RADIO
Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson has long been a good fantasy asset, after his first year in Chicago, Richard King takes a look at his value in dynasty leagues for the 2019 fantasy football season. Should you buy him or sell him as a long-term prospect?
When it comes to dynasty football leagues, you know there is no offseason. Without the in-season worries of setting lineups and waiver wire claims, dynasty league enthusiasts can focus their efforts on making trades to improve their teams and preparing for rookie drafts. Offseason narratives can be difficult to navigate, but we are here to help!
Today's column will take a look at Allen Robinson. We will start off with an overview of Robinson's recent history and then take a look at analyzing his value in dynasty leagues. Then, we will propose some possible trades to give you some ideas for either buying or selling him.
For all discussions regarding their dynasty value, let's assume you are playing in a 12-team, one-quarterback dynasty league with 0.5 PPR scoring. As always, player values can shift quickly in dynasty leagues so be sure to stay on top of the NFL news cycle when proposing trades.
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Overview
Allen Robinson
Team: Chicago Bears
College: Penn State
Age: 25
Height/Weight: 6'3", 211 pounds
2014 NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 61 overall
Robinson was selected in the second round as the 11th receiver off the board, and the second selection for Jacksonville behind Marqise Lee (selected earlier in the second round). The Jaguars opened the season with Robinson down the depth chart behind Marqise Lee, Cecil Shorts, and Allen Hurns. Robinson managed to see some game time though, playing in 10 games and finishing the season with 48 receptions for 548 yards and two touchdowns.
The following season, Robinson was named a regular season starter, alongside Hurns. Robinson took the opportunity to shine, finishing with 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. In doing so, Robinson became the first Jaguars' receiver since 2005 to have over 1,000 yards in a single season. Robinson was named as a first alternate to the Pro Bowl that year and replaced Calvin Johnson (who couldn't participate due to injury). Hurns too was impressive in 2015 with both players ending the season with over 60 receptions, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Coming into 2016, expectations were higher for the pass catcher, but the team struggled to win games and move the ball, and Robinson finished the season with 73 receptions for 883 yards and six touchdowns. 2017 was his last season in Jacksonville and ended in the first game with a torn ACL.
In free agency in 2018, the Chicago Bears moved to sign Robinson to a three-year $42 million contract. On a Bears offense with new coach Matt Nagy on board with young quarterback Mitch Trubisky, Robinson was able to bounce back from his previous struggles to end the season with 55 receptions for 754 yards and four touchdowns. The Bears went on to win the NFC North, and in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Robinson set two postseason records catching 10 receptions for 143 yards.
Robinson has typically been the primary receiver in the offenses that he has been involved in, with a target share of over 20% each season since 2015 (excluding the single game played in 2017). Robinson has a team-high 12.1 average depth of target.
Dynasty Value
Robinson is still just 25 and so has plenty of time in the NFL. The Bears' offense was stale under the previous coach John Fox, but under Nagy has become far more effective. Robinson is the primary option for Trubisky, while the team has a good balance with running back Tarik Cohen and recent signing Mike Davis. Robinson's value is quite high at the moment, but I currently think that he is being priced where I would expect him given the offense that he is in.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Robinson is being drafted in the back of the 4th round around receivers like Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley and previous Chicago resident Alshon Jeffrey.
Possible Trades
Robinson would be worth an early pick in rookie drafts, likely a top-four first-round pick, or multiple later-round picks.
Given his value at the wide receiver position if I was looking to move him on to obtain a running back I would be targeting an effective starting running back such as Kerryon Johnson, Marlon Mack or Sony Michel. Adding a bit to your side of the trade (either a pick or another player) could help push up the value and get a player such as Aaron Jones, David Johnson or possibly James Conner.
Robinson's value in wide receivers means that you are unlikely to be moving him for a player of a similar value, but as with the above-adding something to your side of the trade could allow you to be able to pick up players like Keenan Allen, or Stefon Diggs.
Conclusion
Robinson is a valuable wide receiver and an asset to your roster. I would likely be keeping him unless I was hurting at running back and was able to jump up a tier to get a highly effective running back.
