Dynasty Price Check - Tee Higgins

Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins' fantasy football value in dynasty leagues heading into 2023. Mitch Blatt evaluates Higgins and ranks him among dynasty wide receivers.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins has the talent to be a top receiving option on many NFL teams and showed it last season. When Ja'Marr Chase missed four games in the middle of the season, Higgins caught 26 passes for 371 yards and two touchdowns while drawing the opponents' top cornerbacks.

Higgins' rookie contract expires after this season. Will he stay with the Bengals and continue being the solid second option, taking advantage of Chase drawing coverage? Or will he go somewhere he can get more targets?

What should dynasty managers be hoping for? What is Tee Higgins' dynasty value going into 2023 and beyond?

Tee Higgins Background

Tee Higgins led the Clemson Tigers in receiving yards in 2019, Trevor Lawrence's sophomore season. He caught 25 touchdowns in 2018 and 2019, leading the ACC in receiving touchdowns in both seasons. The Bengals drafted him with the No. 33 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He has been incredibly consistent in each of his three NFL seasons.

In 2020, Joe Burrow's rookie season, Higgins led the Bengals in receiving yards. He was targeted 108 times and caught 67 passes for 908 yards and six touchdowns. The following season, the Bengals drafted Ja'Marr Chase in the first round. 

Despite being displaced as Cincinnati's WR1, Higgins had an even better second season. He was targeted the same number of times but caught a higher percentage of passes while his average target depth increased. Additionally, his reception total increased to 74, while his yardage increased to 1,091 with another six touchdowns. Last season, Higgins put up almost the same numbers as he did in 2021; while his yardage slightly decreased, he scored one more touchdown. 

Higgins had his best stretch in the middle of the season in the games Chase missed. If he were to maintain that production for an entire season as a WR1 on another team, that would mean catching 110 passes for 1,577 yards and eight or nine touchdowns over 17 games. 

Higgins almost certainly wouldn't be able to keep up that pace for an entire season. This is not just due to the four-game sample size being small but because he would likely see a quarterback downgrade if he left Burrow for a WR-needy team. It would be within the realm of possibilities for Higgins to gain between 1,200 to 1,400 yards per season in the right situation.

2023 Dynasty Outlook

Tee Higgins is the WR12 in RotoBaller's early half-PPR WR rankings and WR14 in the best ball rankings. However, that's a little too low for him in best ball, as he should be ranked higher in that format than he should in managed leagues. Higgins has some real stinkers sometimes when Chase or Tyler Boyd are the featured receivers for the day. He has previously finished weeks as the WR80, WR116, and WR105 during the 2022 season. But Higgins can boom in that offense with Burrow at QB and Chase drawing coverage.

As mentioned previously, Higgins has been very consistent, especially over the past two seasons. He promises the same predictable 70-80 catches for 1,000-1,100 yards and 6-8 touchdowns this season. Higgins will probably finish on the higher end of those ranges if you factor in his and Burrow's development and the improvement of the Bengals' offensive line with the addition of Orlando Brown Jr.

If Higgins remains with the Bengals, you can project WR10-20 finishes going forward for about five more years before he hits age 29. But what if he leaves after this season? Can the Bengals keep all three of Higgins, Chase, and Burrow?

PFF's Brad Spielberger predicts Higgins would earn $24.25 million per year. Spotrac projects him at $20.1 million per year based on his production (so it is probably undervaluing him, given the context of his role). Then you add market-setting contracts for Chase ($30 million or more per year) and Burrow ($52 million), and you have well over $102 million tied up in just the top two receivers and quarterback.

You can move that money around in some ways. Even Patrick Mahomes, who is on a 10-year deal, is set to count $47 million against the cap next season. There's only so much a team like the Bengals can do. 

Both Tee Higgins and the Bengals' front office want him to be back in stripes for next year and beyond. We'll see if they can do it.

If Higgins leaves Cincinnati, his most likely destinations are teams that do not currently have a WR1 or have inadequate wideouts. And because Burrow is a top-three quarterback, any team Higgins joins would likely be worse at that position. Additionally, Higgins' new team could even have a quarterback who is below average, as he may be signed by a squad that is currently rebuilding and needs to make a splash.

Potential destinations that fit the bill include the Colts, Panthers, Texans, and the Titans. Each of them lacks a proven WR1 and has a highly-drafted rookie QB on their roster. If the rookies they drafted pan out, Higgins could rocket into the top tier of fantasy receivers. If not, he will still probably see more volume but less efficiency.

What's Tee Higgins' Trade Value in 2023?

Tee Higgins' ADP and trade value has remained consistent over the past year. He was up to WR5 on Keep Trade Cut's rankings but slipped to WR13 after only being targeted twice in Cincinnati's Week 1 loss. Then Higgins rose to around WR11 and stayed at WR8 for a while after the conclusion of the 2022 season. 

Higgins' current value is similar to other rising stars Bryce Young, DeVonta Smith, Drake London, and Jahmyr Gibbs. However, there is a relatively big drop-off in value from WR8 Chris Olave to Tee Higgins at WR9. This is even though Higgins has a much better quarterback situation this season and possibly for the long-term if he stays in Cincy. 

Higgins and two first-round rookie draft picks were traded for Travis Etienne and a first-round pick in one league, which seems like a steal for the side getting Higgins and an extra pick. Additionally, Higgins and a backup running back were traded for Travis Kelce, Alec Pierce, and a second-round pick.

Given Kelce's age, that trade would only be viable for a win-now team in a TE-premium league. And in another swap, a manager in a Superflex league traded Higgins and major draft capital for Deshaun Watson and a couple of thirds.

Tee Higgins Recommendation

Higgins should be valued at about WR10, as he is expected to produce WR10-15 numbers in Cincinnati for multiple years if he stays. He could even be expected to produce as high as WR6 or so in 2024 or 2025 if he were to end up as a WR1 in a great situation. On the other hand, if he ends up in a terrible spot, he could see fewer catchable passes coming his way and fewer scoring opportunities. Higgins could fall to the WR24-WR30 range in a bad situation.

Higgins in Cincinnati is a consistent quality WR2 and fringe WR1. Outside of the Queen City, he has more volatility but a higher upside.

If you have Higgins, you should hold and only shop him if his value rises dramatically following trade rumors. If you don't have Higgins and are looking for a wide receiver, you can probably find cheaper upside receivers. 

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