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Jackson Sparks identifies top fantasy football best ball sleepers at wide receiver for 2024 fantasy drafts. Which NFL players are best ball sleepers?
The 2o23 NFL season and Super Bowl LVIII are in the past, but fantasy football never ends. Early best ball drafts began quickly after last season concluded, and they will take place all the way up to September when the 2024 campaign begins.
The sleeper suggestions in this article can also be viewed as trade targets in dynasty leagues, as all are either being undervalued or are cheap enough to roll the dice on. ADP data for these players will look far different between now and the next six or seven months, so now is the time to cash in on the discount.
Let's dive into the top wide receiver sleepers for early best ball drafts. Average Draft Position is based on FFPC ADP. Advanced Metrics are via PlayerProfiler.com.
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Amari Cooper - Cleveland Browns
ADP: WR30
Amari Cooper played with four different starting quarterbacks in 2023, and he still finished 17th in PPR fantasy points per game (12.7). Anyone who has rostered Cooper in traditional fantasy leagues knows he is liable to produce several dud performances. In best ball, we should lean into the volatility and chase his spike-week upside. The 29-year-old only caught five touchdowns last year, but produced seven games of at least 12.5 fantasy points and three games with at least 21.1 fantasy points.
In Week 16 against the Houston Texans, he racked up 265 yards and two touchdowns on 11 receptions -- good for 46.0 fantasy points. Should we expect that kind of single-game production ever again? No. But if Deshaun Watson -- who looked to be rounding into form before his shoulder injury -- can stay healthy, Cooper should finally have continuity with his signal-caller.
Browns’ WR Amari Cooper had 11 receptions for a single-game franchise-record 265 yards and two TDs in the Browns’ 36-22 win over Houston. Cooper is the fourth player in NFL history with three career games with at least 200 receiving yards and two TD receptions, joining Don Hutson… pic.twitter.com/pw1fNgqMVz
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 25, 2023
Cleveland does not have a first-round pick in 2024 via the Watson trade with Houston, so it's difficult to envision a scenario where he receives significant target competition. Elijah Moore hasn't been able to rekindle his early-career form, and Cedric Tillman didn't show much of anything in his rookie campaign. Cooper ranked No. 22 in target share (23.6%) and No. 4 in air yards share (42.4%) in his second season with the Browns. Expect the trend to continue.
Cooper has a clear low-end WR1 upside with a WR3 price tag. The Brown are signaling they want to become a more pass-happy offense, and since Nick Chubb is coming off of a significant knee injury -- it is plausible.
Chris Godwin - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: WR35
Mike Evans could hit the open market, but Godwin is underpriced regardless of his status. The 2017 third-round pick finished as the WR30 (half-PRR) in 2023 despite catching just two touchdowns. He has posted at least 1,000 receiving yards and finished as a top-30 fantasy wideout in four of his last five seasons. He was limited to 12 games in 2020, but was on pace to do it that year.
With Baker Mayfield at the helm, Godwin ranked 15th in receptions (83), 10th in EPA (+69.1), second in total routes wins (302), and eighth in route win rate (55.1%). Mayfield is expected to remain in Tampa Bay, and Godwin still has plenty of juice entering his age-28 season.
If Evans leaves via free agency, Godwin should smash this ADP. If not, he should be expected to beat it by at least a few spots. His man-beating play style should make him quarterback-proof if Mayfield is surprisingly not retained.
Marquise Brown - Free Agent
ADP: WR49
The dream scenario is Hollywood Brown landing somewhere like Buffalo, Kansas City, or Los Angeles (Chargers), but at his WR49 price tag, he's a calculated risk to take ahead of free agency. The former first-round pick had a disastrous season in 2023, but he only played in three games alongside Kyler Murray. He was dealing with an injury or catching passes from Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune otherwise. Still, he registered a 22.8% target share and finished as the WR49 in fantasy points per game. This is precisely where he's being drafted.
In 2021 with the Baltimore Ravens, he finished 21st in fantasy points per game (14.1). In 2022 with Arizona, he finished 27th in fantasy points per game (13.0). He's unlikely to be a fantasy WR1 or WR2 anywhere he lands, but he's being priced as a WR5 despite his big-play skill set and history of WR2 and WR3 production.
Hollywood, Arizona
📺: #CINvsAZ on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/LxW25sxPWA pic.twitter.com/J95zcqbjSc— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2023
He'll only be 27 when the 2024 season kicks off, so we shouldn't have to worry about his abilities falling off a cliff. At this point in the draft, it's about finding solid values with WR1 upside in any given week. Brown checks the boxes. He was once a first-round pick, he was traded for a first-round pick, and he has a 1,000-yard season on his resume.
Khalil Shakir - Buffalo Bills
ADP: WR53
Make no mistake, Shakir hasn't had juicy production through his first two NFL seasons, but he was a solid contributor in Josh Allen's passing offense with 39 receptions for 611 yards and two scores in 2023. He finished as the WR61 in half-PPR formats despite ranking 88th in snap share (53.8). More importantly, Allen knows how to get him the ball. Shakir ranked No. 1 among receivers in target quality rating (7.40) and catchable target rate (95.6%). He also placed first in yards per target (13.6) and 33rd in yards per route run (1.93).
Simple logic should tell us he would become a solid fantasy contributor with a larger role, but we can't get too ahead of ourselves. He could be a case of a small sample trap. That said, Gabe Davis looks to be headed elsewhere in free agency, Stefon Diggs is showing signs of regression, and the Dalton Kincaid hype has likely gone too far. After impressing in the postseason, Shakir should have an enhanced role in a high-powered offense that at least makes him a fringe WR3 candidate with touchdown opportunities.
HOW DID HE NOT GO DOWN?!
What an effort by Khalil Shakir
📺: #PITvsBUF on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/rnjmj1Pg4j pic.twitter.com/M7bifWZrrK— NFL (@NFL) January 16, 2024
Especially in this format where you don't have to know when to start him, the 24-year-old is worth a selection in this range of the draft. It's worth noting a first- or second-round wideout in the 2024 NFL Draft could hamper his upside and value dramatically.
Rashid Shaheed - Restricted Free Agent
ADP: WR57
Through his first two NFL seasons (27 games), Shaheed has hauled in 74 of his 109 targets for 1,207 yards and seven touchdowns. He has averaged a whopping 16.3 yards per reception, which would've ranked seventh in 2023, just behind Gabe Davis and ahead of Mike Evans.
Carr to Shaheed! ⚜️
📺: #NOvsHOU on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/7XCB7FlHOL— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023
This late in the draft, best ball fantasy gamers should be targeting pure spike-week pass-catchers. With the rest of your core team filled out, you should only expect a few usable weeks from your late-round picks. Shaheed is just getting his career started after being an underrated free agent, and he has already established himself as one of the best pure deep threats in the NFL. To help his cause, he has just one career drop so far.
He is a restricted free agent, meaning the Saints are likely to bring him back. However, his skill set can be put to great use on any team with a gunslinging quarterback who will give him a chance down the field. Derek Carr is one of those signal-callers, but there are even better possible landing spots if he does see a change of scenery.
Quentin Johnston - Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: WR65
Quite frankly, there's not much to like about Johnston's rookie season. He was a polarizing prospect out of TCU to begin with, and his 431-yard rookie season gave the doubters reason to celebrate. He failed to produce despite Mike Williams suffering a torn ACL in Week 3, Joshua Palmer missing six games and most of another, and Keenan Allen being held out of the final four games.
Johnston ranked outside the top 60 qualified wideouts in target rate (14.3%), air yards share (18.2%), expected PPR fantasy points per game (8.7), yards per route run (0.92), yards per target (6.4), and true catch rate (88.4%).
What he does have working for him is quarterback Justin Herbert under new proven head coach Jim Harbaugh. Johnston was a first-round pick, so even though there's a new coach and general manager in town, he should be given additional opportunities. The Chargers should address their offensive line in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, so Johnston will have every opportunity to rewrite the narrative surrounding him.
It's hard to imagine him becoming a true No. 1 wide receiver with top-24 fantasy value, but even if he becomes a WR4 with a couple of spike weeks sprinkled into 2024, he's a smart flyer at a WR65 price tag.
Marvin Mims Jr. - Denver Broncos
ADP: WR74
After Mims was selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft as Sean Payton's first draft choice in Denver, the hype grew as 2023 fantasy drafts approached. However, he caught just 22 passes for 377 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown in his debut season. He didn't catch enough passes to qualify, but his 17.1 yards per reception would have ranked fifth in the league and just ahead of DK Metcalf.
The 21-year-old has a strong prospect profile with over 1,700 yards in his final two collegiate seasons, and he averaged over 20 yards per reception in each of his final two years at Oklahoma. He's another player on this list with deep-threat juice, and his ability on special teams means the organization won't give up on him early.
The perfect moon ball from Russ! He finds the rookie Marvin Mims for a TD.
📺: #WASvsDEN on CBS⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/FhXtx7w3wW pic.twitter.com/ij3y2lDs2u
— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2023
With Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton continuing to underwhelm, he has every chance to establish himself as the go-to target in Payton's offense. It's unclear who will start at quarterback for the Broncos in 2024, but Mims is dirt cheap to acquire, so that's not a significant concern.
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