RADIO
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! After having zero NBA games due to the college basketball championship, we return tonight with a 14-game slate. This is also the last week of regular-season basketball. Enjoy it, cherish it, and also get excited for playoff basketball.
On Sunday, I had myself another 2-1 night. A Jaylen Brown step-back three with 0.6 seconds left in the first quarter was the only loss. Brown's shot extended the Celtics' first-quarter lead to six, causing the Blazers not to cover the 5.5-point spread. The Miami Heat had a thrilling comeback to cover the 2.5-point spread and the Orlando Magic took care of business at home, easily covering their 7.5-point spread. Aside from a 1-2 last Wednesday, I've had a good start to April. I'm 9–5 this month and have had a winning record in four of five articles.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, April 9. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Dallas Mavericks (+12.5) at Charlotte Hornets (221.5 total)
Dallas comes into this game off of a thrilling overtime victory against the Rockets on Sunday. My angle here is on the Hornets to cover the spread in the first quarter tonight.
The price of overtime usually means players play extended minutes. Luka Doncic (45), Kyrie Irving (44), and P.J. Washington (43) all logged heavy minutes in their game on Sunday. Going up against the 19-59 Hornets, the Mavericks will probably feel confident going into this game. That can often lead to underestimating teams, which I am banking on in this game.
Dallas is only 17-21 ATS in the opening quarter on the road this season. They are also just 3-7 ATS and 1-4 in their last five games covering the first quarter. Against the Rockets on Sunday night, they fell behind 42-27.
Charlotte is a respectable 3-1 ATS in their last four. Aside from a bad opening quarter that saw them put up 21 against the Blazers, they have scored 29, 38, and 32. Over that four-game stretch, the Hornets are averaging 30 points while hitting 56.5 percent of their FGAs and 46.7 percent from three. In four games this month, the Mavericks are allowing 33.3 points in the first quarter. Opponents are hitting 50.5 percent of their shots. On the other hand, the Hornets have held opponents to 33.3 percent from beyond the arc.
Charlotte is fourth in first-quarter offensive rating in their last four games. I think this team can score, and these guys are still playing hard out there. Dallas likely knows they can outlast them, so I'll take the points I can get in the opening 12 and hopefully call it a game after that.
OKAY HERE WE GO 😈 @iamnickrichards | @drpepper pic.twitter.com/QPRR0MeUC6
— Charlotte Hornets (@hornets) April 8, 2024
The Pick: Hornets First Quarter +4.5 (-115 PointsBet)
New York Knicks (-4) at Chicago Bulls (212.5 total)
The Knicks had maybe their best win of the season Sunday night in Milwaukee. Down 61-50 at halftime, they outscored the Bucks 72-48 in the final two quarters to convincingly win 122-109. It was a massive win for the Knicks, who are tied with the Magic for the third seed in the East and only one game behind the Bucks for No. 2. New York has unfortunately lost both season series to the Bucks and Magic, so they need every win they can get. What works in the Knicks' favor is that the Bucks and Magic play each other twice in their final four games. Someone has to lose, and the Knicks can capitalize by winning.
These two teams played on Friday night in Chicago, with the Bulls winning 108-100. The Knicks were on the second leg of a back-to-back and fell behind early, with a 16-point deficit at halftime. New York outscored Chicago 55-47 in the second half when they got their legs back under them and the game got close.
I'm taking the Knicks in this game. As mentioned above, they have a ton to play for to determine playoff seeding. I also just think they are the better team. New York is only 20 in defensive rating this month, but they haven't given up more than 109 in their four games. I look at the second half of the game against the Bulls Friday night as a more accurate depiction of this game. The Knicks outscored them 55-47, and that's how I see it playing out tonight.
Jalen Brunson is coming off a spectacular 43-point outing vs. the Bucks. He had 35 points and 11 assists against the Bulls. The Knicks are shooting 48.7 percent on FGAs and 40 percent from three in April. Both of those rank within the top eight. They have also done a great job of being aggressive and getting to the line.
They are limiting opponents to 82 FGAs per game. Chicago has scored 101, 108, and 98 points in their three games this month. The Bulls have not shot good percentages, and I like the Knicks to clip them on the road here.
In ELITE company 👏
keep going @jalenbrunson1 https://t.co/vJa8TxErVE pic.twitter.com/WEu9b4RXrN
— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) April 8, 2024
The Pick: Knicks -4 (-110 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Miami Heat (-4.5) at Atlanta Hawks (219.5 total)
I feel like the Hawks are always a team I pick against, so tonight I will be on their side. I'm not going to trust Atlanta for four quarters, but hopefully, they can give me a solid two.
In each team's last 10 games, they are scoring nearly the same amount of points per game. Miami shoots it slightly better on FGAs, while Atlanta shoots a better percentage from three and makes more per game.
The Heat have held opponents to 33 percent from three in their last 10 games, but they fall outside the top 15 in attempts allowed. Atlanta can exploit that if they can spread the ball and get shots up. In seven home games in March, the Hawks were 11th in first-half scoring among home teams.
I like the balance I'm seeing from the Hawks lately. Dejounte Murray is leading the way, averaging nearly 13 first-half points in his last 10 games. De'Andre Hunter (8.9), Bogdan Bogdanovic (8.0), Clint Capela (7.8), and Jalen Johnson (7.8) are all averaging over 7.5 points.
It's not going to be an easy task, as Miami will be motivated coming off that close loss to the Pacers. I'm avoiding taking the Hawks in the first quarter; I just don't feel good about it. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in the second quarter at home in their last 10 games. If they fall behind after 12 minutes, I'm hoping they can rebound with a good second.
Jalen walking on air 🤯 pic.twitter.com/DcnKfKE501
— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) April 7, 2024
The Pick: Hawks First Half +2.5 (-125 ESPN BET)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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