Identifying RB2 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Build-A-Breakout Workshop

Part 2 of John's running back fantasy football breakouts - going deeper with RB2 draft sleepers for 2025. His deeper fantasy football running back values.

Appreciate all your positive feedback on this breakout series; the readers here rock. Please keep feeling free to message me on social media with thoughts or questions -- I love hearing back from all of you. Electricity's in the air -- we're just a couple of weeks away from NFL football that counts, and the start to the best fantasy game on the planet. Are you jacked up or what?

We're spending this August at RotoBaller's Build-A-Breakout workshop on one of my favorite offseason exercises. Without so much as looking at ADP, I create a wish list of ideal statistical parameters -- then go back and try to find matches for fantasy bargains. It's all about the diamonds in the rough.

Even though our quarterback and running back pieces are wrapped up and in the bag, there's still no time to rest. Using a combination of volume/production, rush efficiency, and receiving metrics, we'll whittle down the back end of the RB player pool until we find the very best draft-day RB2 value by the numbers. NOTE: For this exercise, I defined a fantasy RB2 as a tailback handling between 35 and 150 touches last season.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) rankings
• Quarterback (QB) rankings
• Tight end (TE) rankings
• Defense (D/ST) rankings
• Kicker (K) rankings
• FLEX rankings
• Dynasty rankings

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Running Backs: Volume and Production

Of all 54 running backs between 35 and 150 touches in 2024, just a small portion stand out from the pack when compared under the microscope. Remember, nothing's more predictive of future production than fantasy scoring in the past -- so let's start with workload and production leaderboards.

Only 13 RB2s Averaged 40.0%+ Touch Per Snap Rate:

• Trey Benson, ARI — 52.7% Touch/Snap
• Cam Akers, HOU/MIN — 48.9% Touch/Snap
• Gus Edwards, LAC — 48.4% Touch/Snap
• Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 47.7% Touch/Snap
• Nick Chubb, CLE — 47.3% Touch/Snap
• Isiah Pacheco, KC — 46.1% Touch/Snap
• Zamir White, LV — 46.1% Touch/Snap
• Emanuel Wilson, GB — 44.9% Touch/Snap
• Sincere McCormick, LV — 42.9% Touch/Snap
• Ray Davis, BUF — 42.5% Touch/Snap
• Jaylen Wright, MIA — 41.8% Touch/Snap
• Audric Estime, DEN — 40.5% Touch/Snap
• Kendre Miller, NO — 40.0% Touch/Snap

Only 11 RB2s Scored 7.0+ Fantasy Points Per Game:

• Michael Carter, ARI — 11.9 Pt/Game
• Austin Ekeler, WAS — 11.0 Pt/Game
• Zack Moss, CIN — 10.2 Pt/Game
• Jerome Ford, CLE — 9.6 Pt/Game
• Tyjae Spears, TEN — 9.5 Pt/Game
• Justice Hill, BAL — 8.5 Pt/Game
• Isiah Pacheco, KC — 8.1 Pt/Game
• Nick Chubb, CLE — 7.9 Pt/Game
• Ameer Abdullah, LV — 7.8 Pt/Game
• Miles Sanders, CAR — 7.0 Pt/Game
• Ray Davis, BUF — 6.8 Pt/Game

Only Eight RB2s Earned 9.0+ Touches Per Game:

• Michael Carter, ARI — 15.3 Touches Per Game
• Isiah Pacheco, KC — 13.6 Touches Per Game
• Nick Chubb, CLE — 13.4 Touches Per Game
• Zack Moss, CIN — 12.1 Touches Per Game
• Jerome Ford, CLE — 10.1 Touches Per Game
• Tyjae Spears, TEN — 9.5 Touches Per Game
• Gus Edwards, LAC — 9.5 Touches Per Game
• Austin Ekeler, WAS — 9.3 Touches Per Game

Only Six RB2s Scored 0.40+ Fantasy Points Per Snap:

• Sean Tucker, TB — 0.63 Fantasy Points Per Snap
• Ray Davis, BUF — 0.47 Fantasy Points Per Snap
• Isaiah Davis, NYJ — 0.46 Fantasy Points Per Snap
• Isaac Guerendo, SF — 0.43 Fantasy Points Per Snap
• Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS — 0.41 Fantasy Points Per Snap
• Dameon Pierce, HOU — 0.40 Fantasy Points Per Snap

Only Four RB2s Handled 18+ Red-Zone Attempts:

• Gus Edwards, LAC — 20 Red-Zone Attempts
• Austin Ekeler, WAS — 20 Red-Zone Attempts
• Kenneth Gainwell, PHI — 20 Red-Zone Attempts
• Ray Davis, BUF — 18 Red-Zone Attempts

Sean Tucker
-Only went undrafted due to rare congenital heart defect
-1,751 yards 14 TDs as Soph
-1,308 yards 13 TDs as Junior
-38” vertical at pro day
-Had a game with 192 yards and 2 TDs last year while sharing time with Bucky Irving
-Rachaad White hurtpic.twitter.com/qbQvHjRbMF

— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) August 10, 2025

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Running Backs: Rushing Efficiency

Unlike target volume, which undisputedly must be earned, backfield touches are awarded and usually translate directly into points. However, we've seen plenty of RBs fail to provide weekly viability despite heavy workloads. Look no further than Javonte Williams out in Denver last year, posting RB1 touch counts for a month straight but just a back-end RB3 finish to show for it.

Having access to all sorts of fancy per-snap data opens the door to a slew of new efficiency stats. Since backup running backs need to shine in small samples, knowing how they measure up in more nuanced per-touch metrics adds an invaluable layer of context to the position.

Only 11 RB2s Eclipsed 4.9+ Yards Per Carry:

• Emari Demercado, ARI — 9.3 YPC
• Dameon Pierce, HOU — 7.3 YPC
• Sean Tucker, TB — 6.2 YPC
• Isaiah Davis, NYJ — 5.8 YPC
• Jerome Ford, CLE — 5.4 YPC
• Ty Johnson, BUF — 5.2 YPC
• Chris Brooks, GB — 5.1 YPC
• Isaac Guerendo, SF — 5.0 YPC
• Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS — 4.9 YPC
• Emanuel Wilson, GB — 4.9 YPC
• Justice Hill, BAL — 4.9 YPC

Only Nine RB2s Achieved 3.5+ Yards After Contact Per Attempt:

• Dameon Pierce, HOU — 6.90 YAC/Att
• Emari Demercado, ARI — 6.88 YAC/Att
• Isaiah Davis, NYJ — 4.20 YAC/Att
• Justice Hill, BAL — 4.19 YAC/Att
• Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS — 3.91 YAC/Att
• Antonio Gibson, NE — 3.91 YAC/Att
• Jeremy McNichols, WAS — 3.58 YAC/Att
• Jerome Ford, CLE — 3.50 YAC/Att
• Cordarrelle Patterson, PIT — 3.50 YAC/Att

Only Seven RB2s Exceeded 54.0%+ Success Rate:

• Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS — 63.0% Success Rate
• Isaiah Davis, NYJ — 60.0% Success Rate
• Ty Johnson, BUF — 59.0% Success Rate
• Emanuel Wilson, GB — 59.0% Success Rate
• Jeremy McNichols, WAS — 58.0% Success Rate
• Patrick Taylor Jr., SF — 54.0% Success Rate
• Michael Carter, ARI — 54.0% Success Rate

Only Five RB2s Topped 13.0%+ Explosive Rush Rate:

• Emari Demercado, ARI — 25.0% Explosive Rush
• Ty Johnson, BUF — 17.1% Explosive Rush
• Cam Akers, HOU/MIN — 14.1% Explosive Rush
• Sean Tucker, TB — 14.0% Explosive Rush
• Isaiah Davis, NYJ — 13.3% Explosive Rush

Only Three RB2s Earned 0.15+ Expected Points Added Per Rush:

• Emari Demercado, ARI — 0.48 EPA/Rush
• Sean Tucker, TB — 0.19 EPA/Rush
• Dameon Pierce, HOU — 0.15 EPA/Rush

Emari Demercado Turns Screen Into Six

Caught it short, hit the gas, and weaved 43 yards through the defense for a highlight-reel house call.

Trey Benson who?pic.twitter.com/FZEaBux0e3

— RotoLegends (@RotoLegends) August 11, 2025

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout RB2s: Receiving Upside

While I've consistently complained that running back receptions get weighted disproportionately, you can either be right or you can win. Like it or not, RBs who produce in the pass game provide a simultaneous fantasy ceiling and floor, especially on bad teams that constantly find themselves down late. Ignore dual-threat tailbacks at your own risk.

Only Six RB2s Earned 6.0%+ Team Target Share:

• Justice Hill, BAL — 11.2% Team Target Share
• Austin Ekeler, WAS — 8.1% Team Target Share
• Ameer Abdullah, LV — 7.9% Team Target Share
• Tyjae Spears, TEN — 6.9% Team Target Share
• Jerome Ford, CLE — 6.8% Team Target Share
• Samaje Perine, KC — 6.1% Team Target Share

Only Six RB2s Averaged 1.6+ Yards Per Route Run:

• Sean Tucker, TB — 2.6 YPRR
• Ray Davis, BUF — 1.9 YPRR
• Blake Corum, LAR — 1.8 YPRR
• Austin Ekeler, WAS — 1.7 YPRR
• Justice Hill, BAL — 1.7 YPRR
• Samaje Perine, KC — 1.6 YPRR

Only Three RB2s Scored 10.0+ Fantasy Points From The Slot:

• Austin Ekeler, WAS — 14.7 Slot Fantasy Points
• Ty Johnson, BUF — 10.3 Slot Fantasy Points
• Justice Hill, BAL — 10.2 Slot Fantasy Points

Austin Ekeler doesn’t look very washed to me. pic.twitter.com/EskWUT3Gyx

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 8, 2024

Identifying Fantasy Football Breakout Running Backs: Conclusion

There's a lot to unpack in the RB2 discussion, though perhaps simpler to boil down than RB1 due to the great reduction in risk. Oversimplifying this wide array of statistics down to sheer appearances yields two crystal clear backup values: Sean Tucker and Emari Demercado.

Unfortunately, a Rachaad White injury forced extra attention and immediate helium on Tucker, who's flying up boards recently. Regardless, he remains a value anywhere around ADP 200+. In the event of Bucky Irving missing time, Tucker could be the 1v1 replacement.

Conversely, Demercado goes widely undrafted, even in some of the deepest formats. The market told itself a story about Trey Benson as the locked-in handcuff behind James Conner in Arizona, and it's sticking to it.

While that may eventually shake out to be true, Demercado's unique mix of skills shouldn't be ignored in the final round of drafts -- he was the only player in the NFL to post both 20%+ explosive rush and target per route rates.

Last but not least is my favorite nugget from today's piece -- drafting last-round Dameon Pierce shares. With Nick Chubb failing to impress and Joe Mixon in a boot without a definitive timeline for return to action, why not Pierce in Houston?

In limited playing time (though mostly in a noncompetitive Week 18 tilt vs. TEN), the 25-year-old Pierce popped off, showing once again why he was a top-60 fantasy pick a few years ago.  It's an underdog to hit, but you don't need to squint that hard to see it happen amid some glowing reports from camp.

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