Dollar-Day Targets - Salary Cap League Values

March 21, 2021

Todd Salem identifies $1 pitchers and hitters to target during dollar days in salary cap (auction) drafts for 2021 fantasy baseball leagues.

Players who go for just $1 in salary cap leagues are guys who lack outside confidence. Not a lot of managers trust that they will be useful on a roster. In standard leagues, many of these players will go entirely undrafted and float around the waiver wire until they produce enough to be picked up or become forgotten about.

This is understandable. 333 players will cost more than one dollar (on average, according to NFBC ADP.) In a 12-team league with 27-man rosters, only 324 players are selected. So actually, numerically speaking, all of the one-dollar players will go undrafted on average.

But they aren't all worth ignoring. You just have to know which to take a longer look at. In the most basic of terms, they fit into the category of high-upside, high-risk. We don't really care about the risk of failure since none are being counted on to fill a daily spot on a team. Instead, these are shots that a guy could become someone worth hanging onto for the long haul.

Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

One of the highest upside plays among dollar-day targets, Rutschman is expected to begin the year in the minors. Baltimore has two capable, if underwhelming, Major League catching options in Pedro Severino and Chance Sisco. But it is just a matter of time before Rutschman scoots them both out of the way and becomes the Orioles' everyday catcher. The question becomes how long that time will last.

Rutschman, 23 years old, has yet to play above A-ball. He has shown a great eye at the plate and possesses elite power, especially for the position. But there is still much seasoning that needs to come. He sat out all of 2020 to boot, like most of the minor leagues. Adding him to a 2021 fantasy team really depends on a manager's patience and bench length. If he is called up this season, he immediately becomes one of the more intriguing plays at the weakest position in the sport.

Where each of Baltimore's ML catchers currently rank in fantasy, according to Fantasy Pros

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

It is easy to forget about Mikolas. He missed all of 2020 following shoulder surgery. It is also easy to dismiss him when healthy. He doesn't miss bats like the elite pitchers of today. But he isn't being drafted like an elite strikeout machine. He's going for $1 and could provide high-level production in the other standard scoring categories outside of K's.

Before getting hurt, he was quite a workhorse, starting 32 games in each of 2018 and 2019. Both seasons provided minuscule walk rates: 3.6 percent and 4.2 percent respectively. He didn't miss as many barrels in '19 as the year prior, which led to a higher HR/FB rate and a FIP roughly a run higher. His xFIP, though, stayed remarkably similar, which gives us an inkling of what a standard Mikolas season will deliver.

If his shoulder isn't back to full health, none of that matters. (He is currently experiencing soreness.) But if he's slotted into the St. Louis rotation in April, 175 innings with good peripherals and double-digit wins are on the horizon. That just isn't something that normally comes from a $1 target.

The Closer Collective

As mentioned in the article on pitchers to target under $5, closers are a dime a dozen. Good ones become bad; bad ones good. Teams change their minds at the drop of a third strike. It isn't worth paying up for the position. However, it isn't smart to ignore the category either, especially in roto leagues. Even if you plan on grabbing and dashing through closers as the season progresses, coming away with a couple from the draft will prevent falling behind in the category. That brings us to $1 pitchers who have a very good chance of closing right from Opening Day.

• Sean Doolittle - the new Cincinnati Red only has Amir Garrett standing in his way and the advantage of "closer experience."
• Scott Oberg - he missed 2020 for thoracic outlet surgery but was a rare premiere arm in the Colorado pen in each of the previous two seasons. Only Daniel Bard could steal saves from him in the early going.
• Gregory Soto - there are a few arms that could garner the closer title in Detroit in April, including Soto. He just happens to have the best stuff, if he can cut down on the free passes.

The Darn Good Hitters

Not every good hitter gets to play every day. Some are liabilities on defense. Perhaps they aren't good baserunners, or show a huge platoon split. Only the rare hitters are good enough in all aspects to show no clear flaws. No matter; we are only spending $1 auction dollar here. With hitters like Corey Dickerson (OF, MIA), Mike Brosseau ( IF/OF, TB), and Yandy Diaz (CI, TB), the bats are too good to ignore, even if they won't see more than 350 at-bats.

Dickerson is projected to hit leadoff against righties in a pretty good lineup. That's as good a spot as we could ask for, especially coming off a disappointing 2020. He hit a career-high 52.2 percent of his balls on the ground, with a career-low 11.7 launch angle. Getting the rise back on his swing would go toward replicating the great years he had prior. His wOBA only dropped below .340 one time between his first full season and 2019. His isolated power remained above .200 every year but one in that same time frame. Dickerson became a spray hitter last year, but that isn't his normal game in a normal year.

Brosseau and Diaz are going to find it harder to come by at-bats because of the nature of the Tampa Bay offense. Their flexibility will help get them in the lineup, though. Brosseau is likely only going to play against lefties. His career OPS against lefties is a scintillating .939; against righties, it's .742. The fact that he has played all of 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH in his two-year career speaks to how desperate the Rays are to get him those at-bats.

The story is similar for Diaz, though he has played more often against righties and doesn't have as pronounced a split. Although, that's really because he isn't as good against lefties as Brosseau has been. Diaz is also flexible in the field. Though, again, not as versatile as his teammate. The likeliest outcome for the Tampa offense would seem to slot Diaz into a timeshare at 1B and 3B (with Ji-Man Choi and Joey Wendle respectively), while Brosseau becomes a utility player that rotates all over. That doesn't leave a ton of at-bats for either one, even eating into each other's playing time. And yet, at $1, their skill with the stick makes it worth the gamble that they could iron out even more at-bats as the season goes on.

Myles Straw, Houston Astros

The case for Straw is simple. He has tremendous steals upside and what appears to be a clear role as the everyday center fielder for Houston. Dusty Baker even indicated he has a chance to bat leadoff. That about wraps it up.

Straw's hit tool may not be good enough to stick, so it may feel like just a matter of time before he has to be taken out of the lineup. But there aren't a ton of other options for the Astros in center. With steals so hard to come by, putting up with whatever slash line Straw delivers should be worth it.

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