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Every week, I try to tell you that the closer carousel never stops. There may be some weeks that are slower than others, but there are always things to take notice of to the trained eye.
This week, though, is one where the big news is obvious. One of the perceived best closers in baseball, one whom fantasy managers used a very early draft pick to select, has been removed from the closer gig. By now, you have probably figured out that I am talking about Edwin Diaz of the New York Mets.
What should fantasy managers do with Diaz? Who else from the New York bullpen should they pick up and start? Let’s dive into this and a whole bunch more with bullpens around MLB.
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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball
The biggest bullpen story this week comes from my hometown of Queens. The Mets and fantasy baseball managers thought they had one of the best closers on their hands but that has not been the case so far with Edwin Diaz. Not only has he blown three saves, but his ERA sits at 5.50 with a 1.22 WHIP.
Diaz has stated his confidence is low as he works his way back from a right patellar tendon tear. The Mets have said that his role in the bullpen will be fluid. While Diaz is clearly not living up to the early-round price fantasy managers paid to draft him, that does not mean you give up on him this early in the season.
He has still struck out 35 percent of the batters he has faced and his 2.85 xERA and 2.89 xFIP show he has had some bad luck. I would look to buy low on Diaz right now if you can. For those who have him on their roster already, your situation dictates what to do with him. If you are desperate for saves, you likely have to keep starting him. If you are sitting middle of the pack or better, you can get away from him for a week or two until this works itself out.
TLDR; Diaz' fastball is still fine, still has plenty of movement despite being a tick down in velocity, the real issue is the slider, which hasn't survived the velocity loss and is breaking less. He's also chucking pitches down the pipe when behindhttps://t.co/EY0UEonIkm
— Austin (@2_seamfastball) May 21, 2024
But hopefully, you listened to the many times I wrote to add Reed Garrett or Adam Ottavino. Garrett currently has a 0.72 ERA, 1.69 xERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a whopping 41 percent strikeout rate. He picked up a two-inning save this week as well. He is the top replacement option in the Mets bullpen. Ottavino has been highly effective with a 2.95 ERA, 2.29 xERA, and 0.93 WHIP with a 36 percent strikeout rate. He also has some experience closing.
Lastly, Jorge Lopez has a 2.38 ERA, 3.95 xERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a 17 percent strikeout rate to go with closer experience. But the lack of strikeouts is concerning. I rank them Garrett, Ottavino, and then Lopez.
Reed Garrett locks down the 6-out save! pic.twitter.com/WRz6XUUvq9
— SNY (@SNYtv) May 19, 2024
In the last week, the lone Orioles save has gone to Craig Kimbrel. It is extremely encouraging to see. A week ago, it looked like he was being removed from the closer role. The Orioles have now had four pitchers pick up a save this season but Kimbrel, who has nine, is the only one with more than two. He remains a must-start option as long as he is getting save chances on one of the best teams in baseball.
Yennier Cano, who has two saves already, is next in line. He also provides strong ratios, so he can contribute even if he is getting consistent save chances. Jacob Webb also has two saves for the Orioles and is in play for save-needy teams in deeper formats. Danny Coulombe, who I wrote up last week, remains a sleeper who can provide elite ratios and strikeouts and also has a save for Baltimore.
Daniel Hudson has picked up the lone Dodgers save in the last week. He now has three on the year and is the clear-cut top option in this bullpen as long as Evan Phillips is sidelined. Those of you who picked up Hudson should continue to enjoy it while it lasts. Phillips is nearing a rehab assignment, and while he will get multiple appearances in the minors, he is about a week or so away from returning. Once he is back, he becomes a must-start closer again and Hudson goes back to being a great ratio option. But we know he is next in line on one of the best teams in baseball.
A few injury notes from Dave Roberts:
- Dustin May has started throwing off a mound.
- Joe Kelly started his throwing progression today.
- Evan Phillips will need a 2-3 game rehab assignment. Could be back in 7-10 days.
- Bobby Miller’s three-inning sim game is tomorrow.— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) May 20, 2024
The Rays are back to being as confusing as ever with their bullpen usage. In the last week, they have had four different pitchers pick up a save. Pete Fairbanks, who we suspect to be the top option, was one of them. But Jason Adam, who has been the clear-cut No. 2, was not. Erasmo Ramirez, Garrett Cleavinger, and Kevin Kelly each picked up a save in the past week. Tampa is a tough bullpen to figure out right now and it is not winning games near the rate it has in the past, so it becomes even more frustrating when saves are limited. I rank the relievers in this bullpen: Fairbanks, Adam, and then Cleavinger. The rest I would not bother with unless I am very desperate for saves in a very deep league.
Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball
The Reds did not have a save chance in the last week, but Alexis Diaz still managed to hurt his stock a bit. In his last two outings, he has allowed two runs to raise his ERA to 7.02. Now, he does have a 3.89 xERA, so perhaps better days are ahead. But his 1.68 WHIP and 21 percent strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired. He is still the closer, so you still have to use him in fantasy baseball, but it has been a bad couple of weeks for the Diaz brothers. Fernando Cruz, who has a 5.03 ERA, 2.94 xERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a whopping 43 percent strikeout rate, is a great stash candidate who could help you with strikeouts in the meantime.
The Twins also did not have a save chance in the past week. As much as we want them to have one set closer, they have shown us that is not how they will operate. Jhoan Duran remains as elite as ever, but they will use him at times in high-leverage situations. Still, he has three saves in his first nine outings. He remains a must-start fantasy option. Griffin Jax, among others, will get save chances when Duran is not saved for the ninth. Until we see otherwise, Jax is a strong RP2/3 for fantasy purposes.
After a rough go for Tanner Scott and the Marlins, things have been better as of late. He picked up Miami’s lone save in the last week and has five of the seven on the season. He has pitched to a 1.80 ERA, 3.26 xERA, and 1.45 WHIP with a 23 percent strikeout rate. As long as he is getting the bulk of saves, he is worth starting in fantasy baseball. Scott remains a trade candidate, though, so getting to know the rest of the Marlins bullpen is not a bad idea. A.J. Puk, Anthony Maldonado, and Anthony Bender are all candidates to close if Scott misses time or is traded.
The Rockies had one save in the last week and it went to Tyler Kinley. It was his first of the year and he is the fourth Colorado reliever to pick up a save this year, joining Jalen Beeks, Jake Bird, and Justin Lawrence. Beeks leads the way with four, while Lawrence has two. That would make Beeks the top option to roster in fantasy, but Lawrence is in play in deeper formats as well. Just understand that the Rockies will not win many games, use multiple options in the ninth, and play their home games in Coors Field. You are risking your ratios chasing saves in this bullpen.
The Yankees have had a reliable closer this season in Clay Holmes, but he was annihilated on Monday night, allowing four runs on four hits and picking up the loss. It is not reason to worry yet and Holmes is still a must-start fantasy asset. But we have seen him have a prolonged slump before, as he struggled for a period last year and was removed from the closer role for a bit. Luke Weaver, Caleb Ferguson, and Dennis Santana are names just to remember in case Holmes struggles again. Weaver stands out the most as his 0.66 WHIP is the seventh lowest amongst qualified relievers.
"That one's on me"
Clay Holmes talks about tonight's outing, the first in which he's allowed an earned run all season: pic.twitter.com/LUhdheQOt0
— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) May 21, 2024
Elite Strikeouts and Ratios for Fantasy Baseball
Yimi Garcia is a pitcher I will continue to write about in this section as long as he continues to be elite. On the year, he has pitched to a 0.47 ERA, 1.45 xERA, and 0.58 WHIP with a 35 percent strikeout rate. He also has two saves and will be in the closer picture if Jordan Romano misses more time. Garcia, though, is the absolute best ratio and strikeout reliever and he is still on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. Go out and add him rather than risk your ratios with fringe starting pitchers.
Colin Holderman has pitched to a 0.68 ERA this season, the seventh lowest among qualified relievers. He has a 2.18 xERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 30 percent strikeout rate. So, he can help your strikeouts and ratios rather than using a starter who could easily get shelled. Not only that, but if anything happened to David Bednar, whether it be an injury or a trade, he could be next in line for saves in Pittsburgh. Aroldis Chapman would also be in the mix, but he himself is a likely trade candidate. Chapman, who still provides elite strikeouts, is a name to add the closer we get to the deadline. He could see himself traded to a team and put in the saves mix, just like what happened last year.
Jeremiah Estrada has pitched to a 0.77 ERA, 2.94 xERA, and 0.69 WHIP with a 35 percent strikeout rate. Those are absolutely elite numbers. The only thing he does not provide is saves. And he likely will not unless something happens to Robert Suarez. But even so, Estrada can help you in a multitude of ways and you can nab him off the waiver wire for a minimum bid. If questionable starters have burned you, add Estrada and let him stabilize your ratios for a couple of weeks.
JoJo Romero is another arm that can help in this regard. He has pitched to a 1.46 ERA and 0.73 WHIP to go with a 28 percent strikeout rate. Matt Strahm of the Phillies is another arm out there. He has a 0.95 ERA and 0.74 WHIP to go with a 43 percent strikeout rate. Another is Nick Martinez, who may only have a 22 percent strikeout rate, but has a 1.04 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. Lastly, do not overlook Bryan Hudson on the Brewers. He currently sports a 0.68 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and a 32 percent strikeout rate. Even in the most competitive of leagues, there are elite relievers you can find on the waiver wire to plug in place of a starter who has been blowing up your ratios.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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