Dynasty Risers and Fallers - Stefon Diggs, Tua Tagovailoa, Logan Thomas

January 12, 2021

RosterWatch provides dynasty football league news and updates all offseason, including a weekly look at value risers and fallers. This time, we look at QB Tua Tagovailoa, TE Logan Thomas, and WR Stefon Diggs.

Each week this column will provide you with movement in the RosterWatch Dynasty Rankings. We will highlight players who have gained or lost value recently.

Tracking these player value trends assists dynasty players in identifying opportunities to improve their rosters, as the landscape of the market is ever-changing.

This column was written by Alan Seslowsky (@alanseslowksy) and provided to RotoBaller by our friends at RosterWatch.

Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)

Age: 27
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank WR14
Updated Rank WR11

If we look back to the Spring of 2020, Stefon Diggs’ dynasty startup ADP was in the 6th round of Single-QB leagues and round 8 of Superflex formats. Fast forward to December of 2020, Diggs was on a lot of successful fantasy teams this year. Diggs showed up big in the fantasy playoffs. In Weeks 14-16, he averaged over 30 PPR fantasy points per game, including 44 in the fantasy finals. Along with finishing as the WR3 overall on the season, Diggs was the WR1 for the fantasy playoffs. This is likely not an aberration.

There was little doubt Stefon Diggs was one of the most talented WRs in the league before the 2020 season. He needed a better QB fit to unlock his upside. Josh Allen’s ascension to one of the best young QBs in the league, vaults Diggs up the dynasty rankings. The Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs connection should be in place for the next few years while they are both at the peak of their powers. Even at Diggs’ updated ranking of WR11, he still may be under-valued. RosterWatch would draft Diggs (age 27) over players like Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, and DJ Moore.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)

Age: 22
Movement: Falling
Previous Rank QB7
Updated Rank QB13

“Tank for Tua” was a popular battle-cry in the NFL during the 2018 NCAA season. Tua’s season-ending injury in 2019 at Alabama along with the meteoric rise of Joe Burrow, then of LSU, muddied his professional outlook atop the QB board. Tua Tagovailoa vs Justin Herbert was lightly debated in the summer of 2020, but Tagovailoa was still considered the favorite to get drafted ahead of Herbert in the 2020 draft. Herbert, of course, looks like a fantasy superstar and did right from the get-go. Tagovailoa has been inconsistent in his handful of starts.

Those who are proponents of Tagovailoa are quick to point to him coming off an injury, playing with an average set of weapons in Miami. The problem is that Ryan Fitzpatrick has been able to produce under those same set of circumstances. Tagovailoa will undoubtedly be Miami’s 2021 starter, but there is more risk with him than we realized after adding in his inconsistent performances as a data point. Once thought of as a top-24 superflex pick in dynasty startup drafts, he is best left to the fourth or fifth round of drafts as a high-end QB2 with upside. If Tagovailoa’s ADP is in the top 36, RosterWatch advises passing for safer options later in your draft. 

Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)

Age: 29
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank TE18
Updated Rank TE12

Logan Thomas finished as the TE5 in 2020. He is a late bloomer at age 29, since he was drafted into the NFL as a QB in 2014 by the Arizona Cardinals. Thomas was a 4th round selection, 120th overall, which usually means a player is a long shot to see any meaningful fantasy production. Having become a failed QB prospect, Logan Thomas finally committed to a position switch to TE in 2016. Thomas was not a consensus top 20 TE heading into this season, as he was put on the COVID list back in August of 2020.

Once activated, Logan Thomas did garner a handful of fantasy-relevant games, but none were projectable. Projectable fantasy starts come with players performing at consistent week to week levels that allow us to confidently start them in our fantasy lineups. It wasn’t until after week 7, that Thomas put together back to back fantasy-relevant games. The Washington Football Team headed into their bye, and fantasy managers with Thomas rostered were proactively using him in week 9. Logan Thomas severely underperformed again, and he was put back on many fantasy benches. Once the money weeks of fantasy started in week 12, Logan Thomas showed up in a major way and has not disappointed since. He is the TE3 over that time span, only behind Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. 

We have seen enough consistent production down the stretch from Thomas to rank him as a top 12 tight end in dynasty startup drafts. Though he is age 29, tight ends tend to age better than other positions making him projectable for the next couple of seasons. If you miss out on the elite tier of tight ends, Logan Thomas is a sharp target to fill the position in 2021 dynasty startups. In some ways, he is on a similar trajectory to Darren Waller. 

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