November 5, 2016

Cliff Clinton evaluates some unexpected sleepers and busts for Week 9 of the 2016 NFL season by playing a game of fantasy football fill in the blanks.

No one wanted Aaron Rodgers. I thought a lot about this happening, as this week the rest of the fantasy community learned about my terrible fantasy trade I highlighted in this space a few weeks ago. He's been the best fantasy QB of the last two weeks, but by October 2015, one member of a work league of mine was really, desperately, pulling-out-all-the-stops hoping to make what he believed to be a fair trade.

He wanted to give his first round pick (Aaron Rodgers) for mine. Or my co-worker's. Or anyone in the league who did not draft a QB in the first round, AKA everyone else.

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Fantasy Economics

It was an important lesson in fantasy economy, something I think about all the time when I enter into trade negotiations. Fantasy economy isn't something that we document frequently when it comes to fantasy sports, but it's a commonly understood concept known by many different names. Just because you draft a player in a certain round does not mean he is consistently worth that much. In fact, that value really only pertains up until Week 1 begins. Yes, Jamaal Charles was totally worth a second or third round pick this year... until injuries made his stock plummet. The economy that plays into here was simple; a player, who cannot play, is worthless in that year. The same concept can become a bit more complicated easily. Dion Lewis was drafted in the last round of many re-drafts leagues, or not drafted at all. Now on the cusp of returning, Lewis is no longer worth that low of a cost.

This co-worker was committing a rookie error. He attached the Green Bay QB's value that was paid for, and equated it to the first round picks that actually ended up being first round picks. He insisted Rodgers still had value, and he did, but no one wanted to pay draft day prices for a QB who was under-performing. What his actual value was, was up for debate.

Fantasy economy is defined as such; in a re-draft league, the value of a player at the time of a trade is worth his future outlook, and bears no relation to a past payment. Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. are still WR1, but are not worth a David Johnson.

So this co-worker kept shopping Rodgers. He kept shopping, and shopping. For a WR1? No. How about two WR2? You see where this is going; everyone else in the league did too. Frustrated that the QB he wanted to keep (Tom Brady!) was no longer facing a BYE week, he felt like he was simply letting his first round pick go to waste. And he started to get desperate, realizing no one had any interest in paying top dollar for his QB.

Or even fifty cents on the dollar. It could be argued it was barely ten cents on the dollar when, after a morning of swapping trades with him, I lobbed him a terrible pitch in the dirt. And he swung, hard. That's how I got Aaron Rodgers in exchange for Kamar Aiken and Eddie Royal.

Running Back

Frank Gore will either be on my bench or will ruin my week.

Who would have ever thought that the Green Bay Packers would be scary against the run, but they've only given up two touchdowns to RB all season. Gore is probably still good enough for the FLEX designation in a particularly bad week, but he may not factor much into a shootout versus a tough defense, and certainly won't see any red zone work.

Dear Devontae Booker, do you like like me? I like like you this week.

I'm going to note its the second straight week that my RB recommendation is potentially an injury risk. But if Devontae Booker plays against the Oakland Raiders this week, he'll be facing a defense who last gave up two touchdowns to Kansas City, in Oakland. Booker will be the workhorse, could play into the passing game, and is a great RB option in one of the most brutal BYE weeks this year.

Am I going to really start Charcandrick West in Week 9?

Normally this is the space we like to use for the "barely owned" RB for particularly deep weeks, but that player doesn't exist. Sure, you might spend this week picking up Dion Lewis if he's still unowned, or praying that Tim Hightower is good enough to make magic happen. If you grabbed Charcandrick West this week (and if you own West, you just picked him up this week), you may be dreaming of his 10 yards a carry average in 2015, or his four touchdowns in nine weeks (ok, the second one isn't great.) I don't enjoy the thought of relying on West long term, but Jacksonville will be unable to properly gameplan for West and the Chiefs offense. He could see nearly all of Ware's typical target share if Ware ends up staying on the bench.

Wide Receiver

Don't hand me my money back, I'm going double-or-nothing on Michael Thomas

I don't understand why the New Orleans Saints tend to target Thomas more when they are on the road, but the small sample size of the last four games has told a story; 22 targets in two games on the road, and 11 targets in two games at home. New Orleans is visiting the very-bad 49ers this week, so maybe Michael Thomas breaks a rookie franchise target record in Week 9

I will be discarding my Travis Benjamin and replacing him with two cards from the deck

The WR roulette in San Diego is just a ton of fun for fantasy purposes, and it only gets more fun in Week 9. Tennessee has been quietly limiting wide receivers (except the Cleveland Browns, oddly enough), and Benjamin is only third on the team in routes run. His share of receptions are also decreasing nor is he fully healthy. I would avoid, even in a tough week.

I am out of options, and will be swiping right on Cordarrelle Patterson (owned in less than 6% of leagues)

I feel grateful that 4% of leagues read my column last week when Patterson was in this space, and I'm sorry to disappoint you. So I'm double or nothing-ing. I can tell you that Detroit is a defense that won't present Patterson much of a problem, but more realistically I think Bradford has a bounce-back game at home, making Patterson the beneficiary.

Tight End

Parachute? I don't need no parachute, I have Kyle Rudolph

If Patterson and Bradford have a bounce-back at home, then Rudolph is definitely a candidate for red zone targets against Detroit. Let it be said here; the matchup is good, and shouldn't be overly concerning for Rudolph owners hesitant from the lack of offensive production recently.

Don't cry kids! We will bury Julius Thomas in the yard

I will be playing Thomas this week because I have no other options, but he is firmly in the "score a touchdown or be worthless" camp. Kansas City won't likely allow a TE touchdown, so Thomas is... I mean, worthless is such a strong word....