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Nicho Roessler discusses fantasy football players who managers should stay away from heading into the 2025 NFL season. They may not perform well for your squad.
Fantasy football players trending "down" can mean a few different things. It can mean aging veterans, a new situation for players, regression in production after a stellar season, a change in coordinators, or all of the above. It doesn't necessarily mean these players won't produce; it's just a warning sign to proceed cautiously.
Ultimately, marking these players as "high-risk" means that the downside for this player doesn't justify the potential ceiling or floor of the other player being drafted around the same ADP.
In this article, I will discuss some players trending down heading into the 2025 fantasy football season and make suggestions for other players around the same price.
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Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, Washington Commanders
On Saturday, March 1, the San Francisco 49ers traded wide receiver Deebo Samuel to the Washington Commanders for a fifth-round pick. Samuel will join a Commanders offense that overachieved expectations in 2024 and has one of the best young stars in the game, quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Samuel spent the last six seasons with the 49ers and has been a key cog in the team's success over the last six years. However, 2024 was a different story, and he is reaching a point in his career where he is getting up there in age (29) to go along with being very injury-prone.
During the 2024 season, Samuel had just 51 catches on 81 targets for 670 receiving yards and three touchdowns in 15 starts. He also contributed on the ground, rushing for 136 yards and one touchdown. Those totals were the lowest production we have seen from him in his career. In addition, he also took his frustration to social media, which is never a good sign for locker-room camaraderie.
This was the turning point for Deebo Samuel this year. His approach with the media was different after this, especially coming off his not enough touches tweet.
Fans booed him after this drop and I’m sure he heard it loud and clear. pic.twitter.com/ME3Va6Ov3X
— Matt Lively (@mattblively) February 9, 2025
The biggest question is how much better can it get than the 49ers offense? Samuel's outlook for 2025 seems like a high-risk, high-reward type of investment based on his age and injury history. To me, it seems like too much of a risk from a fantasy perspective.
According to RotoBaller WR rankings, players like Khalil Shakir and Jauan Jennings are priced around the same spot. They might not be as big of a name as Samuel's, but they can provide fantasy managers with a safer floor and just as high of a ceiling.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams' inclusion on this list might surprise some people, but hear me out. Williams' efficiency declined in 2024, and his fumbling issues remain a big problem, as he had five fumbles in 2024. In addition, during the 2023 season, he averaged 5.0 yards per carry and we saw that drop to 4.1 yards per carry in 2024.
More concerning, the Rams drafted Blake Corum in the 2024 NFL Draft. Although we didn't see Corum heavily involved in 2024, Rams head coach Sean McVay has been known to surprise fantasy managers regarding how he likes to deploy his running backs.
KYREN WILLIAMS FUMBLES IT AND EAGLES ARE SETUP 1ST & GOAL 😱
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/WeWWNOO5Tg— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 19, 2025
Fantasy managers will benefit from drafting running backs like James Cook or Jonathan Taylor, who are currently priced right around where Williams is. For me, there is too much risk associated with Williams to take him in the first two rounds of a draft.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid battled knee injuries for most of the 2024 NFL season but was healthy enough to still play. Kincaid finished the year with 448 receiving yards and two touchdowns, which is not necessarily anything to write home about.
Kincaid has received a lot of hype over the first two seasons of his career due to the offense he plays in and his quarterback, Josh Allen.
When do we draw the line in the sand and say he is not a top-10 tight end? The tight-end position is fairly deep, with guys like Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and Sam LaPorta, along with top-tier tight ends like George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce.
My point is that there are other options, and the Bills have a run-first offense with a quarterback who likes to spread the ball around to multiple receivers.
DALTON KINCAID WITH THE BIGGEST DROP OF HIS LIFE...pic.twitter.com/hmBkRMxKXM
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 27, 2025
Teammate Khalil Shakir led the team in receptions with 76. Although I expect Kincaid to perform better than he did in 2024, as far as the tight-end ranks are concerned, he is falling down the ranks compared to years past.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner is coming off a nice 2024 season where he finished as RB11. He rushed for 1,094 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 47 receptions for 414 yards and one touchdown through the air.
Pretty impressive, right? Good enough for the Cardinals to re-sign Conner to be their main running back, but reports out of Arizona are high for second-year running back Trey Benson.
Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon was blunt when asked about Benson, saying he would "light it up." It seems like Gannon wants to turn this backfield into a two-headed monster rather than have Conner carry the whole workload. If that is the case, Conner's overall production should be trending down.
.@AZCardinals rookie RB Trey Benson takes the carry in for his first career NFL TD!
📺: #CHIvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/W9HRN9YnfN— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
In addition, Benson was the second running back picked in the 2024 NFL Draft, and Conner will be 30 in May. Outside of a select few running backs like Derrick Henry, we typically see running backs decline in production around this age, making the case for him to fall the ranks in 2025 drafts.
Fantasy managers should still get some solid production from Conner this year, but signs are pointing toward a two-running-back backfield.
If he isn't getting the volume and opportunities, he might be someone who could be a potential bust at his current ADP. Running backs like Kenneth Walker III and Chubba Hubbard are currently priced around where Conner is being drafted.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins was benched in Week 16 of the 2024 season. He had a career-high 16 interceptions and threw for only 18 touchdowns. The Falcons made a huge investment in Cousins (four years, $180 million) during the offseason and surprised some folks by picking Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in the 2024 draft. In hindsight, it's a good thing they did.
Cousins had some moments in 2024 where he looked like the version of himself from his solid years in Minnesota, but a brutal injury to his Achilles tendon in Week 8 of the 2023 season ended his season and career with the Vikings.
Perhaps he was showing some lingering effects of his age (36) and his ability to overcome his injury, or the nerves of a first-round quarterback in Penix looking over his shoulder. Cousins has completely fallen off the radar for fantasy purposes.
🚨🚨KIRK COUSINS FUMBLES THE SNAP FOR HIS SECOND TURNOVER OF THE GAME! 🤯🤯🤯
— NFC North News (@NFCNorthNewss) September 8, 2024
It's uncertain where Cousins will land in the 2025 season. ESPN's Dan Graziano wrote that trading him is the best course of action for the Falcons. However, it will be tough to find a trade partner based on his guaranteed money, leaving the option to be a backup quarterback to Penix heading into 2025.
Based on what we saw from him last year, it's hard to imagine his situation getting much better or his ability to outperform Penix. There are too many factors leading up to the 2025 season to consider Cousins a fantasy quarterback.
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