RADIO
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm back with NBA picks after taking a break on Saturday. Today, we have six games on the slate to start the final week of March. The playoffs are quickly approaching, and every team has around 10 games left in the regular season.
On Friday, I rebounded nicely with a 2-1 record after going 0-3 on Thursday. The Thunder were able to hold the Raptors under their team total, and the Warriors went over their first-half team total to get us two wins. The one loss came when the Spurs did not cover the 2.5-point spread in the first half. San Antonio was up 30-18 at the end of the first quarter and was outscored 25-14 in the second quarter to only win the half by one. I really felt like we should've had that one, which would've given us the sweep. After the 2-1 night, I'm 30-20 post-All-Star break.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 3:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday, March 24. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Philadelphia 76ers (+10) at Los Angeles Clippers (214.5 total)
The Sixers come into this game off a 101-94 defeat Friday night to the Los Angeles Lakers. Philly showed a good fight, and they were winning 76-75 entering the fourth quarter before being outscored 26-18 in the final frame. I don't trust the Sixers for the full game, but I'm going to ride with them to cover the spread in the first quarter.
Ever since the Sixers got embarrassed by the Knicks on March 12, Philadelphia has been on a great first-quarter streak. They had won four straight opening quarters before losing 24-23 to the Lakers Friday night. Philadelphia's defense has been sharp to start these games. The Sixers rank second in defensive rating in their last five games. They are holding opponents to 9.2 field goals made and a 39.3 field goal percentage. From deep, opposing teams are hitting 35.7 percent of their attempts against this Sixers squad. Nick Nurse's team has been disciplined, only allowing 12 total FTAs in their last five opening quarters.
In March, the Clippers are fourth in first-quarter offensive rating and in the top 10 with the fewest opponent points allowed. It won't be an easy task, but Los Angeles has allowed a good number of three-point attempts to start games. For a team like the Sixers, who have struggled on offense, they should have opportunities to get shots. Philly is 4-1 ATS on the road in its last five and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
a man on a mission: pic.twitter.com/RHKHb6UNld
— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) March 23, 2024
The Pick: Sixers First Quarter +3.5 (-112 FanDuel)
Oklahoma City Thunder (+2) at Milwaukee Bucks (233.5 total)
Oklahoma City has won three straight games on the road, but I think that streak ends tonight. Going into Giannis Antetokounmpo's house hasn't been great for opposing teams this season. Milwaukee is 28-7 at home and 4-0 in March. The Bucks are second in home offensive rating this month and scoring the ball at an elite level.
In this four-game sample, Milwaukee is averaging 120.5 points. The percentages are eye-popping. They are hitting 50.7 percent of their FGAs, 45.5 percent from three, and they have connected on 71/81 FTAs. The Bucks share the ball well and also don't turn it over a lot.
Oklahoma City has been a very good road team this season, but they give up a lot of three-point attempts. Milwaukee can definitely take advantage of this, and I believe they will have their full squad locked and loaded in this game. The Thunder are very good but rank outside the top 10 in opponent road points per game, field goal attempts, three-point attempts, and three-point percentage. I'm favoring a Bucks team that has been hard to beat at Fiserv Forum this season. Milwaukee is also a very respectable 15th in defensive rating at home this season. Combine that with their big-time shot-making, and Milwaukee should improve to 29-7 at home Sunday night.
Highlights from last night's WIN over the Nets.
⚡️: @we_energies pic.twitter.com/dSBev4M4oU
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 22, 2024
The Pick: Bucks ML (-125 Caesars)
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New Orleans Pelicans (-12) at Detroit Pistons (216.5 total)
The New Orleans Pelicans continue to be a fierce group defensively. After giving up 121 points in a losing effort against the Orlando Magic on Thursday, the Pelicans rebounded Friday by winning 111-88 in Miami. They held Miami to 42 first-half points, and I'm hoping I can get a similar result tonight from the Pistons.
New Orleans has the No. 1 rated first-half defense in the NBA this season. They are holding opponents to a 44.5 field goal percentage and 33 percent from three. All of that leads to opposing teams only scoring 53.7 points per game in the opening two quarters against the Pelicans. These numbers are even better if you want to look at their last 10 games. In the last 10 games, opponents are only scoring 48.6 first-half points while shooting 41.9 percent on FGAs and 31.1 percent from three.
The Pistons have played nine home games in March. They are averaging 53.4 points on 44.9 percent field-goal shooting and 30.5 percent from three. In those games, they are 28th in offensive rating. Detroit has been a decent team, scoring in the paint in March. Unfortunately for them, New Orleans gives up the fewest PITP, and opponents are shooting less than 60 percent from five feet in March. The Pelicans lock it down in the first two quarters of this game.
Dat Z spin move 🌪️ pic.twitter.com/VVbaDJ01He
— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) March 23, 2024
The Pick: Pistons First Half Team Total Under 51.5 (-140 PointsBet)
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