Horse For The Course: PGA DFS - BMW Championship

August 24, 2020

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2020 BMW Championship. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller PGA DFS family! As some of you regular readers probably noticed, I was absent from all of my usual RB articles last week due to the death of close friend. I'd like to express my appreciation for all of you that reached out on Twitter with nice messages, and I'd especially like to thank my friends and colleagues here at RotoBaller who all pitched in to help cover last week's Northern Trust, with a special "Thank You" to my longtime friend Spencer Aguiar who did an amazing job writing this article.

Last week was a tough one for me personally, but it served as a great reminder that the PGA DFS community is perhaps the best in fantasy sports and something I'm very proud to be a part of. I'm happy to back talking golf with you guys! After Dustin Johnson's blowout win at The Northern Trust we head to the second leg of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup Playoffs this week, the BMW Championship.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

BMW Championship Overview

The playoff field has been whittled down from 125 at last week's Northern Trust to 70 for the BMW Championship. There will be no cut this week, which should kick us into a WGC-like state of mind when attacking DFS builds this week (we can get aggressive and should get contrarian).

As you can imagine from a field of the PGA Tour's best 70 players this season, the strength of this BMW field is extremely high. Last week's runaway winner Dustin Johnson will headline a group that includes golf's biggest stars like Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, and Jon Rahm. They'll be teeing it up at Olympia Fields Country Club, a course that has been introduced as part of the FedEx Cup Playoff rotation. The Illinois track was last seen hosting PGA pros in the 2003 U.S. Open won by Jim Furyk, but plays host to the NCAA Illini Invitational each year in the college ranks. This situation brings to mind similarities with TPC Harding Park a few weeks ago, in that we're basically just making an educated guess as to how this layout is going to play for modern professionals, which makes this a tough monster to tackle from a course history perspective. In the absence of substantial history, we'll make our best guesses as to fit this week. Let's tee it up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: Olympia Fields CC (North Course)

Par 70 - 7,366 Yards, Greens: Poa

We're always guessing as to what will happen when these classical layouts play host to modern Tour pros. Though Olympia Fields has a long and storied history, we haven't seen it host PGA Tour players since the 2003 U.S. Open that was won by Jim Furyk at eight-under par. At least on the scorecard, the old girl is a beast, stretching nearly 7,400 yards with seven Par-4s that will play over 450 yards, not to mention two Par-5s that measure in at over 600 yards. However, length alone is no longer a defense in and of itself, as we saw Justin Thomas dismantle a 7,600+ yard Medinah layout in last year's BMW Championship. What we do expect to be tough this week is the rough at Olympia Fields, with reports coming in that we could see rough of over five inches by the tournament's end.

We'll have to give a bump to those players that are long and accurate off the tee this week, while also specifically targeting those that perform well on Par-4s of over 450 yards and excel on approach shots longer than 175 yards. Anytime we're forced to guess on what skills to target, I always lean on SG: Tee To Green and Ball Striking.

Recent Champions & Winning Scores (Various Courses)

• 2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
• 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20)
• 2017: Marc Leishman (-23)
• 2016: Dustin Johnson (-23)
• 2015: Jason Day (-22)

The Horse

Justin Thomas

DraftKings: $10,800
FanDuel: $11,700
Notable Course History: N/A

As a lifelong Dustin Johnson fan, I'm well aware of how easy it is to become enamored with his game after he puts on a dominant display like he did last week. So, while recognizing that DJ can do some unbelievable things when he's playing his best, let's not forget about another player that's capable of blowing fields away, Justin Thomas.

JT won last year's BMW Championship in dominant fashion, posting a 25-under par final score at Medinah. And while that has no bearing on this week's BMW, it does illustrate what Thomas is capable of on any given week.  The Kentucky native has been flying under the radar since a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude a few weeks ago, but we can chalk his lackluster results up to an ice-cold putter. Thomas has lost strokes putting in three straight outings, including a horrible -4 mark on the greens last week at TPC Boston.

However, JT has continued to be razor-sharp from tee to green, he's gained strokes T2G in every tournament since the restart and is averaging 5.2 SG: Approach over his last five tournaments. While I don't think Thomas will go "overlooked" this week, I do think the combination of his recent finishes and the splashy options that surround him at the top of the salary scale will depress his ownership a bit. I'm always interested in JT, especially if it looks like rostering him might be a little bit contrarian.

The Ponies

Daniel Berger

DraftKings: $9,700
FanDuel: $11,200
Notable Course History: N/A

I've been preaching the gospel of Daniel Berger to anyone that will listen for the entirety of 2020, but it seems like my guy just continues to go overlooked and underestimated by the general public. In addition to a big-time win at Colonial in the first post-layoff event, Berger has remained ridiculously consistent since the restart, running off three top-three finishes in five starts since the win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Berger's only real misstep was a missed cut at the Memorial after taking a short break - though he still gained strokes both OTT and on Approach - and his statistical output has basically been blemish-free this year, as he's gained strokes T2G IN EVERY START OF 2020 minus the hiccup at Muirfield Village.

We're not 100% sure how this week's Olympia Fields layout will play, but we can feel confident rostering a player like Berger that's excelled in every facet of the game over an extended period of time. The FSU alum has displayed no real weaknesses as of late and it wouldn't be surprising to see him right in the thick of things at the BMW this week.

Scottie Scheffler

DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $10,600
Notable Course History: N/A

Scottie Scheffler popped on our DFS radars last year and logged some impressive outings during the Swing Season. The 24-year-old out of the University of Texas has made his name to those outside of the PGA DFS world with his performances over the last few weeks that includes a top-five finish at the PGA Championship and a scorching round of 59 last week at The Northern Trust.

Scheffler's season has been highlighted by ups and downs, that's been especially true since the restart, as he battled through a string of three-straight missed cuts before posting a top-25 finish at the Memorial. It's been "game on" for the Longhorn since then, as he's gained strokes T2G in four straight and heads into this week ranked second in the field in SG: T2G over the last 12 rounds.

We're still early in the rising star's career - and inconsistency is a time-honored sign of youth on the PGA Tour - but it looks like Scheffler is cut from the same cloth as fellow newcomer Matthew Wolff...he's either "really on" or "really off" with not much in between. His price tag has increased noticeably this week, but I'm willing to attempt to ride the hot hand with a player that will win on the PGA Tour very soon.

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Harris English

DraftKings: $8,300
FanDuel: $10,300
Notable Course History: N/A

Like the aforementioned Daniel Berger, Harris English's game doesn't exactly invoke strong feelings of excitement, but it's a matter of substance over style when considering the UGA Bulldog this week.

When discussing the most consistent golfers of the year, English undoubtedly belongs in the conversation. The guy has been a top-25 machine. Stretching back to the Waste Management in January, he only has ONE finish outside of the top-25 in 10 starts - a missed cut at the Schwab in the first tournament after the layoff - including an impressive (distant, but impressive) second-place outing last week.

English has gained strokes T2G in each of his last six starts, and nine of his last 10, while consistently besting the field averages in every major statistical category. It's never a sexy stat to discuss, but he comes into this week ranked sixth in the field in Bogey Avoidance - a skill that might pay dividends on this former U.S. Open layout.

Matthew Wolff & Viktor Hovland

DraftKings: $8,200 & $8,100
FanDuel: $9,800 & $10,000
Notable Course History: 2018 Illini Invitational Team Champions (Oklahoma St. Cowboys) & Individual Champ (Wolff)

It's probably not fair to these two great players (three if we wanna count Collin Morikawa) to always lump them in together, but for the purposes of brevity - and due to the similarities in their DFS price tags and talent - I'm throwing Matty Wolff and Viktor Hovland at you as a package deal this week.

Both of these young men have teed it up on this Olympia Fields layout fairly recently, as they participated in the Illini Invitational in 2018 while at Oklahoma State University (the team won, Wolff took home the individual title). In addition to that little bit of course history, we are also trying to grab both of these boys in surging form, as Wolff was undone by one bad round last week on the heels of a top-five finish at the PGA Championship, while Hovland has continued to log serviceable results with less than his best stuff, but appeared to find something with a final-round 66 (that easily could have been a 63) at TPC Boston.

You can pick your favorite or pair them together this week. I love the explosive scoring ability that both can provide over four guaranteed rounds.

Russell Henley

DraftKings: $7,800
FanDuel: $8,800
Notable Course History: N/A

Yet another player featured in this week's article that is short on name recognition, but has an exceptional skill set is Russell Henley.

Henley has been absolutely white-hot with his irons since the restart, gaining strokes both on Approach & T2G in his last six starts. Unfortunately, his tremendous iron work had been consistently undone by SG: Putting statistics that look like they were written by Stephen King. Luckily for him (and his DFS backers), Henley has finally settled down with the putter and the results are noteworthy, as he heads to Chicago fresh off back-to-back top-10s at the Wyndham and Northern Trust.

It's always a little frightening when we knowingly roster a player that can be "worst in the field bad" with the flatstick, but Henley checks so many of our other target boxes this week that I'm willing to roll the dice at this affordable price tag.

Jason Kokrak

DraftKings: $7,500
FanDuel: $8,400
Notable Course History: N/A

In DFS, golfers are sorta like fashion...just wait long enough and they'll eventually come back in style. For a couple of months last year Jason Kokrak was the brand that all the cool kids were wearing, but that trend met an Ed Hardy-like ending, as injury and poor results derailed Kokrak's year.

The PXG trooper has failed to get back on track for the most part in 2020, but has been showing intriguing signs of life recently. Kokrak heads to Olympia Fields on the heels of back-to-back top-15 finishes and in sneaky-good form. He grades out second in this elite field in Proximity, while ranking FIRST in the field in Proximity from 175-200 yards and fifth from 200-plus yards over his last 12 rounds...areas that should be of the utmost importance this week.

Kokrak has burned some bridges in the DFS community, but watch out because he might be coming back into style just at the right time.

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