X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Post-Hype Hitters Set to Breakout in 2020

Frank Ammirante examines three post-hype outfielders who could break out in 2020 for fantasy baseball teams. These young OF may be undervalued draft targets and sleepers.

Post-hype hitters are former top prospects who have struggled to find success in the major leagues. These are players who were once viewed as intriguing fantasy assets but now have discounted prices due to the slow starts in their respective careers. 

The three outfielders in this list have gained value because of the delayed start to the 2020 season. Each of these players was questionable to start the season had it begun on schedule, but now, if we do get a 2020 season, they will be able to start on time. 

Each of these hitters combines power and speed, making them appealing options, given the current climate of speed scarcity. Let’s find out why Byron Buxton, David Dahl, and Alex Verdugo are three post-hype hitters ready to break out this coming season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Year Brl% LA° xSLG K% Z-Contact% GB%
2017 5.6 11.8 0.399 29.4 77.2 42.6
2019 8.3 19.5 0.433 23.1 81.0 29.6

Since Buxton only had 94 plate appearances in 2018, we’ll compare his 2017 and 2019 seasons. As you can see in the chart, Buxton began to hit the ball much harder, with a 2.7% increase in Brl%. He also began to hit the ball in the air more frequently, trimming his GB% by 13% and increasing his launch angle by 7.7 degrees. This explains why he was able to hit 10 HR in 295 PA this past season, after only hitting 16 HR in 511 PA back in 2017. It was also encouraging to see how Buxton lowered his K% by 6.3%, as he was able to make contact on zone pitches more often - his Z-Contact% increased by 3.8%. Buxton finished 2019 with a .262 BA/.314 OBP/.513 SLG slash, 10 HR, and 14 SB in only 295 PA. It’s likely that he would have finished as a 20/20 hitter last year had he stayed healthy.

Now entering his age-26 season, Buxton has a chance at a career year in a shortened season. He will likely remain in the nine-hole, but the Twins have one of the best lineups in baseball, so this won’t impact his value too much. Hitting at the bottom of the order will provide more stolen base opportunities, and there’s always a chance that sustained periods of strong performance could bump him up in the lineup to a more favorable position. Buxton had shoulder surgery in September, but the long layoff should allow him to heal and be ready to make an impact for your fantasy team. 

A projected pace of .260 BA, 77 R, 23 HR, 75 RBI, and 14 SB would give Buxton an Expected Draft Value of 108.8, which is 49 picks earlier than his current 157.63 NFBC ADP. Fourteen stolen bases is a conservative projection for Buxton, so it’s likely that he returns even more value should he stay healthy. 

 

David Dahl, Colorado Rockies

Year Brl% SweetSpot% xwOBAcon
2018 9.3 35.0 0.413
2019 10.3 41.0 0.436

Dahl hit the ball harder in 2019, with a 1% increase in Brl% and .023 improvement in xwOBAcon. Dahl was also able to find his sweet spot more often, with a 6% increase.  If Dahl could maintain these improvements, it bodes well for his chances of continuing to hit at a 20-HR pace in this upcoming shortened season. Dahl also has above-average speed, so there’s definitely some untapped stolen base potential here, as his career-high is only five stolen bases. He finished with a .302 BA/.353 OBP/.524 SLG slash line with 15 HR and four steals in only 413 PA. His season was cut short by a leg injury in early August. The shortened season would obviously increase Dahl’s chances of staying on the field, making him a more appealing option at OF.

Entering his age-26 season, Dahl has his best baseball ahead of him. The only issue with him as a player is his injuries. Simply put, when Dahl has been on the field, he has delivered strong production. Hitting in Coors Field is obviously a massive bonus to his fantasy value. This is a player who has legitimate .300 BA/25 HR/15 SB upside, with strong potential in run production due to his team context. Dahl is now healthy with a chip on his shoulder to prove the doubters wrong.

A projected pace of .295 BA, 72 R, 23 HR, 77 RBI, and 4 SB would give Dahl an Expected Draft Value of 116.2, which is 50 picks higher than his 146.7 NFBC ADP. This is a conservative projection, as Dahl should have no problems exceeding those R and RBI totals. Dahl should provide terrific value in 2020.

 

Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox

Year xBA K% Z-Contact% SweetSpot%
2019 0.288 13.0 91.2 33.7

Verdugo primarily spent the 2018 season in the minor leagues, so we’ll only look at his 2019 numbers. This is a terrific contact hitter who has the ability to contend for the BA title, as evidenced by his low 13.0 K% and high 91.2 Z-Contact%. Verdugo also was able to find his sweet spot at a high rate of 33.7%. His move to Fenway Park should pay major dividends for his run production. He’ll also likely be hitting in a better lineup slot since the Red Sox will depend on him more than the Dodgers. This means that Verdugo should set a career high in HR and RBI, as he’ll be hitting in a bandbox with more run-producing opportunities. Verdugo was slated to start the season on the IL with an injured back, but the delayed Opening Day will allow him to start the season in the lineup.

Entering his age-24 season, Verdugo has a clear path to playing time, which is something that he struggled with as a Dodger, due to their substantial depth. In Boston, he will have a chance to become one of the mainstays in the Red Sox lineup. This is a player who is similar to Dahl — a high-contact hitter with some pop and untapped SB potential. He should also have something to prove after the Dodgers messed around with his playing time, ultimately trading him to a new team. This has all of the makings of a career season for Verdugo.

A projected pace of .303 BA, 70 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, and 9 SB would give Verdugo an Expected Draft Value of 142.2, which is 89 picks higher than his 231.87 NFBC ADP. Verdugo will likely put up more R and RBI than this projection, so there’s a decent chance that he returns even more value.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF