RADIO
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! After 11 games yesterday, we have a much smaller four-game slate tonight. The marquee matchup tonight was supposed to be the Los Angeles Lakers traveling to Milwaukee to play the Bucks. Unfortunately, LeBron James is unlikely to play tonight. The uncertainty has pushed this game into a no-bet situation for myself. There are still three other games and all have playoff implications.
Last night, I went 2-1 on my picks. That made me 5-1 this week and 7-2 in my last nine picks. Coming off of a sweep Monday, I was worried it was a let-down spot and did come close to going 0-3. The Raptors covered the 2.5-point spread in the first quarter against the Nets. Brooklyn was up 22-20 after one, but that's all we needed. De'Aaron Fox hit a shot with nine seconds left in the first quarter to cash the King's first-quarter total line. The loss came when the Mavericks didn't cover the 3.5-point first-half spread in Utah. Utah was up 41-37 after the first quarter and 66-61 at halftime. Not a good pick by me, but we had the ball bounce our way in the other two. After last night’s events, I improved my post-All-Star break record to 35-21.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, March 26. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Golden State Warriors (-1.5) at Miami Heat (218.5 total)
I'm going to take the desperate team in the first quarter here. Golden State is 2-1 ATS in the opening quarter of its last three road games. For the season, they are 18-14-1. In the first quarter of those last three, they are only hitting 46.4 percent of their FGAs, but GS is making 44.8 percent of its threes. That's kind of been the story with them all season in the first quarter. They have hit the second-most first-quarter three-pointers, only behind the Boston Celtics, who are in first by a wide margin. In six March home games, Miami is averaging 27.3 first-quarter points. The Heat are hitting 47.4 percent of their FGAs and only 34 percent from deep.
For whatever reason, the Warriors have just played better first-quarter defense on the road than at home. When they play in the Chase Center, GS has given up 30 points per game in the first 12 minutes. On the road, that number drops to 27.7, and the Warriors are seventh in first-quarter road defense. At home, Steve Kerr's team is 17th in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating. Leaving the Bay Area, they improve to 12th in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating.
It's a similar story with Miami. The Heat are 22-14-1 ATS in the opening quarter on the road. At home, they are 17–17. Jimmy Butler & Co. are 23rd in offensive rating in the first quarter at the Kaseya Center this season.
The best of last week's action.@verizon || Plays of the Week pic.twitter.com/PhDR11H6Ya
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) March 25, 2024
The Pick: Warriors First Quarter +0.5 (-122 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5) at New Orleans Pelicans (222.5 total)
The Thunder got embarrassed in Milwaukee on Sunday, losing by 25. I'm going to bet on them to regroup on the defensive side of the ball tonight. I'm staying away from the win-loss outcome of this game, but I do like the Pelicans' team total under.
Oklahoma City is only 14th in points allowed per game this month. They are limiting opponents to 84 FGAs per game, which is the fifth-best in March. Opposing teams have hit 48.6 percent of those attempts, and that's where the Thunder have had problems. They are doing a good job of limiting attempts but teams are making shots against them. For the season, Oklahoma City is third in opposing field goal percentage defense. The season-long number is 45.6 percent. They are also giving up a lot of free throws per game, and I don't always love to rely on that. New Orleans is in the bottom 10 in free throw attempts in their last five games, so that should play in the Thunder's favor.
OKC could do a better job defending the three-point line. Using that five-game sample, the Pelicans are hitting about 11.5 per game, which places them in the bottom half of the league.
The Thunder are still seventh in defensive rating this month, despite having a defensive drop-off. I like them to be focused tonight after having a day to sit on their worst loss of the season.
Blocked by Shai, bucket by Lu 💪 pic.twitter.com/CtCr85Binl
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) March 24, 2024
The Pick: Pelicans Team Total Under 111.5 (-105 FanDuel)
Dallas Mavericks (+1.5) at Sacramento Kings (233 total)
With both teams on the second leg of a back-to-back, I can see this game starting slowly. You don't think defense when you think of these teams, but it's not as bad as it looks. I like the first half under in this game. If you just looked at points per game allowed, you'd see the Kings give up 59 and Dallas allow 58.9. These place both teams in the bottom 10 for opposing first-half points per game. Sacramento improves to 57.2 points when they play at the Golden 1 Center.
In March, the Kings have been a lot better on defense, especially in the first half. That 59-point-per-game average has dipped to 53.5 in 13 games this month. Opposing teams hit 51.3 percent of their FGAs against the Kings in the opening two quarters of games last month. This month, that percentage is down to 45.8, which is the seventh best. Sacramento is in the top 10 for the fewest allowed three-point attempts. Opposing teams are only hitting 34.2 percent of those attempts. Mike Brown's team is seventh in first-half defensive rating in March. That's a noteworthy improvement from their overall season ranking of 23rd.
Dallas has also improved. Their overall first-half defensive rating ranks 22nd, but in March they are 16th. Opponents are hitting 46 percent of their FGAs and 35.7 percent of three-point attempts. Both percentages are good enough to rank in the top 11 this month. Both teams are on a back-to-back, and this is a massive game for both sides. I like their improved defensive numbers, and I will root against points in the opening two quarters.
A. LEN REJECTION 🚫😤 pic.twitter.com/0NGK8X2Wmm
— Sacramento Kings (@SacramentoKings) March 26, 2024
The Pick: First Half Under 119.5 (-110 FanDuel)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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