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Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It's great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! In what's been a recurring theme this season, we once again saw a "can't miss" DFS spot underperform in Week 11, with the DAL vs KC game largely disappointing. It was a great reminder that it's ok - and even smart - to sometimes go "against the grain" in GPP formats.
As we turn our attention to the Week 12 slate, it doesn't appear that there's one matchup that will soak up a huge percentage of ownership like DAL vs KC did last week. However, there are multiple game environments that offer the potential for DFS fireworks that we'll touch on in this week's article!
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 12. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 12 DFS Picks
Jalen Hurts - PHI @ NYG ($7,300)
While there is lots of QB star power on this Week 12 slate, it's fairly easy to poke holes in many of the elite names when you start digging into their matchups. There's no such issue with Jalen Hurts, a player with a DFS floor that rivals or exceeds that of the majority of star QBs available this week. The Philly signal caller's rushing ability remains a coveted DFS asset and that's especially true on a Week 12 slate that primarily consists of pocket passers.
Hurts leads all NFL quarterbacks with eight rushing TDs and stands second in rushing yards with 616. The Eagles have shown a desire to go run-heavy over their last three games, but that philosophy has led to rushing attempts of 18/13/10 for Hurts. If his usage on the ground remains consistent, he should have no trouble finding success in a matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 12 DFS Picks
Joe Mixon - PIT @ CIN ($7,500)
Listen, Jonathan Taylor is awesome and proved he's capable of smashing against anyone last week in Buffalo. But he's again faced with a brutal task in Week 12 against a rugged Bucs run-stopping unit that is allowing just a minuscule 3.51 yards per carry. Despite the tough matchup, we can expect Taylor's ownership to be elevated due to his Week 11 explosion.
Meanwhile, I feel as though Joe Mixon will once again go largely overlooked at $7.5k, despite posting 25 or more DK points in four of Cincy's last five games. Mixon is averaging a massive 20.7 total opportunities per game on the season, the seventh-most in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers brand name might inspire fear when it comes to deploying RBs against them, but the numbers point to a unit that is beatable on the ground. Pittsburgh is allowing a whopping 4.69 yards per carry - the fourth-most in the league - and their 6.78 yards per target allowed to opposing RBs also ranks near the bottom of the NFL.
Miles Sanders - PHI @ NYG ($5,100)
We've all probably been burned by Miles Sanders at some point, which makes it hard to keep pulling the trigger on the Eagles' hard-luck back. However, I'm willing to get hurt again on this slate, as Philly's newfound dedication to the run, coupled with Sanders' affordable price tag and a matchup against the Giants, makes him tough to ignore.
Philly ranks first in the NFL in team rushing play percentage (64.65%) over their last three and surprisingly handed Sanders a season-high 16 carries in his first game back from a prolonged stint on the IR, which he converted to 96 rushing yards. While it is scary to trust this Philly coaching staff, we can assume that they will be willing to continue attacking on the ground against a New York Giants squad that stands 30th in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA and has allowed an average of 4.51 yards per carry to opposing backs.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 12 DFS Picks
Deebo Samuel - MIN @ SF ($7,900)
With the type of season he's put together, it's fair to wonder why Deebo Samuel hasn't been listed in this article every week. Samuel has been the one true mainstay for a Niners offense that has dealt with both injuries and inconsistency throughout the year. He's been a usage monster, averaging 8.8 targets per game on the season and a massive 30.1% target share in San Fran's passing attack, the third-highest in the NFL.
With the Niners' backfield extremely banged up, we've even seen Samuel running the football over the last two weeks, tallying 115 yards and two TDs on 13 carries. He'll bring his dynamic bag of tricks into a Week 12 matchup against a Minnesota Vikings defense that allowed 372 passing yards last week and is allowing nearly nine yards per target to opposing WRs on the season.
Michael Pittman Jr. - TB @ IND ($5,600)
We know the Colts want to run this offense through Jonathan Taylor, but they might eventually be forced to the air in this Week 12 matchup against what's a legitimate pass-funnel defense. While Tampa Bay hasn't been horrible against the pass by any stretch - 17th in the NFL in yards per pass allowed - their brick-wall run defense - second in the NFL in yards allowed per carry at just 3.51 - makes throwing the ball against the Bucs seem like a great option.
If the Colts are indeed eventually forced to pass, the best bet for a slate-breaking type of outing is Michael Pittman Jr. The second-year wideout has been the clear alpha of the Indy passing attack this season. He dominates in both team target share (22.6%) and team Air Yards share (31.6%). That usage has led to a rock-solid average of 15.4 DK points per game for Pittman this season, as well as four outings with 20 or more DK points.
Van Jefferson - LAR @ GB ($4,900)
With the Rams entering Week 12 after suffering back-to-back beatdowns and a subsequent bye week, it is fair to wonder - outside of Cooper Kupp - how many pieces of this L.A. offense will garner much DFS attention. However, let's not forget that this is an offense that scored at least 20 points in every game over the first eight weeks of the season, has a 61.12% pass play rate, and will be without Robert Woods - a player that was garnering a 22.1% share of the Rams targets - going forward.
Enter Van Jefferson, a second-year downfield threat that will inherit Woods' role in this offense. Jefferson boasts an attractive aDOT 0f 13.57 on the year and received seven targets in L.A.'s first game without Woods in Week 10. He comes with a season-high $4.9k price tag this week (which should keep his ownership depressed) but he profiles as one of the strongest sub-$5k GPP plays on the slate that no one seems to be talking about.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 12 DFS Picks
George Kittle - MIN @ SF ($6,400)
After an extensive stint on IR, George Kittle has returned to the Niners' lineup and is once again playing with the mad-dog style that we've grown accustomed to in recent years. He's been hyper-efficient since his return, catching 15 of 19 targets for 185 yards and 3 TDs over San Fran's last three. The Niners have held comfortable leads in each of the last two weeks, but we can expect an improved game environment for Kittle and the passing attack against Minnesota in a matchup that carries both a tight point spread and high Over/Under.
Rob Gronkowski - TB @ IND ($4,400)
We touched on some reasons why this is one of the more intriguing matchups on the slate when discussing Indy's Michael Pittman Jr., the chief of which being that it is the only Week 12 game with an Over/Under that's currently set at over 50 points. Rob Gronkowski has spent the better part of the year on IR, but looked good against the Giants on Monday Night Football, playing 46 offensive snaps and grabbing six of eight targets for 71 yards. We know what the combination of Brady and Gronk are capable of and they'll get a chance to make their mark against a Colts defense that ranks bottom-five in the NFL in receptions, yards, and TDs allowed to the TE position.
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