Early-Round Fantasy Baseball Busts? Potential Landmines for Drafts (2026)

March 4, 2026

Scott Engel's top fantasy baseball busts to avoid in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. These early-round overvalued picks are his fantasy baseball avoids for 2026 drafts.

When you are building the foundation of a fantasy baseball team in the earliest rounds, upside, a very-overused fantasy term, always figures into the mix. But it should also be a goal to target players with high statistical floors if possible. Established standouts such as Jose Ramirez and Manny Machado are certainly safe earlier picks or very worthy of their auction prices.

But the players featured here are the type of bigger risks you might be taking in the earlier rounds or with a healthy percentage of an auction budget. The numerical bottom may be more likely to fall out on the hitters covered in this article. At the very least, I don’t feel comfortable drafting them at their current Average Draft Positions or auction prices.

We go in-depth on a trio of hitters here, two who will give you many homers and steals, but do have some notable flaws in their approaches. One slugger included in this article is a proven home run leader, but a change in address and venues might hinder his first campaign in a new uniform. All ADP referenced is from NFBC drafts as of February 15.

Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B/3B, New York Yankees

NFBC ADP - 20.4

There is no doubt that Chisholm makes the most of every time he can get on base with a hit or opportunity to touch ‘em all. The Yankees’ star is coming off the first 30-30 season of his career. And if you ask the confident Chisholm what he can do in 2026, he aims to eclipse his 2025 production.

The flashy infielder made headlines this spring already when he boasted that he could deliver a 50/50 campaign this upcoming season. He certainly has the incentive to better last season’s output, as he is heading into a contract season on the American League’s biggest stage.

“I’m going to go shoot for the stars, and if I miss, I’m going to end up on the moon,” Chisholm said, per the New York Post. Chisholm is reportedly seeking an 8-10-year contract worth $35 million in free agency following this season.

ATC projections don’t quite jibe with the outlook Chisholm presents, as it has him finishing with 28 home runs and 33 stolen bases. Noting his injury history and streakiness, the ex-Marlin might be putting too much pressure on himself and will have to back up his bragging by topping his 2025 output.

Last season, Chisholm finished with a .242 batting average, and ATC has him projected to hit .238 in 2026. Considering his xBA was .234 last season, according to FanGraphs, and it has been under .240 in three consecutive years, I don’t see much of a path to sudden and significant improvement.

The slugging percentage and the xSLG were exactly the same at .481, which indicates that Chisholm might have played at his ceiling as a hitter last season. He also struck out 27.9% of the time, which was up from 24.5 the previous year. Chisholm’s line-drive rate was at a career low 14.3% as he hit more flyballs than ever. So the batting average and on-base percentage (.332) are apparently not going to improve.

You certainly should not overdraft Chisholm in Head-To-Head Points and Rotisserie leagues that use OBP instead of batting average. What you are paying for with Chisholm is the power/speed combo in one package, but the plate discipline isn’t going to suddenly get better, and you will always have to be concerned with his health and inconsistency.

In 2025, Chisholm hit .151 in April and .217 in August. Last season, he dealt with forearm, knee, and shoulder injuries, and in 2024, he battled elbow problems. Chisholm has been saddled with notable injuries in each of the past five seasons.

Sure, you can like Chisholm for the homers in Yankee Stadium and the natural speed, but I simply cannot endorse the trade-off for a low batting average or OBP and the distinct possibility of an annual and impactful injury or injuries at his ADP. I might opt for another power/speed type a few picks earlier or build in those categories through other hitters later on.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. and the @Yankees strike first on #SundayNightBaseball! pic.twitter.com/hK7B5zUJwF

— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2025

Chisholm has always been more about potential excitement, with not enough production to match or enough availability. His profile isn’t going to change, and we might have seen his best output last year. If Chisholm were to conceivably improve, he could be a superstar in New York. But he will always be at least slightly disappointing in real life and for fantasy baseball purposes.

Pete Alonso, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

NFBC ADP - 23.7

First off, let me make something clear. I come from a journalism background and have never let objectivity affect my analysis. Those who know and follow me are aware that I am a lifelong Mets fan, and when seeing my busts article lead with a Yankee and a longtime Met who signed elsewhere, some may think I have a fan-type agenda here.

Let’s put that to rest. I would have included Chisholm if he were still a Marlin, and any personal fan-related feelings I have on Alonso do not belong in my fantasy baseball analysis (just to note, I liked Alonso, but was prepared to see him leave, so I was not upset). So, we move forward after my disclaimer.

Pete Alonso, wearing Orioles orange, on the back pages of the New York tabloids this morning.

"Strawberry can't understand how anyone could leave New York City ... for BALTIMORE!" pic.twitter.com/g1G4BaM97S

— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) February 24, 2026

Forecasting ahead in fantasy baseball, of course, involves much more than looking back at last season. Alonso did have a good final year with the Mets, hitting .278 with 38 home runs and 126 RBI. But he was in a contract year, as he did not get the deal he was looking for during the previous offseason.

In the most recent offseason, Alonso signed a lucrative five-year contract with Baltimore and now heads to the American League as a regular for the first time. Very often, we have seen players struggle and disappoint when they sign new and hefty contracts. Alonso has been inconsistent from season to season throughout his career and could be headed for another statistical dip that might make you regret taking him at the current ADP.

In the two seasons before last year, Alonso hit .240 and .217. In 2025, his hard-hit rate jumped to a career high 54.4%, well over his career mark of 45.8%. He also posted a career-best 18.9% barrel rate, a significant elevation from the career number of 14.9. Yet the Mets were still willing to let him walk away during the offseason, even taking into account his intangible value as a homegrown star.

New York was also fine with letting Alonso test the free-agent market during the previous offseason. With a front office and owner that won’t hesitate to tear down a team if it doesn’t win enough, the Mets have been indicating that they have been fine with moving on from Alonso over the past two offseasons.

While the power has been consistent, the numerical slides over the previous two seasons before 2026 suggest Alonso is somewhat unpredictable from year to year. Now he moves to a new league and needs to get more familiar with opposing pitchers, and will have to play in less familiar ballparks while trying to live up to his new contract.

It won’t be surprising to see Alonso approach 30 homers again, but this is the first-ever season in his career where he must adjust to new environments while continuing to attempt to prove the Orioles made the right call. A tumble back to his pre-2025 batting averages, while also a possible regression in some power, doesn’t make Alonso worth the ADP.

Alonso is more durable than Bryce Harper, but Harper could match Alonso in power while also providing a better batting average, a higher OBP, and even a few bonus steals at an ADP of 46.1

James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP - 32.1

Nothing is as tantalizing as a young, incredibly talented hitter on the rise. But baseball is a game of constant adjustments, and after seeing Wood thrash opposing pitchers for 31 homers in his rookie year, he could face more challenges in his second full season. Those opposing pitchers may adjust in how they approach Wood this season, and there are already obvious holes in his offensive game.

Many fantasy leaguers might take Wood ahead of his current ADP or be willing to get involved in aggressive bidding for his fantasy rights in auction leagues. Wood is just 23 years old, and he can be a boom-or-bust draft pick in 2026 at his current ADP. Last season, Wood led the majors with 221 strikeouts. His GB% of 49.7 ranked ninth in MLB, and he led all hitters in HR/FB% at 30.7, which will certainly not be repeatable.

According to Baseball Savant, Wood tore up fastballs last season, hitting .315 against the pitch with an xBA of .310 and 21 homers. But against breaking pitches, he hit .203 with an xBA of .208, and seven homers. He saw fastballs 47.9% of the time and breaking pitches in 36.1% percent of his at-bats. When he was offered off-speed pitches in 16.0 percent of his at-bats, Wood hit .174 with an xBA of .203 and hit three home runs.

Last summer, Wood looked like a young batter who still needed more seasoning. He hit .188 in July, .245 in August, and hit only two home runs in each month. He also totaled just three stolen bases in July and one in August. More tough times could be ahead early in 2026.

Wood was in the fifth percentile of Whiff%, and he often posted high strikeout rates in the minor leagues. Despite the amazing potential he displayed last season, opposing pitchers are likely going to hunt for more holes in Wood’s swing, which could lead to more fantasy frustration than expected. Don’t push Wood up the board just yet in your 2026 drafts.

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