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The fantasy football playoffs are rolling along for all leagues. I hope you all managed to finesse your way into your league's next round for this season (I know I lost my play-in game and am still recovering from the disappointment). Even if you didn’t make it, I have a Thursday night breakdown for you whether you are playing DFS, in a consolation bracket, or just trying to avoid last place.
This week, we have the top-two picks in the 2021 draft going head-to-head. Since being drafted, one of these two has had to deal with a self-centered coach who has an inappropriate understanding of age gaps. While the other QB is well on his way to becoming Urban Myer himself.
All jokes aside, we have a very interesting matchup this week. Can Trevor Lawrence dismantle another top-tier NFL defense? Or will he be unable to handle the sauce? My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Thursday Night Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em article.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets - 8:15 pm ET
Notable Injuries:
- Mike White (QB, NYJ) - Ribs - Out
- Zonovan Knight (RB, NYJ) - Ankle - Questionable
- Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX) - Toe - Questionable
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
Arguably the best WR so far in the 2022 rookie class gets an unbelievable matchup to start the fantasy playoffs. Wilson has had seven targets or more in each of his last four games and 75+ yards in each of them. This includes one game with 162 yards and one game with two touchdowns.
This week, he faces a Jaguars defense that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to the position since Week 8. Plus, this Jaguars offense has found its groove and forces its opponents to pass. I think Wilson is a top-12 player at the position this week, even with Zach Wilson under center. Plus, I’m calling for the Pie Shop to be open!
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Probably for the first time since his rookie season, Engram makes the must-start section of this article. Lately, the veteran TE has been on fire. In his last three games, he has 254 yards, three touchdowns, and 24 receptions. As the season has progressed, he has surprisingly become a locked-in option for the position.
This week, he takes on a Jets team that is among the top of the league in all metrics, except against TEs. That’s right, the Jets are middle of the table against the TE position. Therefore, even if his name doesn’t spark confidence, there’s no reason you shouldn’t stay in the flames again this week.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence has been knocking at the Must Start door for five weeks now. Over that stretch, he has 20+ fantasy points in four games, averaging nearly three touchdowns per game, and three games surpassing 300 passing yards. He just lit up a tough Cowboys defense, and now takes on a formidable Jets team.
The Jets have been allowing a mere 15.3 fantasy points to the position over the second half of the season. Pair this with the fact that they are allowing the fewest passing TDs per game over that span and the fifth-fewest passing yards, and you have some worries about Lawrence. Either way, he has been electric lately and should still be started as a fringe top-12 option this week.
Flex Considerations for Fantasy Football Lineups
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones (WR, JAX)
Last week’s top fantasy WR, Zay Jones, and the WR10 on the season find themselves in the flex option section. Their recent production has been outstanding. Jones has seven or more targets in each of his last five games, has four touchdowns in his last two games, and is averaging seven receptions per game over that span. As for Kirk, he’s been the definition of hot and cold over his last four games. With two games of 40 yards and two games of 90+ yards, fantasy managers are hoping he can find some consistency over the next two weeks.
Although I think each of these players should be starting in almost all formats, I wanted to temper expectations. This Jets defense has been incredible against WRs. I’m talking they’ve held Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs to under 45 yards in two of their last three games. However, they did allow Amon-Ra St. Brown to have a decent game last week, giving me hope that Kirk can find success in the slot. Be prepared to hold your breath as you watch these two start your semi-final matchup this week.
Travis Etienne (RB, JAX)
After disappearing for fantasy purposes for four weeks straight, Etienne managed to find success last week. Although we haven’t seen an explosive game from the young back since Week 9, he did manage over 125 yards last week.
Unfortunately, his performance last week might provide some false confidence heading into this matchup. The Jets are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position and 0.3 rushing TDs per game over the last eight weeks. It’s projecting to be a tough day at the office for Etienne, but I’ll still have him in my top 24 at the position.
Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ)
This is a gross start, I’m not going to lie. However, we just saw Wilson be functional in a plus matchup last week, hitting the 20 fantasy point mark against the Lions. Now, this Jets team faces a defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards and most passing touchdowns per game since Week 8. If you need a quick pivot from Jalen Hurts or are desperate for a QB2 play in a Superflex, Wilson is definitely functional this week.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Zonovan Knight & Michael Carter (RB, NYJ)
Zonovan ‘Bam’ Knight has taken over this backfield during the last few weeks. For the first time since Breece Hall’s injury, this team has some explosiveness at the RB position. However, the fact that Carter is still getting worked in and James Robinson is still around makes Knight almost impossible to trust. Plus, this Jaguar defense has been solid against the RB position (the 13th- fewest fantasy points allowed per game). As a result, I can’t imagine relying on any Jets' RB option during such a massive week for fantasy.
Elijah Moore (WR, NYJ)
It seems like this season, Moore has been playing ‘loves me, loves me not’ with fantasy managers’ hearts. Once an offseason darling to openly speak against the team, we’ve seen it all this season. Last week, against a brutal slot WR defense, he managed to have a decent week. Since he has six or more targets in three straight games, you can look his way in DFS lineups. However, his history with Zach Wilson terrifies me for any meaningful playoff matchup.
Tyler Conklin & C.J. Uzomah (TE, NYJ)
Last week, C.J. Uzomah managed to score two touchdowns. This week, all we know is that both are going to be splitting limited work from Zach Wilson. As a result, neither is playable this week.
Honorable Mentions: James Robinson (RB, NYJ), Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, JAX), Corey Davis (WR, NYJ)
Ellis’ Picks
Jets -1 (8-9), Under 38.5 (5-12)
Career Thursday Night record: Spread (30-23), Over/Under (26-27)
Last week, we rode with Brock Purdy and found ourselves splitting the picks. This week, I went in thinking I would ride with a hot-handed QB and side with Duval County. For what seems like the eighth time this season, we have a spread of fewer than two points. As a true pick ‘em game with two teams battling with each other for an AFC Wild Card spot, this should be a great game. Last week, we saw the Jaguars of the NFC (the Lions) use their potent offense and abysmal defense to sneak out a win at Metlife Stadium. However, this week in poor weather, I think the defenses will win out. Give me the Jets and the under.
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