via either free agency or trade. Adding a free agent like Corey Dickerson or Kevin Pillar wouldn’t be a problem for Duran, but if the team went big for someone like Kris Bryant or Nick Castellanos, Duran’s playing time could be in trouble.
The most concerning aspect of Duran’s time in the majors last year was his troubling plate discipline. Over his 33 games, he struck out 40 times while walking just four times. That amounted to a 35.7% strikeout rate, a 3.6% walk rate, and a horrifying 0.1 K/BB ratio.
Duran had some strikeout woes in the minors. He fanned 128 times over 132 games at High-A and Double-A in 2019 and then had 66 strikeouts over his 60 Triple-A games in 2021. He had a 0.36 K/BB ratio in 2019, but he cleaned that up a good amount in 2021, improving his K/BB ratio to 0.45 as he walked 30 times.
We’ve seen a lot of top prospects not named Wander Franco struggle with strikeouts upon debuting in the majors the past few years. Jo Adell had a whopping 41.7% strikeout rate over his first stint in the MLB in 2020, but he managed to get it down to just 22.9% last year.
Duran’s plate discipline will be something to watch for this spring. If he shows a healthier K/BB ratio, then that’s a promising sign that he just needed more time to get acclimated last year. If he continues to whiff at a high rate with low walk numbers, it might be a sign that he’s not ready for a major role in the bigs yet.
Where to Draft
Duran’s a player whose value for 2022 drafts could fluctuate greatly between now and the start of the season. If the Red Sox don’t make any personnel changes and Duran has a big spring, then he could become an extremely popular sleeper pick and shoot up draft boards. Conversely, if the Red Sox pad their outfield and Duran’s playing time looks significantly blocked, then he could go mostly undrafted, and rightly so.
From what we know right now, you should basically just have both of those scenarios in your mind. He could have a big spring, carry it over into the season, and be one of the best outfield value picks of the year. Or he could be someone you’re dropping from your roster a week into the season.
If you’re going into the late rounds of your draft and you need a sure thing outfield starter, then Duran may not be as solid of a pick as someone like Jeff McNeil or Randal Grichuk, but if you’re looking for a late-round shoot-for-the-stars type of pick, Duran has that potential. He has the skill set to be a fantasy stud and he’s going to be hitting in a hitter-friendly ballpark amidst a strong Red Sox lineup. Additionally, keep in mind that he’s particularly enticing in rotisserie and head-to-head categories leagues where he could be a big difference-maker in stolen bases.
