RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope you enjoyed a weekend filled with hoops. We have 11 games on the NBA slate tonight. Despite a ton of games, I'm going to continue to give my three favorite picks on the board.
Last night, I was able to go 3-0 and get the sweep. The Pelicans locked down the Pistons in the first half, Philadelphia didn’t even need the 3.5 points they were getting in the first quarter and the Bucks smashed the Thunder in Milwaukee. I came very close to a sweep on Friday night, so I was thrilled to get it last night. After last night’s events, I improved my post-All-Star break record to 33-20.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Monday, March 25. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Toronto Raptors (+6.5) at Brooklyn Nets (217 total)
The (sort of) frisky Toronto Raptors take on the Brooklyn Nets at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto has lost 10 straight, while Brooklyn has lost six straight. For anyone betting on the full-game spread or money line, I admire your patience if you sit and watch this entire game. My interest in this game will be in the first quarter, and I plan on tapping out after that (no offense to these teams).
Toronto has won their last two opening quarters, and I'm rolling with them to cover the spread. The Raptors put up 35 points on March 22 against the Thunder, winning the opening quarter 35-28. On Saturday night, Toronto held a 25-23 advantage after one quarter. Gradey Dick is leading the team, averaging 10.5 first-quarter points in his last two games. The 13th pick in the 2023 NBA is starting to look more comfortable on the court, and he has scored 17+ in his last two games.
Over their last two games, the Raptors have averaged 30 first-quarter points while hitting 51.1 percent of their FGAs. They have only hit 7-of-21 threes and 5-of-11 free throws, so there is room for growth there. Gradey Dick, Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, Kelly Olynyk, and Ochai Agbaji are all shooting over 50 percent on FGAs over their last two games. Gary Trent Jr. scored six points in the first quarter Saturday night and did not shoot it well. He's a player who can catch fire, so I hope for a bounceback tonight. Toronto is 12th in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating over its last two opening quarters.
I know the Nets beat the Knicks 30-28 in the first quarter at MSG on Saturday. I'm still playing the numbers game with them, and Brooklyn is still only 14-22 ATS in the first quarter on the road this season.
Sharing the love 👌 pic.twitter.com/V5huo2W1MQ
— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) March 24, 2024
The Pick: Raptors First Quarter +2.5 (-115 FanDuel)
Dallas Mavericks (-7.5) at Utah Jazz (238 total)
These two teams played in Dallas on Thursday, with the Mavericks winning 113-97. Normally, I would say this is a revenge spot for the losing team, but I just think Dallas is a lot better. Utah is 22-12 ATS at home this season, so I'll avoid taking the Mavericks to cover the full game spread. Where they haven't been as strong this season is in the first half. Will Hardy's team is an NBA-worst 27-44 ATS in the first half. On the road, they are 12–24, and at home, they are 15–20.
Against the Mavericks on March 21, the Jazz held a 27-26 lead after the first quarter. Dallas outscored them 27-15 in the second quarter to have a 53-42 halftime lead. Utah did shoot 1-for-15 from three, and I don't think that will happen again, but Dallas also averages 60 first-half points and only scored 53. In their last 10 games, the Mavericks are shooting 50.7 percent on FGA's in the opening two quarters. They are also only hitting 32.4 percent of their shots from deep, and this team is normally a little better than 37 percent.
Luka Doncic had 21 points, five assists, and four rebounds in that 53-42 halftime win on Thursday. Utah had no answer for him and not many teams have. The Mavericks superstar is averaging an NBA-leading 19.3 points in the first 24 minutes of action. In the last 10 games, Dallas is eighth in offensive rating and a very respectable 14th in defensive rating in the first half of games. These games are incredibly meaningful for Dallas, and I think they start strong.
Utah is 20th in offensive rating and dead-last in defensive rating in its last ten games. Houston crushed the Jazz 85-55 in the first half of their game on Saturday night.
Check out our Top 🖐️ Plays of the Week!@att // #MFFL pic.twitter.com/ztjPeFt4vm
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) March 24, 2024
The Pick: Mavericks First Half -3.5 (-120 PointsBet)
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Philadelphia 76ers (+9) at Sacramento Kings (218 total)
Philadelphia picked up an excellent road win against the Clippers last night. The Sixers won 121-107 as 8.5-point favorites. A lot of Sixers players played minutes in the mid-20s, but Tyrese Maxey (44) and Tobias Harris (37) played heavier minutes. I took the Sixers to cover the 3.5-point spread in the first quarter yesterday, and they won 41-29 outright. I don't like Philly tonight, but I'm not going to pick against them spread-wise in the first quarter of this game.
My angle is on Sacramento's team total in the opening quarter. With the Sixers on the second leg of a back-to-back off of a huge win, I like the Kings offense to score early. Mike Brown's team is averaging 30.5 points in the first quarter at Golden 1 Center this season. The Kings are hitting 50.1 percent of their FGAs and 41.1 percent from three. Philadelphia has been good on defense in its last five games, but they are allowing 23.6 first-quarter FGAs, which is 24th in the NBA.
If Sacramento can get some volume, the numbers tell us they should put points up. The Kings are seventh in first-quarter offensive rating this season and fourth in true shooting percentage. Sacramento plays with the eighth-fastest first-quarter pace, and I'm hoping they can speed it up and score quickly tonight.
COUNT IT 🗣️
Fox fights through contact for the and-one opportunity. pic.twitter.com/iAliap6my1
— Sacramento Kings (@SacramentoKings) March 24, 2024
The Pick: Kings First Quarter Team Total Over 29.5 (-125 FanDuel)
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