RADIO
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Any Open Championship held on the Old Course at St. Andrews is going to be a historic event and that was certainly the case last week, as Cam Smith blistered the back nine of golf's oldest course to win the Open and the first major championship of his career.
With a venue and field that was almost as good as it gets last week, any event forced to follow the Open would pale in comparison. That said, it doesn't help that we're traveling to Minnesota for the upstart 3M Open this week, an event that's still in the early stages of its time on the PGA Tour schedule and that's drawn perhaps its weakest-ever field this year.
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2022 3M Open Overview
As we move from Scotland to Minnesota, there are undoubtedly some stark differences between the upcoming 3M Open and the events of the last couple of weeks. We go from links golf to pure TPC Americana. Though this is just the fourth edition of the 3M, we've learned over the three previous iterations that birdies will be needed in bunches this week.
Over those three previous editions, the secret sauce at TPC Twin Cities has proven to be the aforementioned ability to make lots of birdies - which is often spurred by a hot putter - and sharp iron play. As evidenced by two of the event's previous three winners - Matt Wolff & Cam Champ - distance off the tee doesn't hurt either.
Champ will be back to defend his title, while Wolff has wandered off to the LIV Tour in search of mental clarity and millions of dollars. The list of "stars" in this year's 3M field is a short one, as just Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, and Hideki Matsuyama could be considered truly elite. Exciting up-and-comers such as Sahith Theegala, Davis Riley, and Chris Gotterup do add a little spice to the proceedings, as they'll clash with a smorgasbord of PGA Tour veterans in Minny this week.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC Twin Cities
Par 71 - 7,431 Yards, Greens: Bent, Designed By: Arnold Palmer
TPC Twin Cities is, like other TPC facilities, geared towards exciting, fan-friendly golf and while that's not a bad thing for fans, it does make things difficult from a DFS perspective, as basically anyone in the field that gets hot with the putter and the irons over four days can win this event.
As it is seemingly every week, Approach play is paramount at TPC Twin Cities, as both 3M winners, Matt Wolff & Michael Thompson, gained over seven strokes with their irons en route to their respective victories in Minnesota, while Cam Champ gained over three on Approach last year. These fairways are massively wide, which does make me bump up driving distance a notch this week, though length isn't totally necessary for success, it certainly is an advantage. While Champ won at 15-under par last year, I feel that we're likely to see a winning score of at least 20-under par this week.
I always recommend checking out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent 3M Open Winners & Scores
- 2021: Cameron Champ (-15)
- 2020: Michael Thompson (-19)
- 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)
The Horse
Tony Finau
- Event Scoring Average: 68.00
- Notable Event Finishes: T28 (2021), T3 ('20), T23 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $10,500 FanDuel Price: $12,000
In an event that lacks a ton of history, Tony Finau is the only "elite" player in this field that has teed it up in all three previous editions of the 3M Open. Finau had a terrific chance to win this event in 2020, before ultimately settling for a T3. He's been solid, if unspectacular, in his other two trips to Minnesota and has amassed a career scoring average of 68.00 at TPC Twin Cities.
A missed cut at the U.S. Open aside, the Utah product comes into this year's version in rock-solid form. He's gained an average of 6.8 strokes T2G over his last five starts and has posted a pair of top-five finishes over that time frame.
Listen, we can talk stats with Tony until we're blue in the face, but the bottom line is that he's the class of the field and the highest-priced DFS option on the slate. Can he translate that into a win? I believe that he can, but his track record of coming up short in great spots is lengthy, and it will be interesting to see just how popular he'll be as the week progresses. If his ownership grows to epic proportions, we'll be forced to start considering a calculated fade in GPP formats.
The Ponies
Adam Hadwin
- Event Scoring Average: 67.38
- Notable Event Finishes: T6 ('21), T4 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $9,600 FanDuel Price: $11,400
A missed cut at the John Deere with a $10.4k DraftKings price tag was a great reminder that Adam Hadwin is not the most trustworthy player in the world. Here we are again with a similar type of field and price point for the Canadian. His 3M Open track record suggests we should be willing to get hurt again, as his 67.38 scoring average is the best in the field among those with at least two starts at TPC Twin Cities.
If we're willing to overlook his disappointing outing at the John Deere, Hadwin has indeed had a phenomenal year en route to amassing five top-10 finishes. His success in the 3M can likely be attributed to his excellence from the 175-200 yard approach range, a bucket which around 20% of iron shots will fall into this week and from which he grades out sixth in Proximity over the last 50 rounds.
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Cameron Tringale
- Event Scoring Average: 68.00
- Notable Event Finishes: T16 ('21), T3 ('20), T42 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $8,800 FanDuel Price: $11,000
There are some similarities between Cameron Tringale and the aforementioned Adam Hadwin, in that they both possess an intriguing blend of strong course history and sharp recent form. However, they are both a bit tough to trust at higher-than-normal price points. That inflated pricing is just the nature of the beast in weaker PGA Tour events such as this one and with that in mind, I'm intrigued by Tringale, a player that is a perpetual bridesmaid on the Tour but has nonetheless recorded four top-10 results this season. The 34-year-old doesn't necessarily pop in any specific statistical category, but is solid across the board, grading out 18th in this week's field in both SG: Total & SG: Par-4s over the last 24 rounds
Adam Svensson
- Event Scoring Average: 67.50
- Notable Event Finishes: T15 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $7,600 FanDuel Price: $9,700
The course history is admittedly a little thin, but in the context of this slate, Adam Svensson's T15 at the 3M in 2019 looks pretty good. He exited that week with a 67.50 scoring average at TPC Twin Cities and we also must take into account his $7.6k price tag on DK this week, a salary that feels way too cheap in comparison to the quality of this field.
The Canadian KFT grad comes into this year's 3M firing on all cylinders. He's posted top-25 finishes in four consecutive starts, including a T6 in his most recent outing at the Barbasol, an event in which he gained over seven strokes on Approach. Svensson is a sharp ball striker that ranks sixth in this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds. He's also a proven birdie maker that grades out first in the field in Birdies or Better Gained over the same number of measured rounds. His ownership will likely climb due to this misprice by DK, but he's a lock-button option in cash and single-entry formats on this slate.
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