February 10, 2018

Tiered rankings analysis of 2018 NFL Draft rookies for the quarterback position. Matt Wispe's top QBs for fantasy football dynasty league rookie drafts.

In my recent 2018 NFL Draft prospect preview series, I provided an introduction of the most noteworthy players in the order that they are currently projected to be drafted, but I didn't entire lay out my personal rankings.

In this space, I will break down each tier of my 2018 NFL rookie rankings by position, beginning with the all-important quarterback spot.

These rankings are likely to change once the NFL Combine takes place, but for the time being they should give dynasty owners a sense of what to look for in upcoming rookie drafts.

Pre-Combine Rookie QB Rankings

 
Tier 1

Baker Mayfield is the cream of the crop in this draft class at this part of the evaluation process. His production was already elite in 2016 and he managed to improve upon it despite losing three key players to the NFL. If Mayfield were taller, there would be no question about drafting him at number one overall. The only other concerns surrounding Mayfield is off-field comparisons to Johnny Manziel. I specifically say off-field because on-field, Mayfield was better across the board, statistically.

If Mayfield's potential off-field concerns hurts his draft stock, he'll come back down to the rest of the class, but based on current information, he looks like the next great QB.

Sam Darnold is the closest to Mayfield because he has the physical traits to go along with his production and he's a near-lock to be drafted in the top five.  Despite experiencing regression from his 2016 season, he still posted an 8.50 AYA with a 63.1 completion percentage and he ended his college career with an 8.72 AYA and 64.89 completion percentage. And one of the lesser discussed possible reasons for his regression is the lack of a bye week for the team until PAC12 championship game.

Tier 2

With the right coordinator, Lamar Jackson could be the top QB in the class. Concerns surrounding Jackson are his reliance on running the ball and potential injury risks associated with running, but he didn't suffer a meaningful injury despite eclipsing 230 carries each of his final two seasons. His final season 59.1 completion percentage is a little low, but he improved his completion percentage each year.

Josh Allen sneaks his way into Tier 2 because of his draft stock. If Allen were a second-round pick, he'd be towards the bottom of my Tier 3. His career completion percentage of 56.24% and back-to-back seasons under 60% is a major concern. Despite playing well, Allen was only the second-best small-school QB in the Senior Bowl game.

Tier 3

Kyle Lauletta is the other small-school prospect, but he managed to have a 63.5 career completion percentage with lower-level surrounding talent. He performed well at the Senior Bowl practices and threw for 198 yards and three TD on 12 attempts in the Senior Bowl game.

Luke Falk is a QB often lumped in the with second tier of QBs in the class, but his production doesn't entirely justify the praise. His raw production in 2015 and 2016 was elite, but he struggled in 2017 and saw his AYA drop by nearly ten percent in his final year and his interceptions increase despite throwing 99 fewer passes.

Tier 4

J.T. Barrett is an intriguing option in the back half of the draft because he's the most experienced prospect and brings mobility. He rushed for at least 600 yards each of his four years as a starter. There are concerns about his accuracy because he tends to struggle more on deep throws (He completed only 28.5 percent of his deep passes in 2017). Despite these deep-throw struggles, he has a career completion percentage of 63.5. With a strong coordinator, he could become a viable backup QB.

Until it comes to fruition that he'll be drafted among the top seven or eight QB prospects, Kurt Benkert will appear to be a massively overrated prospect in my book. He never had a full season over 60 percent completion percentage and his peak AYA was under 6.5. Seemingly his only selling point is height.

Tier 5

Chase Litton has the ideal size to become a QB in the NFL and production that gives reason to believe. His 60.8 career completion percentage and 2.3 to 1 TD to INT ratio give reason to be optimistic. It's unlikely he'll be drafted early enough to warrant rising up the tiers, but his talent appears to warrant a look.

Tanner Lee had moments during the Senior Bowl practices that raised eyebrows, but was generally inconsistent and his college career doesn't alleviate the concerns. His career completion percentage is only 55.2 percent and he never had a season with an AYA over 7.0.

More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy