August 31, 2017

Running back values and draft targets in the later rounds of fantasy football drafts. Tom Bellucco discusses three RBs who have huge upside at their 2017 ADP.

Hey RotoBallers! Sadly, I've been so busy writing about and playing fantasy baseball that football research has been put on the back burner. How dare I! Anyways, this is the second of four articles this week focusing on the two most exciting positions: running backs and wide receivers. I'll try to answer the question that everyone wants to know: Who's that breakout player I need to have?

I'll give myself three tries at this in each article, and I'll let you in on who I'm targeting in the middle to late rounds of drafts in hopes of capturing the next David Johnson, Jay Ajayi, Michael Thomas, or Doug Baldwin.

In this space, we'll look specifically at the potential breakout running backs in the late rounds (10th round or later in Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP), and I'll explain why these three backs are worth throwing a dart at in hopes they reach the coveted upside that well all look for. If you're interested in looking at my mid-round running back selections, check them out here.

Value Running Backs - Rounds 10 or Later

Jamaal Williams (RB, GB) - 129.3 FP ADP

Let's start by drafting a pass-catching back for one of the most pass-happy, score-happy, fantasy-friendly offenses in the league, shall we? Jamaal Williams is clearly behind Ty Montgomery on the Packers' depth chart, yes. But hear me out here.

We heard of Montgomery's sickle cell trait issues towards the end of last year. While there haven't been any concerns so far this offseason, that's not something that just goes away all the time. Not to mention, it wouldn't be all that surprising if a skinny wide receiver turned running back were to get injured after a few too many hits in a full-season role. So yes, this might be a long shot on a clear backup, but is it really all that much of a stretch to predict Williams getting forced into a big role at some point this year?

The BYU product showed his ability to be serviceable as Aaron Rodgers' compliment in the backfield, racking up 46 yards on three catches in his most recent preseason game. The opportunity isn't quite there yet for Williams to be relevant in fantasy, but there's only one door that has to open, and the skill seems to be more than there, especially in PPR leagues. I'll gravitate here before I go with the likes of Darren Sproles, Shane Vereen, or CJ Prosise in more crowded situations.

Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, TB) - 134.2 FP ADP

Spoiler alert! No, I'm not giving away the ending of Game of Thrones Season 7 (I'm still on Season 4, so let's stop talking about it). The spoiler is that I had Doug Martin in my mid-round article just one day ago. And yes, I still am targeting Jacquizz Rodgers in this range as well.

For one, Rodgers will likely get the bulk of Tampa Bay's running back touches during the first three weeks thanks to Martin's suspension. For those who don't know, Charles Sims has not been all that impressive thus far, and Rodgers has been that and more. Yes, Martin may make Rodgers completely irrelevant by Week 4, but we've seen the Muscle Hamster get stuck in his stationary wheel before.

We saw the dynamic pass-catching skill and usage from Rodgers last year to believe in his upside if given the opportunity. He may even outplay Sims so much in the first few weeks that he'll take over the pass-catching role when Martin returns. If that wasn't enough, imagine how much value this pick would create if Martin were to get hurt in Week 5.

If your bench spots allow it and you have the stomach to roster multiple Buccaneers running backs, I think taking both Rodgers and Martin is a great strategy. In fact, I've already done it at least once in my leagues by the time you read this sentence. Give the 'Quizz a look in the late rounds.

Jamaal Charles (RB, DEN) - 149.4 FP ADP

I took the once-first round talent Jamaal Charles in the 13th round of a 12-team PPR league last night, and I had to go take a bath afterwards because I felt so dirty. I won't lie, I probably wouldn't have made the pick if Charles hadn't gone out and gained 42 yards on six touches, officially making the Broncos' roster the other night. But hey, for every 10 speculations there's one deep, deep sleeper in the making.

C.J. Anderson is known to miss a couple of games each year, which is nice, but Devontae Booker is there too. And remember, Charles barely made the team. So, yes I get it, this is a long, long reach to say the least. Still, he should get a few backfield screen touches at the bare minimum in the first few games, and an impressive showing wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world.

In reality, what else are you going to do with your 12th or 13th pick? Take Robert Woods or Travis Benjamin in crowded situations? We know how much the running back landscape can change in an instant, so you might as well spend that fourth or fifth bench spot on a guy who may make a difference when injuries start ruining fantasy seasons in Week 3, at least until the bye weeks begin.

Remember to check out the next two articles for more mid-to-late round breakouts at wide receiver. You can find me on Twitter @BellRoto. Good luck in your drafts!

More ADP Values & Draft Analysis

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