Overvalued Closers to Avoid in Fantasy Baseball Drafts - Bust Candidates (2026)

March 5, 2026

Mike's 5 fantasy baseball busts for closers. Avoid these overvalued relief pitchers in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts: Daniel Palencia, Josh Hader, Carlos Estevez, more.

My friends, we have to talk about something we would rather not speak of too often. It's a topic that sends chills up and down the spine, makes us grit our teeth, and at times, reach into the cabinet for pain relievers, and maybe, some antacids.

That topic is bullpens. Anecdotally, over the years, I have learned that this is the most disliked topic in fantasy baseball. Yet, how we choose to handle the bullpen situation in our various leagues can play a huge role in where we finish in that league.

As in any other position group, some closers are overvalued, while others are undervalued. In this piece, we will look at save candidates who are overvalued at this moment, either due to injury, effectiveness, or role issues. Let's jump in. The most important thing to consider is the role, not the skills. All ADP referenced is from NFBC drafts as of February 1.

Josh Hader, Houston Astros

NFBC ADP: 97.3

This choice is nothing against Josh Hader. He has been one of the best closers in the business for years. But he is aging and started spring training with biceps inflammation. Hader has progressed only to playing catch on flat ground, putting his availability for Opening Day in question.

There is some discount already baked into the price, but it is not enough for me. Hader also had a strained shoulder capsule last season. My concern is that he does not seem to have improved after a winter to recuperate.

My thought process is that you need a "guaranteed" 30+ saves from your first closer in most formats. Are you going to get this here? There are just too many bats or starting pitchers at this price tag that I prefer, and the risk with Hader feels high now.

If you gamble on Hader, I would recommend you handcuff Bryan Abreu to him later in your draft. Below, you can see what Hader is capable of when healthy: a tantalizing mix of limiting hard contact with excellent velocity and a 36.9% K%. When healthy, he is among the elite in the game.

How much of a gamble do you want to take with a high draft pick in your league? I will let someone else take this risk in most leagues. In a 12-team league, with an ADP of just before pick 100, you are taking him in round eight. That is a rich cost for a guy who may miss time. The best bet may be to let another player in your league take on this risk.

If you decide to roll the dice on Hader, I would advise you lock in the aforementioned Abreu later in your draft.

Carlos Estevez, Kansas City Royals

NFBC ADP: 104.7

There is value in getting saves even if you do not love the actual pitcher. Estevez is the closer for the Kansas City Royals and has 99 saves over the last three years. While he does not give you the ratio help or strikeout numbers you may prefer, he does get saves. In fact, Estevez led the major leagues last year with 42 saves.

He paired that with a tidy 2.45 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a rather pedestrian 54 strikeouts in 66 innings.

It feels like Estevez could get 30 saves again in 2026, but the ratios will go up, and the strikeouts remain low for a closer. The veteran had a 3.69 xERA in 2025, a 3.67 FIP, but an ugly 4.95 xFIP. A career-low home run rate of 5.2% helped limit the damage, as did a decent 8.2% BB%. This screams regression to me. Estevez begs the question: What are you paying for at closer?

You are paying for saves in most leagues, and he gets them. That being said, you may also like your relievers to help with ratios and strikeouts.

See below. Velocity is not everything to a pitcher; things like experience, guile, and command also play important roles. But the chart below shows a troubling trend: Estevez's velocity is decreasing as he gets older. This could make him susceptible to losing his closer role.

With veteran Lucas Erceg behind him and with playoff hopes on the 2026 horizon, and with the addition of experienced lefty Matt Strahm, how patient will manager Matt Quatraro be with Estevez if he struggles? I think he can keep the job and earn saves, but at what cost to your precious ratios and strikeout totals? The ADP cost is high for a one-category player.

Daniel Palencia, Chicago Cubs

NFBC ADP: 132.8

I know this will be an unpopular take. I have discussed this with other fantasy baseball players, and they have been, at best, lukewarm with my thoughts on Palencia. Many are high on the Cubs' closer, and they should be. He has electric stuff.

But some potentially sobering news: the last time we saw Palencia pitch, he was not closing games for the Cubs in the playoffs. Is the role certain? Manager Craig Counsell says that Palencia is the closer, but the team also signed veteran Hunter Harvey to a $6 million deal this winter. Phil Maton is also here.

The other issue is seen in the box below. Palencia struggled mightily in the second half of the 2025 season. A shoulder issue could have been the culprit, but it was clear that Counsell's confidence in Palencia was shaken down the stretch last season.

At the ADP price of just past pick 125, players are showing us they believe in Palencia as their number one closer. I am not sold.

Dennis Santana, Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP: 164.9

Beware of former journeymen getting an extended opportunity on a bad baseball team that can afford to give him that opportunity. There is no doubt that Santana did well with his opportunity in 2025: four wins, 16 saves (11 in the second half), a 2.18 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 60 strikeouts in 70 innings.

It feels like a forgone conclusion that Santana will get the first nod as closer in 2026. But let's look under the hood a bit. Santana surrendered the highest exit velocities of his career while also lowering his walk rate to 6.3%. That hides a below-average 22.2% K%.

My guess is that he will get saves at least initially, but with an ERA closer to 3.75/4.00. If you are looking at him as your RP2, that is fine. If you wait on closers, I would not be comfortable taking him as my RP1. Yet Santana has the job and could hold on to it if he continues to pitch well. Just know that Pittsburgh could always look at veterans Gregory Soto or Justin Lawrence in this position as well.

Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers

NFBC ADP: 179.2

This isn't a question of stuff or ability, because Uribe is one of the best arms in the game. The question is about his usage. The Brewers also employ talented reliever Trevor Megill, who battled injuries, including a forearm strain in 2025. Who is the closer here? Is it a shared job, where each of Uribe and Megill gets half the opportunities?

Does the more experienced guy, Megill, get the job with the electric Uribe in an eighth-inning role?

Uribe was terrific last season: three wins, seven saves, 37 holds, a 1.67 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts in 75 innings. I love the stuff, and so do you. But manager Pat Murphy recently stated that he won't have defined roles in the bullpen at the start of spring training. It's not a question of skill. His Statcast page below is full of red. He possesses high fastball velocity, a 30.2% K%, a video game-like 2.9% barrel rate, and a 54.3% ground-ball rate.

The skills are clearly omnipresent for Uribe.

Uribe has proven that he is flexible in the bullpen and could easily cover a stopper role, a two-inning fireman job, or the closer spot. That flexibility, while great for the Brewers in real-life baseball, creates uncertainty for us in the fantasy game. At the crux of the issue is this: Megill and Uribe could very well split the role, and based on matchups, one of the Brewers' five bullpen lefties (yes, five) could be in the mix for saves.

At the end of the day, I need the guy who has the job at this cost.

Now, could all this be moot if Megill's forearm starts barking again or if he gets traded? Yes. If that happens, Uribe is clearly in the conversation for one of the top five closers in the game. How much risk are you willing to take with this current role? That's the question.

Selecting closers is fraught with peril. At this time, many fantasy players seem to be trying to obtain one of the so-called top 10 at the position, ensuring a baseline of saves before adding a second speculative pick later. Many players are adding a high-octane reliever as a third speculative pick (think of good pitchers without the role, like Grant Taylor or Robert Suarez).

We know you need fewer saves now to finish in the middle of the pack in your league. Be prudent in your plan for acquiring this important position.

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