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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! Tonight, we have a large 12-game slate to look at. The matchups are not great, but as always, I will find a few picks I like on the board. One of the marquee games tonight features James Harden and the Clippers returning to Philadelphia. In the late game, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets play host to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and the Phoenix Suns.
Last night, I went 1-2. The Warriors narrowly lost the first quarter and the Pelicans went over their team total by one point. My win came with the Kings and Mavericks going under in the first half. Close losses that could’ve gone either way, I’m not too discouraged. My post-All-Star break now moves to 36-23.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, March 27. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (215.5 total)
Tonight is a revenge game for the Clippers after what happened in Los Angeles on Sunday. A national spotlight on ESPN, I think Harden and the Clippers bring it tonight. L.A. lost by 14 as an 8.5-point favorite to Philly on Sunday. They followed that up by losing by 17 points against the Pacers on Monday. After their great win against the Clippers on Sunday, the Sixers fell back to earth, losing 108-96 in Sacramento.
The Sixers have been really good on defense this month. They are doing a good job limiting shot attempts and holding teams to low percentages. Unfortunately for them, you have to play both sides of the ball. In March, Philadelphia is averaging 102.5 points while hitting 43.2 percent of its FGAs and 35.8 percent from three.
The Clippers haven't been great but they've been better. Los Angeles is averaging 112.4 points and is knocking down 49.6 percent of FGAs and 37.2 percent from three. Los Angeles is in the bottom three of FGAs per game, and both teams are in the bottom 10 in pace.
The Sixers' defensive scheme is actually how the Clippers like to play on offense. Los Angeles is in the top five in offensive rating this month. The Clippers are 18-18 ATS on the road this season. Let's see them make that a positive record tonight.
PG to the hoop! pic.twitter.com/Y3s7sPJwm4
— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) March 26, 2024
The Pick: Clippers -5.5 (-120 ESPN BET)
Indiana Pacers (-2.5) at Chicago Bulls (232.5 total)
I'm going to roll with the Pacers in the first quarter of this game. These are two of the worst teams ATS in the opening quarter this season. The Bulls are 30-42, while the Pacers are 33-38-3. Indiana has been playing better recently, so I'm going to hope that trend continues tonight.
The Pacers are 3-1 ATS in their last four first quarters. This is their fifth and final game of their road trip, which started on March 20. In those four quarters, Indiana averaged 33 points. It hit 52 percent of the FGAs and 45.7 percent from three. This team is humming right now on offense, and I like it to have a good start.
Meanwhile, Chicago is only 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games. In March, the Bulls have played seven games at the United Center. They are averaging 25 points while hitting 42 percent of FGAs and 33.3 percent of threes. Chicago has allowed 31.7 points per game during this stretch. This places them in the bottom three among first-quarter home teams in March. Opposing teams are averaging 23.9 FGAs and 10.3 threes.
That's a lot of volume and plays into the Pacers' style of running and shot attempts. Indiana is seventh in first-quarter offensive rating and a respectable 20th in defensive rating in its last four games. That comes out to a 6.8 net rating.
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) March 26, 2024
The Pick: Pacers First Quarter ML (-128 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Portland Trail Blazers (+10.5) at Atlanta Hawks (217 total)
This is kind of an ugly pick, but I like the angle. I'm taking the Hawks' first-half team total under. Atlanta is coming off its best win of the season on Monday after beating the Celtics. Jalen Johnson is still out Wednesday, and Dejounte Murray is questionable.
Portland hasn't been awful as a first-half defense. The Blazers are ranked 24th in defensive rating in March, but their numbers look a little better than that. They are in the top six in limiting three-point attempts. This is important as Atlanta is a top-five first-half three-point shooting team. The Hawks will attempt to take a lot of shots from deep, and hopefully Portland can limit those attempts. In terms of FGAs, the Blazers are ninth this month in field-goal defense.
They are still 18th in opponent first-half points per game, so it's not like they are in the bottom five. Teams are only shooting 40.8 percent from 10-14 feet and 35.7 percent from 15-19 feet. Portland has done a good job closing off the middle part of the court, and they have also been limiting attempts from deep. I see this as a bit of a letdown spot for the Hawks.
First career double-double 🤞
▫️ 28 PTS
▫️ 11 REB (Career-High)
▫️ 5 AST pic.twitter.com/TaW5dxMcnW— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) March 26, 2024
The Pick: Hawks First Half Team Total Under 59.5 (-112 FanDuel)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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