RADIO
Hello folks, and welcome back to Horse For The Course! I know we're all eager to jump right into the Masters, so we won't spend much time on last week's Valero Texas Open other than to say that this article was a banger that featured the winner, Corey Conners, as well as Matt Kuchar (T3) and Chris Kirk (T10). Let's keep that positive momentum rolling into the year's first major championship!
I can't wait to dive into the Masters with you guys. But first, let me remind you that this is just a small portion of RotoBaller's Masters coverage for the week! We have an amazing PGA DFS team that will be hard at work to bring you the best DFS, gambling, & statistical analysis in the world over the next few days. If you want more from me, I hope you'll check out my 2023 Masters Bible, which features a profile for every player in the field this week!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our excellent PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2023 Masters Overview
Sometimes I feel as though I've used every superlative in the dictionary to describe the Masters over the years. Tradition. Excitement. Class. Mystique. They all apply to the tournament that's my favorite one of the year.
While the other three major championships are obviously huge events, there's just something about the tradition and mystique of the Masters that makes it different. The Masters is the most unique of the major championships in that it's played on the same golf course every year. As a result, we have tons of course history to evaluate for most players in the field...a statement that is music to our ears when it comes to this article! In fact, even if you aren't normally a "course history believer", I would strongly encourage you to take it into account this week, as I genuinely believe that course history at Augusta National is crucial to evaluating players on this particular DFS slate.
Scottie Scheffler will attempt to be just the fourth player in history to successfully defend a Masters title this week. The Texan enters the week with white-hot form but will need to fend off a field full of the world's best golfers, which includes - for the first time in 2023 - the LIV Golf contingent.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Augusta National Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,475 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Designed By: Bobby Jones & Alister Mackenzie
The brainchild of the legendary Bobby Jones, in concert with Alister Mackenzie, Augusta National was built on a 365-acre property that had been Fruitland Nurseries. Jones imparted all his wisdom on the layout that would eventually become the most famous golf course in the world. The condition of the course is IMMACULATE, with not as much as a young azalea out of place.
Augusta National is a Par 72 that has now been stretched out to over 7,500 yards, thanks to some yardage that was added to holes No. 11 & No. 14 last year, as well as a new tee box that will add 35 yards to the famous 13th hole in this year's edition. The legendary layout tests every facet of a player's game. Distance off the tee is a huge advantage at Augusta National, as it is crucial for players to take advantage of the four Par-5s. Precision on approach shots with your irons, creativity with your short game, and the possession of nerves of steel on the lightning-fast greens are also needed, as is the perfect combination of aggression and patience. Piece of cake, right?
Recent Masters Winners & Scoring Info
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
- 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
- Average Winning Score Last Five Years: -13.6
The Horse
Rory McIlroy
- Event Scoring Average: 71.38 (14 career starts)
- Notable Course History: 2nd (2022), T5 ('20), T5 ('18), T7 ('17), T10 ('16)
- DraftKings Price: $10,600 FanDuel Price: $11,900
Since a tragic final round blow-up in the 2011 Masters at the age of 21, McIlroy has steadied the ship at Augusta National across the subsequent decade. He's now reeled off top-10 finishes in seven of his last nine Masters starts, including a career-best runner-up finish in last year's edition.
McIlroy's game is seemingly tailor-made for Augusta National, as his prodigious length off the tee and towering approach shots give him a built-in advantage every time he tees it up in the Masters. He averaged 318.1 yards in driving distance last year (best in the field) and hit greens in regulation at a 69% clip (second best in the field).
He narrowly missed tying the Masters single-round record of 63 last year with a final-round 64. Of Rory's 52 career rounds at Augusta National, he's logged 32 rounds under par. The Masters remains McIlroy's white whale and is the only major standing between him and the career grand slam. He's always possessed all the physical tools needed to dominate this course, now at age 33, perhaps he's finally ready from a mental perspective.
The Ponies
Scottie Scheffler
- Event Scoring Average: 70.58 (Three career starts)
- Notable Course History: Win ('22), T18 ('21), T19 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $11,100 FanDuel Price: $12,100
The Texan's Masters track record isn't lengthy, but it sure is powerful. Scheffler slipped on the green jacket on his third trip to Augusta National last year and it was a performance that was a masterclass in understated dominance.
He's never finished worse than T19 at the Masters and has carded nine rounds under par in his 12 career Augusta National strolls with his worst career round being a one-over-par 73 that came in the opening round of the 2021 edition.
Scheffler's length off the tee might not be as awe-inspiring as Rory McIlroy's or Jon Rahm's, but he is indeed very long and is averaging nearly 309 yards in driving distance this season. That length helps him to conquer Augusta National's testing layout, specifically the Par-5s, which he played in a cumulative nine-under par en route to victory last year.
In addition to his obvious comfort level at Augusta National, Scheffler heads to his title defense in nuclear form, which is reminiscent of the 2022 dominance he displayed in the lead-up to last year's Masters. He's scored two wins over the first three months of 2023, not missed a cut, and hasn't finished worse than T12 in any start this year. Does any of this sound familiar?
Jordan Spieth
- Event Scoring Average: 70.71 (Nine career starts)
- Notable Course History: T3 ('21), 3rd ('18), T2 ('16), Win ('15), T2 ('14)
- DraftKings Price: $9,700 FanDuel Price: $11,600
After scoring a win and two runner-ups across the first three Masters appearances of his career, Jordan Spieth had to eventually cool off at Augusta National. It took a while, but Spieth finally missed a cut in last year's Masters - his first in nine career starts.
All signs point toward the Texan getting back on track this year and making a run on a golf course on which he's finished T3 or better a remarkable 55.55% of the time.
He's displayed flashes of Spieth-ien magic on multiple occasions this year, including near misses at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Valspar Championship that each contained stretches of vintage, electric bursts from Spieth. His iron play has been perhaps the most encouraging facet of his game as of late - and has historically been a harbinger of success for him - as he's gained an average of 4.1 strokes on Approach over his last five tournaments.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Joe by using the discount code NICE when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Jason Day
- Event Scoring Average: 71.70 (11 career starts)
- Notable Course History: T5 ('19), T10 ('16), 3rd ('13), T2 ('12)
- DraftKings Price: $8,700 FanDuel Price: $10,700
My man Spencer Aguiar will tell you it was just a matter of time before Jason Day regained the form that lifted him to the No. 1 ranking in the world in 2015. After years of plotting from Spencer and a swing change from Day, we've finally seen some signs of life from the Aussie in 2023, including a quick bout with vertigo in the Dell Match Play a couple of weeks ago that was vintage Day. We are so freakin' back, baby.
The Aussie will take his rebuilt swing and refocused determination to an Augusta National layout that's been very kind to him over the years. A T2 in his 2011 debut indicated the legendary course was a great fit with a third-place finish in 2013 confirming the notion and kickstarting a remarkable run of seven consecutive made cuts at the Masters - all of them T28 or better finishes.
Although Day has missed the cut in his last two Masters starts, we can chalk that up to his form at the time rather than course fit. He enters the 2023 edition with form trending his way for the first time in a long time. The 35-year-old has played brilliant golf to this point of the year, displaying a renewed ball-striking prowess with a still-elite short game. Day has four top-10 finishes in six starts this year and has not finished outside the top-20 in any stroke-play event.
Corey Conners
- Event Scoring Average: 71.39 (Five career starts)
- Notable Course History: T6 ('22), T8 ('21), T10 ('20),
- DraftKings Price: $7,600 FanDuel Price: $9,400
Unfortunately, a win this past Sunday at Valero means that Conners heads to Augusta National with a big flashing neon sign that says, "Play Me" around his neck.
Be that as it may, the Canadian's expected DFS popularity this week doesn't alter the fact that he's been downright elite at the Masters in recent years. Since a T46 in 2019, Conners has found his groove at Augusta National. He followed a T10 in 2020 with a T8 in '21. The ball-striking extraordinaire then topped both those efforts with a career-best T6 in last year's edition that helped bring his Masters scoring average to 70.66 over his last 12 rounds in the year's first major.
His win in Texas last week was a case study in surgical ball striking. Conners gained a blistering 9.6 strokes on Approach and 14.6 strokes T2G for the tournament. That surge in form, coupled with his history at Augusta National, makes him the most underpriced player on this week's Masters slate.
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