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Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 1 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.
Welcome everyone to the first edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 1 of the 2025 season! Today I'll be taking a look at names like Rafael Devers, Roki Sasaki, Jack Leiter, Sean Burke, and more.
Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will choose a few players who have performed well lately and a few who have not, and I will analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
We only have a few games of data, so players for this article will be judged on their current roster position and short-term performance.
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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, March 30, 2025.
Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers (C)
.333/.333/1.333 Slash Line, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Catcher is always a tough position to find value at, so any sign of life is worth monitoring. Jonah Heim was an All-Star in 2023 and is off to a strong start to the 2025 season. Rostered in just 11 percent of leagues, Heim may be an early-season roster option for fantasy managers looking to bolster their situation.
Heim did not draw the start for Thursday's Opening Day, but he made his first start count in Friday's 4-1 win over the Red Sox, crushing two solo home runs.
Jonah Heim clubs two homers as Jack Leiter secures his first big league win! pic.twitter.com/N78Zb8pvoT
— MLB (@MLB) March 29, 2025
Heim will have to compete for playing time with Kyle Higashioka (who got the Opening Day nod), but Bruce Bochy's recent comments seemed to indicate that playing time could be earned with a hot bat. Higashioka may be a better defensive catcher, but Heim has shown flashes of offensive strength throughout his career.
Jonah Heim is in today's lineup at catcher after his 2 HR game. Kyle Higashioka will get tomorrow, per Bruce Bochy.
Bochy has a loose "if you hit a HR, you're playing tomorrow" rule.
"I break that once in a while," he said, "but I've never broken that when you hit two."
— Shawn McFarland (@McFarland_Shawn) March 29, 2025
The Rangers should have a strong lineup this season, so any exposure to it, even at the bottom, could be an opportunity for fantasy managers. Heim's fantasy value will be determined by how much playing time he is allowed, but he could earn it with a hot offensive start. He should be on fantasy radars in at least all two-catcher leagues.
Kristian Campbell, Boston Red Sox (2B/OF)
.500/.583/.900 Slash Line, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Kristian Campbell generated plenty of fantasy appeal after a strong 2024 season in the minors, making him a player to watch this spring. He did not perform well despite getting plenty of opportunities, yet he made the Opening Day roster. The Red Sox seem to have made a correct decision in the early going.
The 22-year-old, who came in as the No. 7 overall prospect per MLB Pipeline, has slashed a strong .500/.583/.900 in his first three games. Campbell showed the complete package of average, power, speed, and plate discipline in the minors in 2024, so simply getting a chance with the Red Sox to start 2025 makes him a riser.
431 FT and 112.2 MPH off the bat 🔥
Kristian Campbell sent this ball packing for his first career home run! pic.twitter.com/1uPvvamJjC
— MLB (@MLB) March 30, 2025
Like all prospects, Campbell will need to prove himself to both the Red Sox and fantasy managers for an extended period before being fully trusted. The good news is that he has all the skills to be a fantasy contributor and has started things off on the right note.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Risers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, March 30, 2025.
Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 6 IP
Fantasy managers likely did not pay much attention to a little-known 25-year-old pitcher drawing the Opening Day start for the White Sox. They should be paying attention to Sean Burke after his first performance, especially since he is just 16 percent rostered.
Burke made easy work of the Angels, pitching six scoreless innings, allowing three hits and no walks with three strikeouts. He had a mediocre minor-league career, but he did impress in a short 2024 MLB stint, compiling a 1.42 ERA and 28.9 percent strikeout rate in 19 IP.
Opening Day nod?
No problem for @whitesox rookie Sean Burke:
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K pic.twitter.com/DCtno0XUy0
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 27, 2025
The White Sox drew fantasy attention for mostly the wrong reasons last season, but fantasy managers are always on the lookout for potential breakouts wherever they can find them. Burke should have plenty of chances to prove himself this season, making him a Fantasy Riser early on.
Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers
1-0, 1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5 IP
Unlike Burke, Jack Leiter had plenty of fantasy hype coming into 2025. After a rough 2024 debut, Leiter's 2025 role with the team was unclear. However, a strong spring and several injuries gave him a rotation opportunity to start the season, and he took advantage of it.
Jack Leiter was straight 🔥 en route to his first Major League win.
The @Rangers' No. 3 prospect hit 99 mph multiple times, generated 12 whiffs and K'd 4 over 5 frames: https://t.co/xV3ixLr8y3 pic.twitter.com/h87ovsNN87
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 29, 2025
The 24-year-old looked sharp in his first start against the Red Sox, allowing one run on five hits and a walk with four strikeouts in five innings. He showcased his powerful arsenal, touching 99 mph with his fastball while generating swings-and-misses with his four-seamer, sinker, and slider.
Fantasy managers may not be ready to fully trust Leiter after one outing, but they may not have much more opportunity to pick him up if he continues to perform well. He is currently rostered in 45 percent of leagues, so those interested in him may need to act now before it's too late.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, March 30, 2025.
Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs (2B/3B)
.158/.200/.316 Slash Line, 1 HR, 1 RBI
Matt Shaw came into 2025 as the Cubs' No. 1 prospect and the No. 19 prospect overall, per MLB Pipeline. He didn't have a great spring but made the big-league roster. However, he has hit just .158 in his first 20 plate appearances. Should fantasy managers be worried about Shaw this early?
This Faller should come with a big asterisk; we only have a small sample size, and Shaw has fantasy hype for a reason. He hit his first big-league HR on Saturday, which was at least an encouraging milestone.
First career big league home run for Matt Shaw! pic.twitter.com/KAZw6KbdQu
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) March 30, 2025
That being said, hitter prospects have generally struggled in their first stints at the Show over the past several seasons. Shaw displayed a great eye in his time in the minors, but he currently has a 30.0 percent strikeout rate.
Shaw is in this first article more as a caution for fantasy managers in single-season leagues than anything else. He will likely be given plenty of opportunity to prove himself, given his pedigree. He could very well become a fantasy contributor this season, but it may happen later than fantasy managers are hoping for.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox (3B)
.000/.077/.000 Slash Line, 0 HR, 1 RBI
While Shaw's inclusion in this article is more of a caution, Rafael Devers has clearly earned his spot as a fantasy faller. He had a noteworthy spring for the wrong reasons and has yet to record a hit. What has gone wrong, and should fantasy managers take action?
First, Devers did not put together a strong offensive spring and had to contend with the team signing Alex Bregman. Despite Devers' comments, manager Alex Cora ended up assigning Devers to be the team's everyday designated hitter.
He has done a historically poor job in his new role. Devers has gone 0-for-12 with 10 strikeouts to start the season, making him the first MLB player on record to strike out at least 10 times in the first three games of a season. Typically, a high-end fantasy pick, Devers has done nothing to instill confidence in fantasy managers.
It may be that he just needs time to adjust to his new role or get fully ramped up (he only had 15 spring plate appearances). Either way, Devers has already been displaced from his regular role at third base, and things could get interesting if he cannot get his bat going in the DH role.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Fallers
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, March 30, 2025.
Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers
0-2, 5.79 ERA, 2.79 WHIP, 4 2/3 IP
Roki Sasaki was perhaps the most intriguing MLB newcomer this season, given his success in Nippon Professional Baseball. Despite being MLB Pipeline's No. 1 overall prospect, he has had a rough start to his MLB career.
The 23-year-old has brought the heat with a 97.1 mph fastball, but he has lasted just four 2/3 innings in his first two starts. His five strikeouts to nine walks is concerning and has limited his ability to get anywhere close to five innings.
His skill set is undeniable, but his fantasy value could actually take a hit with the Dodgers. With such a deep roster, the Dodgers may not need to rely on Sasaki as much as another team with less depth, giving him even less margin for error.
Fantasy managers should give Sasaki some time to figure things out, but they may want to wait to see some improvement before trusting him in their rotations. His walk issues could hurt WHIPs in the early going in roto/category leagues, and his inability to pitch more than a few innings could cap his per-start value in points leagues.
Nestor Cortes, Milwaukee Brewers
0-1, 36.00 ERA, 5.50 WHIP, 2 IP
Nestor Cortes has never been a top-tier fantasy option but has been a serviceable starter throughout his career. He was traded from the Yankees to the Brewers this offseason and immediately had a chance for redemption against his old team. Unfortunately for him, things went just the opposite.
Cortes had a historically bad start in his old home park, allowing eight runs on six hits (including five HR) and five walks with two strikeouts. While he was facing a tough lineup, this was a far worse outcome than anyone could have thought.
Nestor Cortes is the only pitcher in the divisional era (since 1969) to allow a home run to each of his first three batters faced in his first game with a new team. pic.twitter.com/xBcdvIfOYZ
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) March 29, 2025
Again, it is easy to overreact to small sample sizes, and Cortes had a solid spring with his new team. Cortes will get a better matchup in his next scheduled start against the Reds in Milwaukee, but his awful first start may give fantasy managers pause before they put him back in their rotations.
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